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  • 1
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper introduces new data on the term in office of central bank governors in 137 countries for 1970-2004. Our panel models show that the probability that a central bank governor is replaced in a particular year is positively related to the share of the term in office elapsed, political and regime instability, the occurrence of elections, and inflation. The latter result suggests that the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) is a poor indicator of central bank independence. This is confirmed in models for cross-section inflation in which TOR becomes insignificant once its endogeneity is taken into account.
    Keywords: E5 ; ddc:330 ; Zentralbank ; Führungskräfte ; Arbeitsmobilität ; Zentralbankautonomie ; Inflation ; Schätzung ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-20
    Description: We investigate whether elected members of the United Nations Security Council receive favorable treatment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), analyzing panel data on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the period of 1992 to 2008. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions attached to the loans that they receive from the IMF. We conclude that conditionality is softer for these countries because the major shareholders of the IMF desire influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; Voting ; Aid ; Conditionality ; Nationalstaat ; Regierung ; Mitgliedschaft ; Internationale Organisation ; Glaubwürdigkeit ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable variable. In this paper, we examine whether the real-time estimates of the output gap as published by the OECD can be improved by referring to measures of physical capital capacity utilisation from business tendency surveys. These data relate directly to the stress on the current capacity to produce goods and services and are not revised. Our real-time panel data set comprises 22 countries at an annual frequency with data vintages from 1995 to 2009. We show that the real-time output gaps are informationally inefficient in the sense that survey data available in real time can help produce estimates that are significantly closer to later releases of output gap estimates.
    Keywords: D24 ; E32 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; output gap ; capacity utilisation ; real-time analysis ; survey data ; survey data ; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion ; Kapazitätsauslastung ; Befragung ; Informationswert ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-23
    Description: This study applies parametric distance functions to estimate the efficiency of foreign banks in Australia, and subsequently employs extreme bounds analysis to establish the determinants of foreign bank efficiency that are robust to model specification. The limited global advantage hypothesis of Berger et al (2000) is supported. Following clients is found to reduce the efficiency of the profit-creation process. The market share of the incumbent banks acts as a barrier to entry to efficiency in the retail market, with acquisition of a domestic bank reducing this effect. Internet-based bank product delivery reduces the efficiency of profit creation in the initial phases of operation, and parent profits do not improve efficiency in the host market.
    Keywords: C52 ; C15 ; G15 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; foreign bank efficiency ; distance functions ; extreme bounds analysis ; barriers to entry ; following clients ; Internationale Bank ; Technische Effizienz ; Wirtschaftliche Effizienz ; Schätzung ; Australien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: Bailouts sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are famous for their conditionality: in return for continued installments of desperately needed loans, governments must comply with austere policy changes. Many have suggested, however, that politically important countries face rather weak stringency. Obstacles to testing this hypothesis include finding a measure of political importance that is not plagued by endogeneity and obtaining data on IMF conditionality. We propose to measure political importance using temporary membership on the United Nations Security Council and analyze a newly available dataset on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the 1992 to 2008 period. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions. This suggests that the major shareholders of the IMF trade softer conditionality in return for political influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; voting ; aid ; conditionality
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Hartwig (2008) has presented empirical evidence that the difference between real wage growth and productivity growth at the macroeconomic level is a robust explanatory variable for deflated health-care expenditure growth in OECD countries. In this paper, we test whether this finding is robust to the inclusion of additional covariates, applying different versions of Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to data for 33 OECD countries over the period 1970-2010. As far as it is statistically feasible, all macroeconomic and institutional determinants of health-care expenditure growth that have been suggested in the literature are included in the EBA. Furthermore, we analyse to what extent outliers in the data influence the results using an outlier-robust MM estimator. Our results confirm Hartwig's earlier finding. A number of additional both covariate- and outlier-robust determinants are also identified.
    Keywords: C12 ; C23 ; I10 ; ddc:330 ; Health-care expenditure ; unbalanced growth ; Extreme Bounds Analysis ; MM estimator ; OECD panel ; Gesundheitskosten ; Reallohn ; Produktivität ; Ungleichgewichtiges Wachstum ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Bailouts sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are famous for their conditionality: in return for continued installments of desperately needed loans, governments must comply with austere policy changes. Many have suggested, however, that politically important countries face rather weak stringency. Obstacles to testing this hypothesis include finding a measure of political importance that is not plagued by endogeneity and obtaining data on IMF conditionality. We propose to measure political importance using temporary membership on the United Nations Security Council and analyze a newly available dataset on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the 1992 to 2008 period. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions. This suggests that the major shareholders of the IMF trade softer conditionality in return for political influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; Voting ; Aid ; Conditionality ; IWF-Kredit ; Internationale Wirtschaftsorganisation ; Mitgliedschaft ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: We use real-time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and subsequent revisions. It turns out that revisions in the fiscal balance data are not affected by elections. However, we do find that governments spend more than reported before an election which provides support for moral-hazard type of political budget cycle (PBC) models: through hidden efforts the incumbent tries to enhance his perceived competence. We also find that governments had higher current receipts than reported before an election, which is in line with adverse-selection type of PBC models in which incumbents signal competence through expansionary fiscal policy before the elections.
    Keywords: D72 ; E62 ; H6 ; H83 ; P16 ; ddc:330 ; real-time data ; political budget cycles ; OECD ; Finanzpolitik ; Politischer Konjunkturzyklus ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: This paper empirically investigates the economic and political factors that affect a country's likelihood to sign an arrangement with the IMF and the determinants of the financial size of such a program. Arguably the world and the global financial architecture underwent structural changes after the ending of Cold War and so did the role of the IMF. Hence, we update and extend the work of Sturm et al. (2005) by employing a panel model for 165 countries that focuses on the post-Cold War era, i.e., 1990-2009. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that some economic and political variables are robustly related to these two dimensions of IMF program decisions. Furthermore, we show that it is important to distinguish between concessional and non-concessional IMF loans.
    Keywords: O19 ; F33 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; lending facilities ; extreme bounds analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Unknown
    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable variable. In this paper, we examine whether the real-time estimates of the output gap as published by the OECD can be improved by referring to measures of physical capital capacity utilisation from business tendency surveys. These data relate directly to the stress on the current capacity to produce goods and services and are not revised. Our real-time panel data set comprises 22 countries at an annual frequency with data vintages from 1995 to 2009. We show that the real-time output gaps are informationally inefficient in the sense that survey data available in real time can help produce estimates that are significantly closer to later releases of output gap estimates.
    Keywords: D24 ; E32 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Output gap ; capacity utilisation ; real-time analysis ; survey data ; Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion ; Kapazitätsauslastung ; Befragung ; Informationswert ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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