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  • E52  (15)
  • J24  (15)
  • C14  (13)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-04-06
    Description: Finding a non-academic job in line with both doctoral graduates’ degree and acquired know-how can be difficult because of insufficient demand for R&D skills in public administration and private enterprise and/or because of the lack of matching between the existing demand and the Ph.D. holders’ specialization. The aim of this paper is to test whether migrating from some regions may improve job-education matching in Italy. The econometric strategy takes into account Ph.D. holders’ selfselection into non-academic employment as well as the endogeneity of the migration choice. Results demonstrate that migration seems to facilitate the possibility of finding better job opportunities. More specifically, only migration within the regions of the centre and north of Italy seems to improve jobeducation matching.
    Keywords: J61 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; Ph.D. holders ; job-education mismatch ; migration
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Ispra: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-28
    Description: Although, the need for an efficient Roma integration policy is growing in Europe, surprisingly little robust scientific evidence regarding potential policy costs and expected benefits of alternative policy options has supported the policy design and implementation so far. The present study attempts to narrow this evidence gap and aims to shed light on long-run economic, budgetary and fiscal effects of selected education and employment policies for the inclusion of the marginalised Roma in the EU. We employ a general equilibrium approach that allows us to assess not only the direct impact of alternative Roma integration policies but also to capture all induced feedback effects. Our simulation results suggest that, although Roma integration policies would be costly for the public budget, in the medium- to long-run, economic, budgetary and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh short- to medium-run Roma integration costs. Depending on the integration policy scenario and the analysed country, the full repayment of the integration policy investment (positive net present value) may be achieved after 7 to 9 years. In terms of the GDP, employment and earnings, the universal basic income scenario may have the highest potential, particularly in the medium- to long-run.
    Keywords: I32 ; J6 ; J11 ; J24 ; O17 ; O43 ; ddc:330 ; Roma ; social marginalisation ; education ; labour market ; integration policy ; universal basic income
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-07-23
    Description: We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates, and equity prices in the U.S. Their simultaneous changes enable us to distinguish between a systematic and "exogenous" response to monetary-policy news. And, those tail risks.co-movements are accounted for in quantifying the magnitude and persistence of their responses to key shocks. We find that: (i) in the medium-term, all four tail risks respond significantly and contemporaneously to domestic and foreign monetary-policy announcements, except for the equity tail risk to foreign policy; (ii) all four tail risks rarely change in response to other U.S. macro- economic news; (iii) the directional pattern of their simultaneous reactions to policy announcements is often consistent with the systematic response to new information about the economic outlook rather than with the response to an exogenous shock; (iv) the few notable instances of the latter response are always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes and extreme policy- rate outcomes are tightly linked, and that both determine tail outcomes for longer-term interest rates but not for stock prices.
    Keywords: C32 ; E52 ; E58 ; G12 ; G14 ; ddc:330 ; Downside Risk ; Derivatives ; Monetary Policy ; Ankündigungseffekt ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Geldpolitik ; Inflation ; Zins ; Börsenkurs ; Schätzung ; USA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by non-expert consumers, forward guidance. Both policies aim to stimulate consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead, forward guidance requires that agents understand the inflationary effects of future low interest rates to increase their inflation expectations and spending today. We find households’ inflation expectations and readiness to spend react substantially to unconventional fiscal policy announcements. The reaction is homogeneous across households with different levels of sophistication. Instead, households do not react after forward guidance announcements. These results support recent work stressing the importance of limited cognition for the effectiveness of policies.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; expectations ; natural experiments ; consumption ; fiscal policy ; monetary policy ; macroeconomics with micro data
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-01-18
    Description: We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of economic expectations, and the choices of a representative male population. Men above the median IQ (high-IQ men) display 50% lower forecast errors for inflation than other men. The inflation expectations and perceptions of high-IQ men, but not others, are positively correlated over time. High-IQ men are also less likely to round and to forecast implausible values. In terms of choice, only high-IQ men increase their propensity to consume when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. High-IQ men are also forward-looking - they are more likely to save for retirement conditional on saving. Education levels, income, socio-economic status, and employment status, although important, do not explain the variation in expectations and choice by IQ. Our results have implications for heterogeneous-beliefs models of household consumption, saving, and investment.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Seville: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-28
    Description: The present paper estimates and decomposes the employment effect of innovation by R&D intensity levels. Our microeconometric analysis is based on a large international panel data set from the EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard. Employing flexible semi-parametric methods - the generalised propensity score - allows us to recover the full functional relationship between R&D investment and firm employment, and to address important econometric issues, which is not possible in the standard estimation approach used in the previous literature. Our results suggest that modest innovators do not create and may even destruct jobs by raising their R&D expenditures. Most of the jobs in the economy are created by innovation followers: increasing innovation by 1% may increase employment up to 0.7%. The job creation effect of innovation reaches its peak when R&D intensity is around 100% of the total capital expenditure, after which the positive employment effect declines and becomes statistically insignificant. Innovation leaders do not create jobs by further increasing their R&D expenditures, which are already very high.
