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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2011-03-29
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms on birth cohorts. Cohort effects estimated on the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles, in particular in East Germany and for people with little education. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:conferenceObject
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-02-21
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; Westdeutsche Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Die Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt in den letzten Jahrzehnten und die jüngsten Rentenreformen werden sich erheblich auf die Rentenansprüche künftiger Rentnergenerationen auswirken. Dies zeigt eine aktuelle Studie des DIW Berlin im Auftrag der Deutschen Rentenversicherung. Während die Entwicklung in Westdeutschland auch künftig durch ein relativ stabiles durchschnittliches Rentenniveau der Männer und einen Anstieg der Rentenanwartschaften bei den Frauen gekennzeichnet ist, muss in Ostdeutschland sowohl bei den Frauen als auch bei den Männern mit einem deutlichen Rückgang der durchschnittlichen Rentenansprüche der jüngeren Geburtskohorten gegenüber dem bisherigen Rentenniveau gerechnet werden. Dies ist vor allem auf die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit nach der Wende und damit einhergehende unvollständige Erwerbsbiografien sowie auf geringe Löhne im Osten zurückzuführen. In geringerem Umfang wirken sich auch die Reformen zur Stabilisierung der Finanzierung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung aus. Schreibt man diese Entwicklungen fort, so sinkt der durchschnittliche Rentenzahlbetrag der jüngeren ostdeutschen Geburtskohorten unter das durchschnittliche Niveau der Grundsicherung im Alter. Sollte sich der Arbeitsmarkt indes günstiger als hier in einem Basisszenario angenommen entwickeln, wird dieser negative Trend zwar nicht aufgehoben, aber deutlich abgeschwächt.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Old-age pension ; Lifetime employment ; Cohort effects ; Altersvorsorge ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Rentenfinanzierung ; Westdeutsche Bundesländer ; Ostdeutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Neue Bundesländer ; Alte Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: Die Tochter und der Sohn, die neben der Arbeit ihre Eltern pflegen oder sich um ihre nicht mehr mobile Nachbarin kümmern: Informelle Pflegetätigkeiten sind eine zentrale Stütze des deutschen Pflegesystems - insbesondere angesichts der alternden Bevölkerung und des damit einhergehenden steigenden Pflegebedarfs. Zwischen fünf und sechs Prozent aller Erwachsenen leisten regelmäßig informelle Pflege, wie das DIW Berlin auf Grundlage von Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) für die Jahre 2001 bis 2012 berechnet hat. Rund 60 Prozent dieser Frauen und Männer sind im erwerbsfähigen Alter. Der Anteil der Erwerbstätigen an allen informell Pflegenden unter 65 Jahren ist von knapp 53 auf fast 66 Prozent gestiegen. Bei den Vollzeitbeschäftigten war der Anstieg stärker als bei den Teilzeitbeschäftigten, wenngleich Vollzeitbeschäftigte im Durchschnitt wesentlich seltener Pflege und Beruf kombinieren. Es stellt sich die Frage, wie Erwerbs- und Pflegetätigkeit besser miteinander vereinbart werden können. Denn der Bedarf an (informeller) Pflege wird infolge des demografischen Wandels weiter steigen. Der vorliegende Bericht zeigt, dass informell Pflegende allgemein und mit der sozialen Sicherung weniger zufrieden sind als Personen, die keine Pflege leisten. Allerdings geben die Daten an dieser Stelle keinen Hinweis darauf, dass eine gleichzeitige Erwerbstätigkeit diesen Effekt verstärkt.
    Description: The daughter and son who take care of their parents or look after their neighbor who is no longer mobile while working at the same time: informal care is a central pillar of the German care system - particularly with regard to the aging population and the resultant increase in the demand for care. Between five and six percent of all adults regularly provide informal care according to DIW Berlin's calculations for the years 2001 to 2012 on the basis of data from the Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP). Around 60 percent of these women and men are of working age. The proportion of people in employment among all informal carers below 65 years of age has risen from just under 53 to almost 66 percent. The increase was greater among full-time than part-time employees although those in full-time work combine caregiving and career significantly less frequently on average. The question arises how work and caregiving could be better reconciled because the need for (informal) care will continue to increase due to demographic change. The present report shows that informal carers are less satisfied in general and also with social security than those who do not provide informal care. However, the data give no indication that working at the same time amplifies this effect.
    Keywords: J22 ; H31 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; long-term care ; labor supply ; life-satisfaction
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Angesichts der Alterung der Bevölkerung rückt die adäquate Versorgung Hilfe- und Pflegebedürftiger immer stärker ins Blickfeld der öffentlichen Diskussion. Obwohl gegenwärtig in nahezu allen europäischen Staaten staatliche Pflegeleistungen gewährt werden, unterscheiden sie sich beträchtlich im Umfang und nach den Arten der gewährten Leistungen. Dieser Beitrag zeigt anhand von fünf ausgewählten Ländern, wie der Bedarf an Hilfe und Pflege durch die unterschiedlichen Pflegesettings gedeckt wird. Einbezogen wurden die Länder Dänemark, Deutschland, Italien, Polen und Slowakei. Diese Länder decken das Spektrum unterschiedlicher Pflegesysteme in Europa ab: von einem umfassenden Wohlfahrtstaat in Dänemark bis zu einem praktisch nicht existieren Pflegesystem in Polen. In den fünf Staaten sind insgesamt 15,5 Millionen Personen hilfe- und pflegebedürftig. Nur ein Teil dieser Personen erhält staatliche Pflegeleistungen. In Dänemark ist dieser Anteil mit 59 Prozent am höchsten, in Polen mit 12 Prozent am niedrigsten. Deutschland (31 Prozent), Italien (34 Prozent einschließlich der Geldleistungsbezieher für Schwerbehinderte) und Slowakei (24 Prozent) liegen dazwischen. Ein Großteil der Hilfe- und Pflegebedürftigen ist somit auf familiäre Pflege und Hilfe angewiesen. Angesichts der Alterung der Bevölkerung und auch der Pflegekräfte kommt der Unterstützung familiärer Pflegekräfte eine hohe Bedeutung zu.
    Description: Due to demographic ageing the number of people in need of long-term care is expected to increase markedly in the coming decades. The public debate focuses on the question of how to organize an adequate provision of long-term care. Almost all European countries provide some support for long-term care. However, national care systems differ in both types and scale of support. This article shows for five selected EU countries how and if demand for long-term care is met by a mix of formal and informal care. We analyse Germany, Denmark, Poland, Italy and Slovakia which represent the variation of care regimes across Europe. In these five countries, about 15 million people report permanent impairments in daily living. However, only a fraction receives formal long-term care. The share is highest in Denmark (59 percent) and lowest in Poland (12 percent). Germany (31 percent), Italy (34 percent), and Slovakia (24 percent) are in between these two extremes. A large share of the frail elderly is dependent on informal help by family members. In the face of an ageing population and an ageing long-term care workforce, family care is an important pillar of all care systems.
    Keywords: I11 ; I18 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Long-term care systems ; care recipients ; informal caregivers ; long-term care workforce
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-03-13
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Neue Bundesländer ; Alte Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-03-13
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Neue Bundesländer ; Alte Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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