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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: Nicht zuletzt aufgrund der kürzlich in der Schweiz abgelehnten Vollgeldinitiative wird das Thema Geldschöpfung privater Geschäftsbanken auch außerhalb der Fachwelt in einer breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert. Welche Chancen böte der Systemwechsel zu einem Vollgeldsystem? Und mit welchen Risiken wäre solch ein drastischer Schritt verbunden? Nach Ansicht von Dirk Niepelt, Studienzentrum Gerzensee und Universität Bern, könnte ein Vollgeldsystem – wenn überhaupt – nur sehr aufwändig um- und durchgesetzt werden. Die Zentralbank hätte in ihm mehr Verantwortung und Macht als heutzutage, wäre aber auch wesentlich stärkerem Druck ausgesetzt. Das operative Geschäft der Zentralbank würde erschwert, und eine stabilitätsorientierte Geldpolitik wäre gefährdet. Die positiven Wirkungen eines Vollgeldsystems ließen sich gezielter mit weniger einschneidenden Maßnahmen erreichen. Auch der Zugang des Publikums zu elektronischem Notenbankgeld ließe sich öffnen, ohne damit eine Abschaffung von Sichtguthaben bei Banken zu verbinden. Verbesserungen gegenüber dem Status quo und einem Vollgeldsystem dürfte ein Arrangement mit sich bringen, in dem das Publikum die Wahl zwischen traditionellen Sichtguthaben und elektronischem Notenbankgeld hat. Auf neue Regulierung könnte dann verzichtet werden. Ulrich Stolzenburg, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, sieht die Vorteile eines Vollgeldsystems in einer höheren Finanzstabilität und höheren Geldschöpfungsgewinnen für den Staat. Nachteilig wäre die Notwendigkeit zusätzlicher Regulierungen, voraussichtlich steigende Kosten für Finanzdienstleistungen und eine zu befürchtende Anpassungskrise des Bankensektors, die zunächst die Realwirtschaft belasten dürfte. Aber insgesamt sei ein Vollreservesystem im Vergleich zum gegenwärtigen Bankensystem eine spannende Alternative, die insbesondere auf lange Sicht eine höhere makroökonomische Stabilität verspreche, während die größten Risiken vor allem in der kürzeren Frist lauerten. Entscheide man sich letztlich für eine Reform der Geldordnung, seien schrittweise Annäherungen einem plötzlichen Systemwechsel vorzuziehen. Ein langsamer, planbarer Übergang würde allen Betroffenen eine allmähliche Anpassung an die neuen Bedingungen ermöglichen. Nach Ansicht von Alexander Rathke, Jan-Egbert Sturm und Klaus Abberger, ETH Zürich, lassen sich die Schwächen des gegenwärtigen Finanzsystems durch schrittweise Reformen und Adjustierung von bestehenden Instrumenten zuverlässiger verringern als durch einen Umbau des Systems mit ungewissem Ausgang. So sei beispielsweise eine Reform der Risikogewichtung bei der Berechnung des Eigenkapitalbedarfs dringend notwendig. Dieses Versäumnis nachzuholen, würde einen größeren Beitrag zur Finanzstabilität leisten als eine Vollgeldreform. Mathias Binswanger, Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Olten, stellt fest, dass heute die Zentralbanken kaum noch Kontrolle über die Geldschöpfungstätigkeit der Geschäftsbanken haben. Der Vorschlag des Vollgeldes solle deshalb dazu dienen, die verlorene Kontrolle der Zentralbank über die Geldschöpfung zurückzugewinnen durch die Aufhebung der Möglichkeit der Geldschöpfung durch private Geschäftsbanken. Allerdings sei dann die Flexibilität der Zentralbank, auf Fehleinschätzungen zu reagieren, sehr gering. Hans Gersbach, ETH Zürich, merkt an, dass ein Vollgeldsystem zum Beispiel mehr Informationen von der Zentralbank erfordere, da sie als ein zentraler Planer der Geldschöpfung auftreten müsse. Auch sei die Elastizität der Kreditvergabe an die Realwirtschaft durch die Geschäftsbanken bei Änderung von makroökonomischen Größen im aktuellen System höher als in einem Vollgeldsystem. Vorteile einer Vollgeldarchitektur könnten eine höhere Finanzstabilität, insbesondere durch die Vermeidung von Bank-Runs durch private Einleger, und höhere Einnahmen für den Staat aus der Geldschöpfung sein. Die Vollgeldinitiative und die Vielzahl möglicher monetärer Architekturen stellten nicht nur die Politik, sondern auch die Wissenschaft vor die Aufgabe, diese alternativen monetären Systeme genauer daraufhin zu prüfen, ob sie eine Alternative zum heutigen System darstellen könnten. Elisabeth Springler, Fachhochschule des BFI Wien, stellt dar, dass durch eine Umsetzung des Vollgeldkonzepts ohne Veränderung des wirtschaftlichen Denkens, die Situation seit der Finanzkrise nicht verbessert würde.
