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  • E31  (21)
  • E52  (16)
  • Astronomy  (15)
  • J24  (15)
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  • 1
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: We estimate a 'Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve' for Argentina between 1993 and 2007. We extend the model to a small open economy, considering separately the influence of nominal devaluation and foreign inflation on domestic prices. For the whole sample, we find that forward and backward-looking components are relevant although the backward-looking term weights more in determining inflation dynamics. We test for parameter stability and find a break-point in 2002 along with the regime change. In line with recent literature on trend inflation, when trend inflation increases, the influence of the output gap weakens and the curve becomes more forward-looking.
    Keywords: C5 ; E31 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation dynamics ; Phillips Curve ; small open economy ; New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: In this paper we analyze the impact of immigrants on the type and quantity of native jobs. We use data on fifteen Western European countries during the 1996-2010 period. We find that immigrants, by taking manual-routine type of occupations pushed natives towards more complex (abstract and communication) jobs. Such positive reallocation occurred while the total number of jobs held by natives was unaffected. This job upgrade was associated in the short run to a 0.6% increase in native wages for a doubling of the immigrants' share. These results are robust to the use of two alternative IV strategies based on past settlement of immigrants across European countries measured alternatively with Census or Labor Force data. The job upgrade slowed, but did not come to a halt, during the Great Recession. We also document the labor market flows behind it: the complexity of jobs offered to new native hires was higher relative to the complexity of lost jobs. Finally, we find evidence that such reallocation was significantly larger in countries with more flexible labor laws and that his tendency was particularly strong for less educated workers.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; Immigration ; Jobs ; Task specialization ; Employment Protection Laws ; Europe
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and Inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run adding extra noise to that usually present at high frequencies. High inflation also leads to ideosyncratic movements in prices that do not cancel out, adding persistence to the process. When inflation is low, no long-run interaction between variables is expected. This is the case of the US, even though supply shocks are comparable to those of the seventies when trend inflation was high. Surprisingly, the findings for Argentina do not support the a-priori as both variables show significant long term comovement. Studying disaggregate price responses to common shocks helps to understand sectoral pattens behind these dynamics. Our results suggest that long run variablity in inflation can be induced, not only by a high trend inflation, but also by policy stabilization efforts based on relative price adjustments.
    Keywords: C22 ; C43 ; E31 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; inflation ; frequency domain analysis ; regime ; common shocks ; monetary policy ; relative prices ; Inflation ; Relativer Preis ; Theorie ; Argentinien ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation forecast ; multivariate models ; pooling ; univariate models ; Inflation ; Prognose ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we evaluate the predictive capacity of certain causal models linked to different inflation theories, such as the Phillips Curve and a monetary VAR. We also analyze the predictive power of models that use factors that combine the overall variability of a large number of business cycle time series as predictors. We compare their relative performance using a set of parametric and non-parametric tests proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995). Although the univariate model performs best, as the forecast horizon lengthens, multivariate models performance improves. In particular, a monetary VAR performs better than the univariate ARMA model in the case of a one-year horizon. Nevertheless, when tests are calculated to evaluate the statistical significance of differences in the predictive capacity of models, taking a univariate ARMA model as a benchmark, differences are not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast combinations outperform the best individual forecast over a one-year horizon. Taking into account that a one year-horizon is relevant for economic policy decisions, the possibility of combining both univariate and multivariate models for forecasting purpose is interesting, because it it can also be helpful to answer specific economic policy questions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E31 ; E37 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural experiment for an empirical test of the effectiveness of unconventional fiscal policy. To comply with European Union law, the German government announced in November 2005 an unexpected 3-percentage-point increase in value-added tax (VAT), effective in 2007. The shock increased households' inflation expectations during 2006 and actual inflation in 2007. Germans' willingness to purchase durables increased by 34% after the shock, compared to before and to matched households in other European countries not exposed to the VAT shock. Income, wealth effects, or intratemporal substitution cannot explain these results.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Zero-Lower Bound ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Durable Consumption ; Survey Data ; Household Consumption
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: This paper charts the complex dynamics of the movement of technical talent in the world economy and assesses broadly the impact of such mobility on both sending and receiving countries. Based on secondary data and primary information from the Indian and Japanese IT industry, the study presents a global view of the movement of talent and its development and policy implications. By synthesizing disparate data and the multifaceted processes and outcomes of international mobility, the paper examines some of the distributional issues of gains and losses in both sending and receiving countries.
