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  • 1
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-20
    Description: This paper presents a theoretical gravity model of trade in which foreign aid is considered as a transfer instead of being part of the trade cost, as it has been previously done in the related literature. We argue that the usual specification leads to invalid out-of-sample predictions, biased coefficients and moreover it ignores heterogeneity. The proposed model is estimated for a sample of 188 countries over the period 1988-2013 using panel fixed effects and PPML techniques and the resulting trade elasticities with respect to aid are compared with those obtained from the traditional specification. The main results show that average effect of one additional US $ of aid is around 0.56$ of total imports according to our model, whereas with the alternative model an average effect of an implausible amount of 11$ of imports is obtained. In addition, a decomposed version of the model provides a new framework to disentangle the political effects of aid from the budget effects. While we consider the case of foreign aid, the modeling framework also applies to the study of other transfer, as for example remittances.
    Keywords: F14 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; international trade ; development ; foreign aid ; gravity
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-20
    Description: This paper investigates the link between exporting and importing activities and firm performance using a rich dataset on Egyptian and Moroccan firms. We test the export premium, self-selection and learning-by-exporting hypotheses using a number of firm characteristics. Our analysis also includes importing activities as a source of learning and considers their effects on productivity changes. A differences-in-differences matching estimator is used to address the endogeneity bias of target variables. The main results for Egyptian firms echo those reported for other countries using firm-level data, namely exporters are larger and more productive than non-exporters. In contrast, Moroccan exporters and non-exporters are strikingly similar. More specifically, no evidence is found of pre or post-entry differences in labour productivity for Moroccan firms.
    Keywords: F10 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; firms ; new-new trade theory ; productivity ; exporting ; panel data ; Egypt ; Morocco ; Exportindustrie ; Produktivität ; Unternehmen ; Schätzung ; Ägypten ; Marokko
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-20
    Description: Inflows of remittances to Pakistan are being increasingly viewed as a relatively attractive source of external finance, one that can help to foster development and manage economic shocks. Remittances have become a major source of revenue, surpassing the volume of FDI and official development assistance that the country receives. This study focuses primarily on the stability, cyclicality and stabilization impacts of migrant remittances to Pakistan. It is evident that foreign inflows exhibit different types of volatility; remittances are found to be a less volatile source of external finance than FDI and ODA that are counter-cyclical and stabilizing, thus serving to steady the recipient economy in times of economic downturns. ODA appears to be acyclical and stabilizing, whereas FDI emerges as pro-cyclical and destabilizing. Furthermore, remittances are insensitive to cyclical fluctuation in source countries. We also proceed with SVAR-based identification in order to examine the responses of financial flows to innovation in receiving and source economies. We confirm the counter-cyclical mechanism of remittances with Pakistani output. In particular, our results indicate that remittance flows to Pakistan are mainly due to the economic conditions in the receiving economy.
    Keywords: E32 ; F15 ; F21 ; F22 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; remittances ; FDI ; ODA, ; business cycle ; Pakistan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-03-06
    Description: In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of development aid in recipient countries. Specifically, we analyze the relationship between per-capita income and foreign aid for a maximum of 131 recipient countries over the 1960 to 2006 period. We employ annual data and 5-year averages and, contrary to the previous literature, carefully examine the time-series properties of the data. The previous literature overlooks the non-existence of a long-run relationship between aid and growth and the presence of autocorrelated error terms. To address those problems, we apply panel time-series techniques (panel unit-root tests, panel cointegration tests, and panel dynamic feasible generalized least-squares estimation [DFGLS]). Estimations with DFGLS show that aid has an insignificant or minute negative significant impact on per-capita income. This holds for countries with both above- and below-average aid-to-GDP ratios, for different levels of human development, different income levels and different regions of the world. We also find that aid has a significantly positive (although small) impact on investment, but a significant negative impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation).
    Keywords: F35 ; O11 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; Foreign aid ; real per-capita income ; panel time-series techniques ; dynamic feasible generalized linear least squares (DFGLS)
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2013-05-22
    Description: This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between foreign aid and exports in recipient countries and tests for the transmission channels between aid and exports/economic development in developing countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasizes the negative impact of aid on recipient countries' exports primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding the positive impact of aid linked to the income effect. The empirical findings, in contrast, indicate that the net impact of aid on recipient countries' exports is positive and that the average return for recipients' exports is about 1.50 US$ for every aid dollar spent. The paper also estimates the effect of different types of aid (bilateral aid [from one donor to one specific recipient, and bilateral aid from all the other donors to one specific recipient], as well as multilateral aid flowing to a specific recipient) and finds that at least two types of aid have a positive and significant effect on recipients' exports, thus ruling out a major crowding out effect. It is further found that aid is hardly export-enhancing in Africa.
