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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2011-03-29
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms on birth cohorts. Cohort effects estimated on the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles, in particular in East Germany and for people with little education. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-02-21
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; Westdeutsche Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Die Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt in den letzten Jahrzehnten und die jüngsten Rentenreformen werden sich erheblich auf die Rentenansprüche künftiger Rentnergenerationen auswirken. Dies zeigt eine aktuelle Studie des DIW Berlin im Auftrag der Deutschen Rentenversicherung. Während die Entwicklung in Westdeutschland auch künftig durch ein relativ stabiles durchschnittliches Rentenniveau der Männer und einen Anstieg der Rentenanwartschaften bei den Frauen gekennzeichnet ist, muss in Ostdeutschland sowohl bei den Frauen als auch bei den Männern mit einem deutlichen Rückgang der durchschnittlichen Rentenansprüche der jüngeren Geburtskohorten gegenüber dem bisherigen Rentenniveau gerechnet werden. Dies ist vor allem auf die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit nach der Wende und damit einhergehende unvollständige Erwerbsbiografien sowie auf geringe Löhne im Osten zurückzuführen. In geringerem Umfang wirken sich auch die Reformen zur Stabilisierung der Finanzierung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung aus. Schreibt man diese Entwicklungen fort, so sinkt der durchschnittliche Rentenzahlbetrag der jüngeren ostdeutschen Geburtskohorten unter das durchschnittliche Niveau der Grundsicherung im Alter. Sollte sich der Arbeitsmarkt indes günstiger als hier in einem Basisszenario angenommen entwickeln, wird dieser negative Trend zwar nicht aufgehoben, aber deutlich abgeschwächt.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Old-age pension ; Lifetime employment ; Cohort effects ; Altersvorsorge ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Rentenfinanzierung ; Westdeutsche Bundesländer ; Ostdeutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Neue Bundesländer ; Alte Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Die Einkommenswirkungen und sozialpolitischen Folgen einer Erhöhung des gesetzlichen Renteneintrittsalters unterscheiden sich stark nach der individuellen Erwerbsbiographie und der Arbeitsmarktsituation älterer Arbeitnehmer. Mit Hilfe von Modellrechnungen zeigen wir, wie sich die Einkommenssituation von Rentnern mit unterschiedlichen Erwerbsbiographien durch die Einführung der gesetzlichen Rente mit 67 verändert. Ferner nutzen wir Daten des Scientific Use Files der Rentenzugangsstatistik 2006, um die Risikogruppen dieser Reform zu identifizieren. Die einfache Diagnose, dass die Rente mit 67 ein Rentensenkungsprogramm ist, kann nicht aufrechterhalten werden. Es zeigt sich vielmehr, dass das Armutsproblem, das der Rente mit 67 oft angelastet wird, in erster Linie ein Arbeitsmarktproblem darstellt.
    Description: The distributional effect of the increase in the compulsory retirement age depends markedly on the individual employment history and the labor market situation. Based on model simulations and administrative data (Scientific Use Files der Rentenzugangsstatistik 2006) we analyze the income effect increasing the compulsory retirement age from 65 to 67 in Germany and identify risk groups. We show that increasing the pensionable age is not the central reason for poverty of pensioners; this problem is mainly related to bad labor market situation of risk groups.
    Keywords: C63 ; D31 ; H55 ; ddc:330 ; Erhöhung des gesetzlichen Renteneintrittsalters ; Einkommenswirkungen ; Altersarmut
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 6
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    Berlin: Duncker & Humblot
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Auswertungen auf Basis der Daten der Zulagenstelle für Altersvermögen (ZfA) zeigen einen hohen Anteil der Geringverdiener unter den Riester-Sparern. Dieses Ergebnis kann aber nicht auf die Bevölkerung übertragen werden, da die Daten nur die Riester-Sparer umfassen. Auswertungen auf Basis des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) zeigen, dass die Verbreitung der Riester-Rente bei Personen und Haushalten mit geringem Einkommen unterdurchschnittlich ist. Dieses Ergebnis zeigt sich sowohl bei nominalem und äquivalenzgewichtetem Haushaltseinkommen als auch bei individuellem Monatsbruttoeinkommen und Bruttostundenlohn. Die geringste Verbreitung findet sich bei Personen, die über kein Erwerbseinkommen verfügen.
    Description: Analyses based on data from the Zulagenstelle für Altersvermögen (ZfA) show a high proportion of low wage earners among Riester-Rente savers. This result cannot be generalized to the population because the data include only Riester-Rente savers. However, analyses based on the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) show that the demand for Riester plans by low income individuals and households is below average. This result is reflected both by household and personal income measures. The lowest share is found for individuals without earned income.
    Keywords: H55 ; G23 ; D14 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; Riester pension ; low-wage earner ; take-up of Riester subsidies
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 7
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2017-10-02
    Description: Unemployment benefits are one important option to bridge time between employment exit and claiming retirement benefits for older workers. We develop an option value model that explicitly accounts for the pension system and unemployment insurance in Germany. We use administrative panel data and implement the model for female birth cohorts of 1940 to 1949, exploiting exogenous variation in social security wealth by the pension reform 1992 and the reform of unemployment benefits in 2004.
    Keywords: H55 ; J14 ; J22 ; J26 ; J65 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-03-13
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Neue Bundesländer ; Alte Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-03-13
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Neue Bundesländer ; Alte Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-06-19
    Description: Im Bericht werden die Auswirkungen eines zukünftig sinkenden Rentenniveaus auf das Ausmaß der Altersarmut in verschiedenen Szenarien untersucht. Das verfügbare Haushaltseinkommen wird anhand eines Querschnittes von Daten aus dem Jahr 2015 simuliert. Von sonstigen Verhaltensänderungen wird explizit abgesehen. Armut wird dabei anhand zweier üblicher Indikatoren gemessen: der Armutsrisikoquote und der Grundsicherungsquote im Alter. Die Simulation der künftigen Armutsentwicklung bis ins Jahr 2045 zeigt in allen Szenarien einen Anstieg der Armutsrisikoquote im Alter an. Die Entwicklung der Grundsicherungsquote ist hingegen vergleichsweise stärker von den getroffenen Annahmen zur Fortschreibung der Preis- und Unterkunftskostenentwicklung abhängig. Der erwartete Anstieg der Armutsrisikoquote weist auf einen Handlungsbedarf des Gesetzgebers hin. Zur Einkommenssicherung bei einkommensschwachen Haushalten bieten sich vor allem Reformen der kollektiven Alterssicherungssysteme an, da hier gezielt umverteilt werden kann. Das kann innerhalb der gesetzlichen Rente auch in der kurzen Frist erreicht werden. Für die längere Frist wäre zum Beispiel der Ausbau der betrieblichen Altersvorsorge insbesondere für Personen mit unterdurchschnittlichem Einkommen eine Möglichkeit.
    Keywords: H55 ; I32 ; J14 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; public pensions ; poverty ; pension reform
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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