    Keywords: F22 ; I28 ; J24 ; L86 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; education ; government policy ; human capital ; skills ; information services ; computer software ; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität ; Humankapital ; Softwareindustrie ; Indien ; Japan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-11-30
    Description: While there is a growing debate among researchers and practitioners on the possible role of central banks and financial regulators in supporting a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy, the information on which macroprudential instruments could be used for reaching the "green structural change" is still quite limited. Moreover, the achievement of climate goals is still affected by the so-called "green finance gap". The paper addresses these issues by proposing a critical review of existing and novel prudential approaches to incentivizing the decarbonization of banks' balance sheets and align finance with sustainable growth and development objectives. The analysis carried out in the paper allows understanding under which conditions macroprudential policy could tackle climate change and promote green lending, while containing climate-related financial risks.
    Description: Während unter Forschern und Praktikern eine zunehmende Debatte über die mögliche Rolle von Zentralbanken und Finanzaufsichtsbehörden bei der Unterstützung eines reibungslosen Übergangs zu einer kohlenstoffarmen Wirtschaft stattfindet, sind die Informationen darüber, welche makroprudentiellen Instrumente zur Erreichung des "grünen Strukturwandels" eingesetzt werden könnten, noch recht begrenzt. Darüber hinaus wird die Erreichung der Klimaziele noch durch die so genannte "green finance gap" beeinflusst. Das Papier befasst sich mit diesen Fragen, indem es eine kritische Überprüfung bestehender und neuartiger aufsichtsrechtlicher Ansätze vorschlägt, um Anreize für die Dekarbonisierung der Bankbilanzen zu schaffen und die Finanzierung an den Zielen für nachhaltiges Wachstum und Entwicklung auszurichten. Die in dem Papier durchgeführte Analyse ermöglicht es zu verstehen, unter welchen Bedingungen die makroprudentäre Politik den Klimawandel bekämpfen und die umweltfreundliche Kreditvergabe fördern könnte, während sie gleichzeitig klimabedingte finanzielle Risiken begrenzt.
    Keywords: E50 ; E52 ; G28 ; Q50 ; Q58 ; ddc:330 ; climate change ; climate finance gap ; banking regulation ; macroprudential policy ; central banking ; climate-finance risk
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: The objective here is to understand how the mobility of technical talent might be changing the structural relationship between rich and poor countries. This paper examines the under-researched relationship between India and Japan in the context of globalization, migration, and developmental impact with demographic, immigration, and innovation policy issues as key themes. By focusing on the export of technical talent, I argue that India could tap its overseas ‘brain bank’ by diversifying IT export markets, create epistemic networks, meet impending skill shortages in Japan, and induce long-term innovative capability. Immigration reforms and freer movement of talent will be critical.
    Keywords: F22 ; J24 ; O19 ; O57 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; technical talent ; IT industry ; innovation and development ; ‘brain bank’ ; India ; Japan ; Brain Drain ; Informationstechnik ; Globalisierung ; Indien ; Japan
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-06-08
    Description: We report on the discovery and follow-up timing observations of a 63-ms radio pulsar, PSR J1105-6107. We show that the pulsar is young, having a characteristic age of only 63kyr. We consider its possible association with the nearby remnant G290.1-0.8 (MSH 11-61A) but uncertainties in the distances and ages preclude a firm conclusion.
    Keywords: Astronomy
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