ALBERT

Description: Atmospheric flux inversions use observations of atmospheric CO2 to provide anthropogenic and biogenic CO2 flux estimates at a range of spatio-temporal scales. Inversions require prior flux, a forward model and observation errors to estimate posterior fluxes and uncertainties. Here, we investigate the forward transport error and the associated biogenic feedback in an Earth system model (ESM) context. These errors can occur from uncertainty in the initial meteorology, the analysis fields used, or the advection schemes and physical parameterisation of the model. We also explore the spatio-temporal variability and flow-dependent error covariances. We then compare the error with the atmospheric response to uncertainty in the prior anthropogenic emissions. Although transport errors are variable, average total-column CO2 (XCO2) transport errors over anthropogenic emission hotspots (0.1–0.8 ppm) are comparable to, and often exceed, prior monthly anthropogenic flux uncertainties projected onto the same space (0.1–1.4 ppm). Average near-surface transport errors at three sites (Paris, Caltech and Tsukuba) range from 1.7 to 7.2 ppm. The global average XCO2 transport error standard deviation plateaus at ∼0.1 ppm after 2–3 d, after which atmospheric mixing significantly dampens the concentration gradients. Error correlations are found to be highly flow dependent, with XCO2 spatio-temporal correlation length scales ranging from 0 to 700 km and 0 to 260 min. Globally, the average model error caused by the biogenic response to atmospheric meteorological uncertainties is small (

Description: Holocene marine transgressions are often put forward to explain observed groundwater salinities that extend far inland in deltas. This hypothesis was also proposed in the literature to explain the large land-inward extent of saline groundwater in the Nile Delta. The groundwater models previously built for the area used very large dispersivities to reconstruct this saline and brackish groundwater zone. However, this approach cannot explain the observed freshening of this zone. Here, we investigated the physical plausibility of the Holocene-transgression hypothesis to explain observed salinities by conducting a palaeohydrogeological reconstruction of groundwater salinity for the last 32 ka with a complex 3-D variable-density groundwater flow model, using a state-of-the-art version of the SEAWAT computer code that allows for parallel computation. Several scenarios with different lithologies and hypersaline groundwater provenances were simulated, of which five were selected that showed the best match with the observations. Amongst these selections, total freshwater volumes varied strongly, ranging from 1526 to 2659 km3, mainly due to uncertainties in the lithology offshore and at larger depths. This range is smaller (1511–1989 km3) when we only consider the volumes of onshore fresh groundwater within 300 m depth. In all five selected scenarios the total volume of hypersaline groundwater exceeded that of seawater. We also show that during the last 32 ka, total freshwater volumes significantly declined, with a factor ranging from 2 to 5, due to the rising sea level. Furthermore, the time period required to reach a steady state under current boundary conditions exceeded 5.5 ka for all scenarios. Finally, under highly permeable conditions the marine transgression simulated with the palaeohydrogeological reconstruction led to a steeper fresh–salt interface compared to its steady-state equivalent, while low-permeable clay layers allowed for the preservation of fresh groundwater volumes. This shows that long-term transient simulations are needed when estimating present-day fresh–salt groundwater distributions in large deltas. The insights of this study are also applicable to other major deltaic areas, since many also experienced a Holocene marine transgression.

Description: Climate change mitigation efforts require information on the current greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations and their sources and sinks. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its variability in the atmosphere is modulated by the synergy between weather and CO2 surface fluxes, often referred to as CO2 weather. It is interpreted with the help of global or regional numerical transport models, with horizontal resolutions ranging from a few hundreds of kilometres to a few kilometres. Changes in the model horizontal resolution affect not only atmospheric transport but also the representation of topography and surface CO2 fluxes. This paper assesses the impact of horizontal resolution on the simulated atmospheric CO2 variability with a numerical weather prediction model. The simulations are performed using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) CO2 forecasting system at different resolutions from 9 to 80 km and are evaluated using in situ atmospheric surface measurements and atmospheric column-mean observations of CO2, as well as radiosonde and SYNOP observations of the winds. The results indicate that both diurnal and day-to-day variability of atmospheric CO2 are generally better represented at high resolution, as shown by a reduction in the errors in simulated wind and CO2. Mountain stations display the largest improvements at high resolution as they directly benefit from the more realistic orography. In addition, the CO2 spatial gradients are generally improved with increasing resolution for both stations near the surface and those observing the total column, as the overall inter-station error is also reduced in magnitude. However, close to emission hotspots, the high resolution can also lead to a deterioration of the simulation skill, highlighting uncertainties in the high-resolution fluxes that are more diffuse at lower resolutions. We conclude that increasing horizontal resolution matters for modelling CO2 weather because it has the potential to bring together improvements in the surface representation of both winds and CO2 fluxes, as well as an expected reduction in numerical errors of transport. Modelling applications like atmospheric inversion systems to estimate surface fluxes will only be able to benefit fully from upgrades in horizontal resolution if the topography, winds and prior flux distribution are also upgraded accordingly. It is clear from the results that an additional increase in resolution might reduce errors even further. However, the horizontal resolution sensitivity tests indicate that the change in the CO2 and wind modelling error with resolution is not linear, making it difficult to quantify the improvement beyond the tested resolutions. Finally, we show that the high-resolution simulations are useful for the assessment of the small-scale variability of CO2 which cannot be represented in coarser-resolution models. These representativeness errors need to be considered when assimilating in situ data and high-resolution satellite data such as Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Chinese Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite Mission (TanSat) and future missions such as the Geostationary Carbon Observatory (GeoCarb) and the Sentinel satellite constellation for CO2. For these reasons, the high-resolution CO2 simulations provided by the CAMS in real time can be useful to estimate such small-scale variability in real time, as well as providing boundary conditions for regional modelling studies and supporting field experiments.