    Keywords: F10 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; International Tade ; Foreign Aid ; Recipient Exports ; Real Exchange Rate
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Kiel und Hamburg: ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2013-05-22
    Description: This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between foreign aid and exports in recipient countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasizes the negative impact of aid on recipient countries' exports primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Our empirical findings -all based on endogeneity-proof techniques (such as Dynamic OLS or more refined techniques) - depend very strongly on whether bilateral trade relations and autocorrelation of the disturbances are controlled for. When not controlling for these phenomena, the impact of aid is quite substantial (especially in Asia, Latin America & Caribbean) but when sound estimation techniques are applied the net impact of aid on recipient countries' exports becomes insignificant in the full 130-country sample and the subsamples: Sub-Saharan Africa & MENA, Asia and Latin America & the Caribbean. However, this rather disappointing finding is in line with the small macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies.
    Keywords: F10 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; International trade ; foreign aid ; recipient exports ; bilateral trade relations
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Göttingen: Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: Aid is given for various purposes. Its impact on donors' exports usually depends on whether it is given for altruistic reasons (to overcome human tragedies and disasters) or in an understanding to promote development (to finance infrastructure or social projects). As to humanitarian aid the impact of aid on donors' exports will be most probably lower than in the latter case where related and unrelated imports for realizing development projects have been explicitly or implicitly agreed upon. Germany is known to be a country that ranks below average in tying its aid among the EU countries. Nonetheless there have been studies that found an extremely high positive impact of German bilateral aid on German exports. This finding will be re-examined in this study. An augmented gravity model is utilized to evaluate the impact of German bilateral aid on German exports. Stochastic and deterministic trends in the series are controlled to avoid spurious regression results.
    Keywords: F14 ; F35 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; bilateral aid ; donors' exports ; time series properties of panel data ; ECM and DOLS estimation in a panel context
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Göttingen: Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between bilateral and multilateral foreign aid and donor's exports. There are three primary findings from this approach. First, in the long term, the average return, in terms of an increase in the donor's level of goods exports, is approximately $ 2.15 US for every aid dollar spent on bilateral aid. Second, multilateral aid has a positive effect on export levels only in the short term, whereas in the long term, the effect is negative. Third, aid from other donors does not give rise to a displacement effect for a given donor-recipient trade relationship. This paper also makes comparisons among donors and finds that aid has a positive and significant effect on most donors' export levels.
    Keywords: F10 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; exports ; foreign aid ; donors ; panel data ; sample selection ; GLM
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Göttingen: Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: This study examines the effect of the Everything But Arms (EBA) trade preferences regime on exports from African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to the European Union (EU). With this aim, an augmented gravity model is estimated for exports from the 79 ACP countries to the EU-15 for the time period 1995 to 2005 using panel data techniques. The model estimates are used to quantify the effect of the EBA preferences on the ACP LDCs' export performance and to compare it with the impact of official development assistance. In addition to their separate effects, the combined impact of EBA and aid flows is estimated. The main results show a negative effect of the EBA regime on exports. Otherwise, the combined effect of the EBA and aid on exports is positive, supporting an EU development strategy that includes both sorts of assistance, aid and trade preferences.
    Keywords: O24 ; C23 ; F13 ; F35 ; ddc:330 ; development aid ; trade preferences ; Everything But Arms ; panel data
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-02-06
    Description: Results-based aid (RBA) models link funds to outcomes, rather than paying for inputs. Despite their theoretical appeal and recent adoption by donors and multilateral development banks, there is limited empirical evidence supporting this form of aid for national governments. We estimate the effects of a RBA model using a natural experiment in El Salvador, where the same community health intervention was implemented in 98 municipalities using one of three financing models. The Salud Mesoamerica Initiative funded fourteen municipalities with a RBA model that partially conditions funds on the attainment of externally measured maternal and child health targets. Fifty-four municipalities funded inputs using conventional aid and thirty had national funds. Using a difference-in-difference approach and national health systems data we find that preventive health services increased by 19.8% in conventional aid municipalities and by 42% in RBA municipalities compared to national funds, suggesting that the results-based conditionality roughly doubled aid effectiveness. Effects are driven by increases in maternal and child preventive services incentivized by the RBA model. Rather than diverting resources from other populations, we find that the expansion of health services under RBA also benefited men and the elderly, not explicitly incentivized by the results model. While data on final health outcomes are not available, our results on proxy measures point to potential improvements in population health. The effects appear to have been driven by a more rapid expansion of health infrastructure and qualified personnel by motivated national authorities.
    Keywords: F35 ; J13 ; I18 ; H51 ; ddc:330 ; Foreign Aid ; Results Based Aid ; Performance Incentives ; Health Services ; El Salvador
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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