    Keywords: C14 ; C21 ; F23 ; J20 ; J23 ; O30 ; O32 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; Innovation ; R&D investment ; causal inference ; semi-parametric ; employment ; job creation ; GPS
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Ispra: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-28
    Description: We provide a novel evidence about the innovation-employment nexus by decomposing it by R&D intensity in a continuous setup and relaxing the linearity assumption. Using a large international firm-level panel data set for OECD countries and employing a flexible semi-parametric method – the generalised propensity score – allows us to recover the full functional relationship between the R&D-driven innovation and firm employment as well as address important econometric issues, which is not possible in the standard estimation approach used in the previous literature. Our results confirm that the relationship between innovation and employment entails important non-linearities responsible for significant differences in employment response to innovation at different R&D intensity levels.
    Keywords: C14 ; C21 ; F23 ; J20 ; J23 ; O30 ; O32 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; R&D investment ; employment ; propensity score ; firm-level data
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-08-28
    Description: The issues of the forced migration and integration of refugees in the EU society and labour markets are high on the policy agenda. Apart from humanitarian aspects, a sustainable integration of accepted refugees is important also for social, economic, budgetary and other reasons. Although, the potential consequences of the refugee acceptance are being often discussed, little scientific evidence has been provided for the policy debate so far in the context of the current refugee crisis. The present study attempts to shed light on the long-run social, economic and budgetary effects of the rapidly increasing forced immigration into the EU by performing a scenario analysis of alternative refugee integration scenarios. Our simulation results suggest that, although the refugee integration (e.g. by the providing language and professional training) is costly for the public budget, in the medium- to long-run, the social, economic and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh the short-run refugee integration costs. Depending on the integration policy scenario and policy financing method, the annual long-run GDP effect would be 0.2% to 1.4% above the baseline growth, and the full repayment of the integration policy investment (positive net present value) would be achieved after 9 to 19 years.
    Keywords: F22 ; J6 ; J11 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; Migration ; refugees ; social inclusion ; labour market ; integration policy ; modelling ; scenario analysis ; macroeconomic model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Leuven: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
    Publication Date: 2019-02-04
    Description: This is the first paper that estimates the global land use change impact of growth of the bioenergy sector. Applying time-series analytical mechanisms to fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodity prices and production, we estimate the long-rung relationship between energy prices, bioenergy production and the global land use change. Our results suggest that rising energy prices and bioenergy production significantly contribute to the global land use change both through the direct and indirect land use change impact. Globally, the total agricultural area yearly increases by 35578.1 thousand ha due to increasing oil price, and by 12125.1 thousand ha due to increasing biofuel production, which corresponds to 0.73% and 0.25% of the total world-wide agricultural area, respectively. Soya land use change and wheat land use change have the highest elasticities both with respect to oil price and biofuel production. In contrast, non-biomass crops (grassland and rice) have negative land use change elasticities. Region-specific results suggest that South America faces the largest yearly total land use change associated with oil price increase (+10600.7 thousand ha), whereas Asia (+8918.6 thousand ha), South America (+4024.9 thousand ha) and North America (+1311.5 thousand ha) have the largest yearly total land use change associated with increase in biofuel production.
    Keywords: C14 ; C22 ; C51 ; D58 ; Q11 ; Q13 ; Q42 ; ddc:330 ; Land use change ; bioenergy ; commodity prices ; biofuel support policies
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-11-30
    Description: While there is a growing debate among researchers and practitioners on the possible role of central banks and financial regulators in supporting a smooth transition to a low-carbon economy, the information on which macroprudential instruments could be used for reaching the "green structural change" is still quite limited. Moreover, the achievement of climate goals is still affected by the so-called "green finance gap". The paper addresses these issues by proposing a critical review of existing and novel prudential approaches to incentivizing the decarbonization of banks' balance sheets and align finance with sustainable growth and development objectives. The analysis carried out in the paper allows understanding under which conditions macroprudential policy could tackle climate change and promote green lending, while containing climate-related financial risks.
    Description: Während unter Forschern und Praktikern eine zunehmende Debatte über die mögliche Rolle von Zentralbanken und Finanzaufsichtsbehörden bei der Unterstützung eines reibungslosen Übergangs zu einer kohlenstoffarmen Wirtschaft stattfindet, sind die Informationen darüber, welche makroprudentiellen Instrumente zur Erreichung des "grünen Strukturwandels" eingesetzt werden könnten, noch recht begrenzt. Darüber hinaus wird die Erreichung der Klimaziele noch durch die so genannte "green finance gap" beeinflusst. Das Papier befasst sich mit diesen Fragen, indem es eine kritische Überprüfung bestehender und neuartiger aufsichtsrechtlicher Ansätze vorschlägt, um Anreize für die Dekarbonisierung der Bankbilanzen zu schaffen und die Finanzierung an den Zielen für nachhaltiges Wachstum und Entwicklung auszurichten. Die in dem Papier durchgeführte Analyse ermöglicht es zu verstehen, unter welchen Bedingungen die makroprudentäre Politik den Klimawandel bekämpfen und die umweltfreundliche Kreditvergabe fördern könnte, während sie gleichzeitig klimabedingte finanzielle Risiken begrenzt.
    Keywords: E50 ; E52 ; G28 ; Q50 ; Q58 ; ddc:330 ; climate change ; climate finance gap ; banking regulation ; macroprudential policy ; central banking ; climate-finance risk
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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