Description: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis is the latest global reanalysis dataset of atmospheric composition produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), consisting of three-dimensional time-consistent atmospheric composition fields, including aerosols and chemical species. The dataset currently covers the period 2003–2016 and will be extended in the future by adding 1 year each year. A reanalysis for greenhouse gases is being produced separately. The CAMS reanalysis builds on the experience gained during the production of the earlier Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and CAMS interim reanalysis. Satellite retrievals of total column CO; tropospheric column NO2; aerosol optical depth (AOD); and total column, partial column and profile ozone retrievals were assimilated for the CAMS reanalysis with ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The new reanalysis has an increased horizontal resolution of about 80 km and provides more chemical species at a better temporal resolution (3-hourly analysis fields, 3-hourly forecast fields and hourly surface forecast fields) than the previously produced CAMS interim reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis has smaller biases compared with most of the independent ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depth observations used for validation in this paper than the previous two reanalyses and is much improved and more consistent in time, especially compared to the MACC reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis is a dataset that can be used to compute climatologies, study trends, evaluate models, benchmark other reanalyses or serve as boundary conditions for regional models for past periods.

Description: The Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) assimilates fire radiative power (FRP) observations from satellite-based sensors to produce daily estimates of biomass burning emissions. It has been extended to include information about injection heights derived from fire observations and meteorological information from the operational weather forecasts of ECMWF. Injection heights are provided by two distinct methods: the Integrated Monitoring and Modelling System for wildland fires (IS4FIRES) parameterisation and the one-dimensional plume rise model (PRM). A global database of daily biomass burning emissions and injection heights at 0.1° resolution has been produced for 2003–2015 and is continuously extended in near-real time with the operational GFAS service of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). In this study, the two injection height data sets were compared with the new MPHP2 (MISR Plume Height Project 2) satellite-based plume height retrievals. The IS4FIRES parameterisation showed a better overall agreement than the observations, while the PRM was better at capturing the variability of injection heights. The performance of both parameterisations is also dependent on the type of vegetation. Furthermore, the use of biomass burning emission heights from GFAS in atmospheric composition forecasts was assessed in two case studies: the South AMerican Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) campaign which took place in September 2012 in Brazil, and a series of large fire events in the western USA in August 2013. For these case studies, forecasts of biomass burning aerosol species by the Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS) of CAMS were found to better reproduce the observed vertical distribution when using PRM injection heights from GFAS compared to aerosols emissions being prescribed at the surface. The globally available GFAS injection heights introduced and evaluated in this study provide a comprehensive data set for future fire and atmospheric composition modelling studies.

Description: A new global reanalysis data set of atmospheric composition (AC) for the period 2003–2015 has been produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Satellite observations of total column (TC) carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol optical depth (AOD), as well as several TC and profile observations of ozone, have been assimilated with the Integrated Forecasting System for Composition (C-IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Compared to the previous Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis (MACCRA), the new CAMS interim reanalysis (CAMSiRA) is of a coarser horizontal resolution of about 110 km, compared to 80 km, but covers a longer period with the intent to be continued to present day. This paper compares CAMSiRA with MACCRA and a control run experiment (CR) without assimilation of AC retrievals. CAMSiRA has smaller biases than the CR with respect to independent observations of CO, AOD and stratospheric ozone. However, ozone at the surface could not be improved by the assimilation because of the strong impact of surface processes such as dry deposition and titration with nitrogen monoxide (NO), which were both unchanged by the assimilation. The assimilation of AOD led to a global reduction of sea salt and desert dust as well as an exaggerated increase in sulfate. Compared to MACCRA, CAMSiRA had smaller biases for AOD, surface CO and TC ozone as well as for upper stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Finally, the temporal consistency of CAMSiRA was better than the one of MACCRA. This was achieved by using a revised emission data set as well as by applying careful selection and bias correction to the assimilated retrievals. CAMSiRA is therefore better suited than MACCRA for the study of interannual variability, as demonstrated for trends in surface CO.

