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  • E31  (21)
  • J61  (18)
  • Astronomy  (15)
  • J24  (15)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: This article examines the causal relations between non-European immigration and the characteristics of the housing market in host regions. We constructed a unique database from administrative records and used it to assess annual migration flows into France's 22 administrative regions from 1990 to 2013. We then estimated various panel VAR models, taking into account GDP per capita and the unemployment rate as the main regional economic indicators. We find that immigration has no significant effect on property prices, but that higher property prices significantly reduce immigration rates. We also find no significant relationship between immigration and social housing supply.
    Keywords: E20 ; F22 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; immigration ; property prices ; social housing ; panel VAR
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: We estimate a 'Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve' for Argentina between 1993 and 2007. We extend the model to a small open economy, considering separately the influence of nominal devaluation and foreign inflation on domestic prices. For the whole sample, we find that forward and backward-looking components are relevant although the backward-looking term weights more in determining inflation dynamics. We test for parameter stability and find a break-point in 2002 along with the regime change. In line with recent literature on trend inflation, when trend inflation increases, the influence of the output gap weakens and the curve becomes more forward-looking.
    Keywords: C5 ; E31 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation dynamics ; Phillips Curve ; small open economy ; New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: In this paper we analyze the impact of immigrants on the type and quantity of native jobs. We use data on fifteen Western European countries during the 1996-2010 period. We find that immigrants, by taking manual-routine type of occupations pushed natives towards more complex (abstract and communication) jobs. Such positive reallocation occurred while the total number of jobs held by natives was unaffected. This job upgrade was associated in the short run to a 0.6% increase in native wages for a doubling of the immigrants' share. These results are robust to the use of two alternative IV strategies based on past settlement of immigrants across European countries measured alternatively with Census or Labor Force data. The job upgrade slowed, but did not come to a halt, during the Great Recession. We also document the labor market flows behind it: the complexity of jobs offered to new native hires was higher relative to the complexity of lost jobs. Finally, we find evidence that such reallocation was significantly larger in countries with more flexible labor laws and that his tendency was particularly strong for less educated workers.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; Immigration ; Jobs ; Task specialization ; Employment Protection Laws ; Europe
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and Inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run adding extra noise to that usually present at high frequencies. High inflation also leads to ideosyncratic movements in prices that do not cancel out, adding persistence to the process. When inflation is low, no long-run interaction between variables is expected. This is the case of the US, even though supply shocks are comparable to those of the seventies when trend inflation was high. Surprisingly, the findings for Argentina do not support the a-priori as both variables show significant long term comovement. Studying disaggregate price responses to common shocks helps to understand sectoral pattens behind these dynamics. Our results suggest that long run variablity in inflation can be induced, not only by a high trend inflation, but also by policy stabilization efforts based on relative price adjustments.
    Keywords: C22 ; C43 ; E31 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; inflation ; frequency domain analysis ; regime ; common shocks ; monetary policy ; relative prices ; Inflation ; Relativer Preis ; Theorie ; Argentinien ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation forecast ; multivariate models ; pooling ; univariate models ; Inflation ; Prognose ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 6
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: This paper charts the complex dynamics of the movement of technical talent in the world economy and assesses broadly the impact of such mobility on both sending and receiving countries. Based on secondary data and primary information from the Indian and Japanese IT industry, the study presents a global view of the movement of talent and its development and policy implications. By synthesizing disparate data and the multifaceted processes and outcomes of international mobility, the paper examines some of the distributional issues of gains and losses in both sending and receiving countries.
    Keywords: F22 ; I28 ; J24 ; L86 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; education ; government policy ; human capital ; skills ; information services ; computer software ; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität ; Humankapital ; Softwareindustrie ; Indien ; Japan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The paper first discusses the main sources of concern for people in the perspective of professional mobility abroad as they result from the analysis of the Eurobarometer survey, wave 75.1 of 2011. Second, it tests whether portability of social security within Europe is a determinant of intra-EU mobility. It does this by using Eurobarometer data for the estimation of a multinomial logit model with a propensity matching scheme in which those that made the experience of social security transfer in the past (either difficult or easy) are compared to those that never had such experience. The results suggest that an easy experience with the transfer of social security across countries may increase the propensity to move abroad for professional reasons. In contrast, difficulties are likely to negatively affect mobility incentives. The sign of the effect is stable across countries, but intensity varies depending on the group of countries considered being them EU-15 or EU-12.
    Keywords: J61 ; J62 ; H55 ; C25 ; ddc:330 ; labour mobility ; portability ; social protection ; European Union
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: The objective here is to understand how the mobility of technical talent might be changing the structural relationship between rich and poor countries. This paper examines the under-researched relationship between India and Japan in the context of globalization, migration, and developmental impact with demographic, immigration, and innovation policy issues as key themes. By focusing on the export of technical talent, I argue that India could tap its overseas ‘brain bank’ by diversifying IT export markets, create epistemic networks, meet impending skill shortages in Japan, and induce long-term innovative capability. Immigration reforms and freer movement of talent will be critical.
    Keywords: F22 ; J24 ; O19 ; O57 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; technical talent ; IT industry ; innovation and development ; ‘brain bank’ ; India ; Japan ; Brain Drain ; Informationstechnik ; Globalisierung ; Indien ; Japan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-06-08
    Description: We report on the discovery and follow-up timing observations of a 63-ms radio pulsar, PSR J1105-6107. We show that the pulsar is young, having a characteristic age of only 63kyr. We consider its possible association with the nearby remnant G290.1-0.8 (MSH 11-61A) but uncertainties in the distances and ages preclude a firm conclusion.
    Keywords: Astronomy
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