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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-09-21
    Description: Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regarding potential output. Simulations with historical output gap estimates indicate that such misperceptions may induce persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation control is improved substantially.
    Keywords: E32 ; E41 ; E43 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; monetary policy under uncertainty ; money ; output gap uncertainty ; quantity theory and Taylor rules ; Geldpolitik ; Produktionspotenzial ; Zinspolitik ; Quantitätstheorie ; Taylor-Regel ; Theorie
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as well as an idiosyncratic regional component. Our findings indicate a substantial common area wide component, that can be related to the common monetary policy in the euro area and to external developments, in particular exchange rate movements and changes in oil prices. The effects of the area wide factors differ across regions, however. We relate these differences to structural economic characteristics of the various regions. We also find a substantial national component. Our findings do not differ substantially before and after the formal introduction of the euro in 1999, suggesting that convergence has largely taken place before the mid 90s. Analysing US regional inflation developments yields similar results regarding the relevance of common US factors. Finally, we find that disaggregate regional inflation information, as summarised by the area wide factors, is important in explaining aggregate euro area and US inflation rates, even after conditioning on macroeconomic variables. Therefore, monitoring regional inflation rates within euro area countries can enhance the monetary policy maker’s understanding of aggregate area wide inflation dynamics.
    Keywords: E31 ; E52 ; E58 ; C33 ; ddc:330 ; common factor models ; euro area and US ; regional inflation dynamics ; Inflation ; Räumliche Verteilung ; Raumstruktur ; Vergleich ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regarding potential output. Simulations with historical output gap estimates indicate that such misperceptions may induce persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest rate prescriptions derived from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation control is improved substantially.
    Keywords: E32 ; E41 ; E43 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; monetary policy under uncertainty ; Money ; output gap uncertainty ; quantity theory ; Taylor rules ; Geldpolitik ; Produktionspotenzial ; Zinspolitik ; Quantitätstheorie ; Taylor-Regel ; Theorie
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-22
    Description: Using a set of regional inflation rates we examine the dynamics of inflation dispersion within the U.S.A., Japan and across U.S. and Canadian regions. We find that inflation rate dispersion is significant throughout the sample period in all three samples. Based on methods applied in the empirical growth literature, we provide evidence in favor of significant mean reversion (?- convergence) in inflation rates in all considered samples. The evidence on ?-convergence is mixed, however. Observed declines in dispersion are usually associated with decreasing overall inflation levels which indicates a positive relationship between mean inflation and overall inflation rate dispersion. Our findings for the within-distribution dynamics of regional inflation rates show that dynamics are largest for Japanese prefectures, followed by U.S. metropolitan areas. For the combined U.S.-Canadian sample, we find a pattern of withindistribution dynamics that is comparable to that found for regions within the European Monetary Union (EMU). In line with findings in the so-called 'border literature' these results suggest that frictions across European markets are at least as large as they are, e.g., across North American markets.
    Keywords: E31 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; Inflation Convergence ; Deflation ; ECB Monetary Policy ; EMU, Regional Diversity
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-22
    Description: Using a unique data set of regional inflation rates we are examining the extent and dynamics of inflation dispersion in major EMU countries before and after the introduction of the euro. For both periods, we find strong evidence in favor of mean reversion (?-convergence) in inflation rates. However, half-lives to convergence are considerable and seem to have increased after 1999. The results indicate that the convergence process is nonlinear in the sense that its speed becomes smaller the further convergence has proceeded. An examination of the dynamics of overall inflation dispersion (?-convergence) shows that there has been a decline in dispersion in the first half of the 1990s. For the second half of the 1990s, no further decline can be observed. At the end of the sample period, dispersion has even increased. The existence of large persistence in European inflation rates is confirmed when distribution dynamics methodology is applied. At the end of the paper we present evidence for the sustainability of the ECB's inflation target of an EMU-wide average inflation rate of less than but close to 2%.
    Keywords: E31 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; Inflation Convergence ; Deflation ; ECB Monetary Policy ; EMU, Regional Diversity
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-22
    Description: The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. The case against including money in the central bank's interest rate rule is based on a standard model of the monetary transmission process that underlies many contributions to research on monetary policy in the last two decades. In this paper, we develop a justification for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect knowledge regarding unobservables such as potential output and equilibrium interest rates. We formulate a novel characterization of ECB-style monetary cross-checking and show that it can generate substantial stabilization benefits in the event of persistent policy misperceptions regarding potential output.