    Keywords: E58 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; Geldpolitik ; Geldmenge ; Geldschöpfung
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 2
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-20
    Description: We investigate whether elected members of the United Nations Security Council receive favorable treatment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), analyzing panel data on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the period of 1992 to 2008. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions attached to the loans that they receive from the IMF. We conclude that conditionality is softer for these countries because the major shareholders of the IMF desire influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; Voting ; Aid ; Conditionality ; Nationalstaat ; Regierung ; Mitgliedschaft ; Internationale Organisation ; Glaubwürdigkeit ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: Bailouts sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are famous for their conditionality: in return for continued installments of desperately needed loans, governments must comply with austere policy changes. Many have suggested, however, that politically important countries face rather weak stringency. Obstacles to testing this hypothesis include finding a measure of political importance that is not plagued by endogeneity and obtaining data on IMF conditionality. We propose to measure political importance using temporary membership on the United Nations Security Council and analyze a newly available dataset on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the 1992 to 2008 period. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions. This suggests that the major shareholders of the IMF trade softer conditionality in return for political influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; voting ; aid ; conditionality
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Bailouts sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are famous for their conditionality: in return for continued installments of desperately needed loans, governments must comply with austere policy changes. Many have suggested, however, that politically important countries face rather weak stringency. Obstacles to testing this hypothesis include finding a measure of political importance that is not plagued by endogeneity and obtaining data on IMF conditionality. We propose to measure political importance using temporary membership on the United Nations Security Council and analyze a newly available dataset on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the 1992 to 2008 period. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions. This suggests that the major shareholders of the IMF trade softer conditionality in return for political influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; Voting ; Aid ; Conditionality ; IWF-Kredit ; Internationale Wirtschaftsorganisation ; Mitgliedschaft ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: This paper empirically investigates the economic and political factors that affect a country's likelihood to sign an arrangement with the IMF and the determinants of the financial size of such a program. Arguably the world and the global financial architecture underwent structural changes after the ending of Cold War and so did the role of the IMF. Hence, we update and extend the work of Sturm et al. (2005) by employing a panel model for 165 countries that focuses on the post-Cold War era, i.e., 1990-2009. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that some economic and political variables are robustly related to these two dimensions of IMF program decisions. Furthermore, we show that it is important to distinguish between concessional and non-concessional IMF loans.
    Keywords: O19 ; F33 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; lending facilities ; extreme bounds analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President's introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant.
    Keywords: E52 ; E53 ; E3 ; ddc:330 ; ECB ; central bank ; communication ; Taylor rule ; Geldpolitik ; Zentralbank ; Staatliche Information ; Kommunikation ; Taylor-Regel ; Inflationserwartung ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: We investigate whether elected members of the United Nations Security Council receive favorable treatment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), analyzing panel data on the level of conditionality attached to (a maximum of) 314 IMF arrangements with 101 countries over the period of 1992 to 2008. We find a negative relationship: Security Council members receive about 30 percent fewer conditions attached to the loans that they receive from the IMF. We conclude that conditionality is softer for these countries because the major shareholders of the IMF desire influence over the Security Council.
    Keywords: O19 ; O11 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; UN Security Council ; Voting ; Aid ; Conditionality ; Nationalstaat ; Regierung ; Mitgliedschaft ; Internationale Organisation ; Glaubwürdigkeit ; Länderrisiko ; Welt
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: This paper estimates forward-looking Taylor rules for the euro area. Using the asymmetries in inflation and cyclical output developments across countries, we investigate the adequacy of the single monetary policy for each of the EuropeanMonetary Union (EMU) member countries. Notable differences emerge across the countries. Taking a euro area perspective, we also show that it depends upon the underlying country weighting scheme in the monetary decision process of the ECB whether or not there has been a synchronisation of business and inflation cycles among the EMU member countries over the years. Finally, we produce an estimate of the actual policy weights the ECB has implicitly attached to each of the member countries. Developments in small member countries have received more than proportional weights in actual monetary policy decisions of the ECB.
    Keywords: C22 ; E32 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; Taylor rule ; monetary policy ; ECB ; stress ; business cycle synchronisation ; Taylor-Regel ; Geldpolitik ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Konjunkturzusammenhang ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: Using panel data for 188 countries over the period 1970-2002 this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the IMF and the World Bank on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. Countries receiving adjustment programs and larger non-concessional loans from the World Bank vote more frequently in line with the average G7 country. The same is true for countries obtaining non-concessional IMF programs. Regarding voting coincidence with the US, World Bank (concessional and non-concessional) loans have a significant impact, while the IMF has not. These results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and method of estimation.
    Keywords: F33 ; ddc:330 ; IMF ; World Bank ; UN General Assembly ; Voting ; Aid ; Wahlverhalten ; Anpassungsprogramm des IWF ; Internationaler Kredit ; Panel
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Berlin: Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy stance suggests that developments in the monetary sector, while somewhat more important in the later half of the sample, only played a minor role most of the time. Our estimates of ECB interest rate decisions suggest that the ECB's words (monetary-sector based policy intensions) are not an important determinant of its actions.
    Keywords: E58 ; E52 ; E43 ; ddc:330 ; ECB ; communication ; monetary policy ; Geldpolitik ; Publikationsanalyse ; Staatliche Information ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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