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  • 1
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: We present quasi-experimental evidence on the employment effects of an unprecedented large increase in the early retirement age (ERA). Raising the ERA has the potential to extend contribution periods and to reduce the number of pension beneficiaries at the same time, if employment exits are successfully delayed. However, workers may not be able to work longer or may choose other social support programs as exit routes from employment. We study the effects of the ERA increase on employment and potential program substitution in a regression-discontinuity framework. Germany abolished an important early retirement program for women born after 1951, effectively raising the ERA for women by three years. We analyze the effects of this huge increase on employment, unemployment, disability pensions, and inactivity rates. Our results suggest that the reform increased both employment and unemployment rates of women age 60 and over. However, we do not find evidence for active program substitution from employment into alternative social support programs. Instead employed women remained employed and unemployed women remained unemployed. The results suggest an increase in inequality within the affected cohorts.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; early retirement ; regression discontinuity ; pension reform ; unemployment ; labor supply ; disability pension
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-07-18
    Description: We evaluate the labor market and distributional effects of an increase in the early retirement age (ERA) from 60 to 63 for women. We use a regression discontinuity design which exploits the immediate increase in the ERA between women born in 1951 and 1952. The analysis is based on the German micro census which includes about 370,000 households per year. We focus on heterogeneous labor market effects on the individual and on the household level and we study the distributional implications using net household income. In this respect we extend the previous literature which mainly studied employment effects on the individual level. Our results show sizable labor market effects which strongly differ by subgroups. We document larger employment effects for women who cannot rely on other income on the household level, e.g. women with a low income partner. The distributional analysis shows on average no significant effects on female or household income. This result holds as well for heterogeneous groups: Even for the most vulnerable groups, such as single women, women without higher education, or low partner income, we do not find significant reductions in income. One reason for this result is program substitution.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; pension reform ; labor supply ; early retirement ; distributional effects ; spillover effects ; household
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-11-27
    Description: We evaluate the labor market and distributional effects of an increase in the early retirement age (ERA) from 60 to 63 for women. We use a regression discontinuity design which exploits the immediate increase in the ERA between women born in 1951 and 1952. The analysis is based on the German micro census which includes about 370,000 households per year. We focus on heterogeneous labor market effects on the individual and on the household level and we study the distributional implications using net household income. In this respect we extend the previous literature which mainly studied employment effects on the individual level. Our results show sizable labor market effects which strongly differ by subgroups. We document larger employment effects for women who cannot rely on other income on the household level, e.g. women with a low income partner. The distributional analysis shows on average no significant effects on female or household income. This result holds as well for heterogeneous groups: Even for the most vulnerable groups, such as single women, women without higher education, or low partner income, we do not find significant reductions in income. One reason for this result is program substitution.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; pension reform ; labor supply ; early retirement ; distributional effects ; spillover effects ; household
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2011-03-29
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms on birth cohorts. Cohort effects estimated on the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles, in particular in East Germany and for people with little education. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-16
    Description: In this paper we exploit a cohort-specific pension reform to estimate the causal labour market effects of changes in the financial incentives to retire. In particular, we analyze the effects of the introduction of cohort-specific deductions for early retirement on female retirement, employment and unemployment. For the empirical analysis we use high-quality administrative data from the German pension insurance. We present evidence for sizable labour market effects. In addition to direct effects on women older than 60 we find important anticipation effects before reaching the pension eligibility age. Overall we document that the pension reform leads to a postponement of retirement, an increase in employment and a shifting in unemployment over age rather than a substitution into unemployment.
    Keywords: J14 ; J18 ; J22 ; J26 ; H21 ; ddc:330 ; retirement age ; pension reform ; labour supply ; actuarial deductions ; cohort-specific pension reform ; labour market effects
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Kiel und Hamburg: ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2017-01-27
    Description: In this paper we exploit a cohort specific pension reform to estimate the causal employment effect of changes in the financial incentives to retire. In particular we analyze the effect of the introduction of pension deductions for early retirement on female employment. For the empirical analysis we use high-quality administrative data from the German Federal Pension Insurance (VSKT) and find positive and significant effects of the reform on employment.