    Keywords: E32 ; E41 ; E43 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; Monetary Policy ; Money ; Quantity Theory ; Phillips Curve ; European Central Bank ; Policy Under Uncertainty ; Geldpolitik ; Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit ; Quantitätstheorie ; Phillips-Kurve ; Zentralbank ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-22
    Description: The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. In this paper, we explore possible justifications. The case against including money in the central bank's interest rate rule is based on a standard model of the monetary transmission process that underlies many contributions to research on monetary policy in the last two decades. Of course, if one allows for a direct effect of money on output or inflation as in the empirical 'two-pillar' Phillips curves estimated in some recent contributions, it would be optimal to include a measure of (long-run) money growth in the rule. In this paper, we develop a justification for including money in the interest rate rule by allowing for imperfect knowledge regarding unobservables such as potential output and equilibrium interest rates. We formulate a novel characterization of ECB-style monetary cross-checking and show that it can generate substantial stabilization benefits in the event of persistent policy misperceptions regarding potential output. Such misperceptions cause a bias in policy setting. We find that cross-checking and changing interest rates in response to sustained deviations of long-run money growth helps the central bank to overcome this bias. Our argument in favor of ECB-style cross-checking does not require direct effects of money on output or inflation.
    Keywords: E32 ; E41 ; E43 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; Monetary Policy ; Quantity Theory ; Phillips Curve ; European Central Bank ; Policy Under Uncertainty ; Geldpolitik ; Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit ; Quantitätstheorie ; Phillips-Kurve ; Zentralbank ; EU-Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-22
    Description: We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as well as an idiosyncratic regional component. Our findings indicate a substantial common area wide component, that can be related to the common monetary policy in the euro area and to external developments, in particular exchange rate movements and changes in oil prices. The effects of the area wide factors differ across regions, however. We relate these differences to structural economic characteristics of the various regions. We also find a substantial national component. Our findings do not differ substantially before and after the formal introduction of the euro in 1999, suggesting that convergence has largely taken place before the mid 90s. Analysing US regional inflation developments yields similar results regarding the relevance of common US factors. Finally, we find that disaggregate regional inflation information, as summarised by the area wide factors, is important in explaining aggregate euro area and US inflation rates, even after conditioning on macroeconomic variables. Therefore, monitoring regional inflation rates within euro area countries can enhance the monetary policy maker's understanding of aggregate area wide inflation dynamics.
    Keywords: E31 ; E52 ; E58 ; C33 ; ddc:330 ; Regional Inflation Dynamics ; Euro Area and US ; Common Factor Model ; Inflation ; Regionale Disparität ; Regionalstruktur ; Vergleich ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2016-01-29
    Description: Ever since the European Central Bank presented its monetary policy strategy on the basis of two pillars "economic" and "monetary" analysis with the latter being used as a cross-check of the first it has been criticized for giving too much importance to monetary aggregates. Opponents argue these aggregates are largely unrelated to monetary policy and provide little or no relevant information. Supporters have instead referred to the success of the Bundesbank in controlling inflation by using monetary targets during the 1970s and early 1980s. Furthermore, loose monetary conditions in the 2000s are viewed by many as a driver of excessive growth of credit and asset prices that set the stage for the global financial crisis. We use a formal characterization of monetary cross-checking and go on to study its role in policy practice empirically. Firstly, we derive historical measures of monetary conditions using this definition of cross-checking for Germany from the 1970s to 1998 and for the euro area since then. We investigate when monetary cross-checking would have called for significant adjustments in interest rate policy. Secondly, we test empirically whether interest rate policy responded to significant deviations of money. Such cross-checks induce a nonlinear shift in rates based on a threshold in terms of filtered money growth. Our estimates of threshold autoregressive models indicate that the behavior of the Bundesbank can well be described by a standard Taylor interest-rate rule augmented by a nonlinear component which induces an interest-rate adjustment when a filtered money growth measure exceeds an empirically specified threshold. Concerning the policy making of the ECB, we find supportive evidence for Trichet s(2008) claim of an interest-rate adjustment induced by a signal from monetary cross-checking at the end of 2004. However, our empirical results would have suggested an even larger (and earlier) response.
    Keywords: C10 ; E41 ; E58 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions.
    Keywords: E32 ; E41 ; E43 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; European Central Bank ; monetary policy ; Money ; new-Keynesian model ; policy under uncertainty ; quantity theory ; Geldpolitik ; Zentralbank ; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit ; Zins ; Neoklassische Synthese
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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