    Keywords: J18 ; J26 ; J14 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-02-21
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; Westdeutsche Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-22
    Description: Die Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt in den letzten Jahrzehnten und die jüngsten Rentenreformen werden sich erheblich auf die Rentenansprüche künftiger Rentnergenerationen auswirken. Dies zeigt eine aktuelle Studie des DIW Berlin im Auftrag der Deutschen Rentenversicherung. Während die Entwicklung in Westdeutschland auch künftig durch ein relativ stabiles durchschnittliches Rentenniveau der Männer und einen Anstieg der Rentenanwartschaften bei den Frauen gekennzeichnet ist, muss in Ostdeutschland sowohl bei den Frauen als auch bei den Männern mit einem deutlichen Rückgang der durchschnittlichen Rentenansprüche der jüngeren Geburtskohorten gegenüber dem bisherigen Rentenniveau gerechnet werden. Dies ist vor allem auf die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit nach der Wende und damit einhergehende unvollständige Erwerbsbiografien sowie auf geringe Löhne im Osten zurückzuführen. In geringerem Umfang wirken sich auch die Reformen zur Stabilisierung der Finanzierung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung aus. Schreibt man diese Entwicklungen fort, so sinkt der durchschnittliche Rentenzahlbetrag der jüngeren ostdeutschen Geburtskohorten unter das durchschnittliche Niveau der Grundsicherung im Alter. Sollte sich der Arbeitsmarkt indes günstiger als hier in einem Basisszenario angenommen entwickeln, wird dieser negative Trend zwar nicht aufgehoben, aber deutlich abgeschwächt.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Old-age pension ; Lifetime employment ; Cohort effects ; Altersvorsorge ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Rentenfinanzierung ; Westdeutsche Bundesländer ; Ostdeutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: We analyze the impact of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a rich dataset that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. A microsimulation model is developed which accounts for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment and earnings over the lifecycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. Cohort effects for individuals born between 1937 and 1971 vary greatly by region, gender and education and strongly affect lifecycle wage profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labor market participation of younger birth cohorts.
    Keywords: H55 ; J26 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Public pensions ; cohort effects ; microsimulation ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Rentenreform ; Kohortenanalyse ; Mikrosimulation ; Geschlecht ; Deutschland ; Neue Bundesländer ; Alte Bundesländer
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: Die Einkommenswirkungen und sozialpolitischen Folgen einer Erhöhung des gesetzlichen Renteneintrittsalters unterscheiden sich stark nach der individuellen Erwerbsbiographie und der Arbeitsmarktsituation älterer Arbeitnehmer. Mit Hilfe von Modellrechnungen zeigen wir, wie sich die Einkommenssituation von Rentnern mit unterschiedlichen Erwerbsbiographien durch die Einführung der gesetzlichen Rente mit 67 verändert. Ferner nutzen wir Daten des Scientific Use Files der Rentenzugangsstatistik 2006, um die Risikogruppen dieser Reform zu identifizieren. Die einfache Diagnose, dass die Rente mit 67 ein Rentensenkungsprogramm ist, kann nicht aufrechterhalten werden. Es zeigt sich vielmehr, dass das Armutsproblem, das der Rente mit 67 oft angelastet wird, in erster Linie ein Arbeitsmarktproblem darstellt.
    Description: The distributional effect of the increase in the compulsory retirement age depends markedly on the individual employment history and the labor market situation. Based on model simulations and administrative data (Scientific Use Files der Rentenzugangsstatistik 2006) we analyze the income effect increasing the compulsory retirement age from 65 to 67 in Germany and identify risk groups. We show that increasing the pensionable age is not the central reason for poverty of pensioners; this problem is mainly related to bad labor market situation of risk groups.
    Keywords: C63 ; D31 ; H55 ; ddc:330 ; Erhöhung des gesetzlichen Renteneintrittsalters ; Einkommenswirkungen ; Altersarmut
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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