Description: An eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003–2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system. This reanalysis provides fields of chemically reactive gases, namely carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, as well as aerosols and greenhouse gases globally at a horizontal resolution of about 80 km for both the troposphere and the stratosphere. This paper describes the assimilation system for the reactive gases and presents validation results for the reactive gas analysis fields to document the data set and to give a first indication of its quality. Tropospheric CO values from the MACC reanalysis are on average 10–20% lower than routine observations from commercial aircrafts over airports through most of the troposphere, and have larger negative biases in the boundary layer at urban sites affected by air pollution, possibly due to an underestimation of CO or precursor emissions. Stratospheric ozone fields from the MACC reanalysis agree with ozonesondes and ACE-FTS data to within ±10% in most seasons and regions. In the troposphere the reanalysis shows biases of −5% to +10% with respect to ozonesondes and aircraft data in the extratropics, but has larger negative biases in the tropics. Area-averaged total column ozone agrees with ozone fields from a multi-sensor reanalysis data set to within a few percent. NO2 fields from the reanalysis show the right seasonality over polluted urban areas of the NH and over tropical biomass burning areas, but underestimate wintertime NO2 maxima over anthropogenic pollution regions and overestimate NO2 in northern and southern Africa during the tropical biomass burning seasons. Tropospheric HCHO is well simulated in the MACC reanalysis even though no satellite data are assimilated. It shows good agreement with independent SCIAMACHY retrievals over regions dominated by biogenic emissions with some anthropogenic input, such as the eastern US and China, and also over African regions influenced by biogenic sources and biomass burning.

Description: This study presents a synthetic model intercomparison to investigate the importance of transport model errors for estimating the sources and sinks of CO2 using satellite measurements. The experiments were designed for testing the potential performance of the proposed CO2 lidar A-SCOPE, but also apply to other space borne missions that monitor total column CO2. The participating transport models IFS, LMDZ, TM3, and TM5 were run in forward and inverse mode using common a priori CO2 fluxes and initial concentrations. Forward simulations of column averaged CO2 (xCO2) mixing ratios vary between the models by σ=0.5 ppm over the continents and σ=0.27 ppm over the oceans. Despite the fact that the models agree on average on the sub-ppm level, these modest differences nevertheless lead to significant discrepancies in the inverted fluxes of 0.1 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over land and 0.03 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over the ocean. These transport model induced flux uncertainties exceed the target requirement that was formulated for the A-SCOPE mission of 0.02 PgC/yr per 106 km2, and could also limit the overall performance of other CO2 missions such as GOSAT. A variable, but overall encouraging agreement is found in comparison with FTS measurements at Park Falls, Darwin, Spitsbergen, and Bremen, although systematic differences are found exceeding the 0.5 ppm level. Because of this, our estimate of the impact of transport model uncerainty is likely to be conservative. It is concluded that to make use of the remote sensing technique for quantifying the sources and sinks of CO2 not only requires highly accurate satellite instruments, but also puts stringent requirements on the performance of atmospheric transport models. Improving the accuracy of these models should receive high priority, which calls for a closer collaboration between experts in atmospheric dynamics and tracer transport.

Description: An eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003–2010 was constructed as part of the FP7 funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system. This reanalysis provides fields of chemically reactive gases, namely carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, as well as aerosols and greenhouse gases globally at a resolution of about 80 km for both the troposphere and the stratosphere. This paper describes the assimilation system for the reactive gases and presents validation results for the reactive gases analysis fields to document the dataset and to give a first indication of its quality. Tropospheric CO values from the MACC reanalysis are on average 10–20% lower than routine observations from commercial aircrafts over airports through most of the troposphere, and have larger negative biases in the boundary layer at urban sites affected by air pollution, possibly due to an underestimation of CO or precursor emissions. Stratospheric ozone fields from the MACC reanalysis agree with ozone sondes and ACE-FTS data to within ±10% in most situations. In the troposphere the reanalysis shows biases of −5% to +10% with respect to ozone sondes and aircraft data in the extratropics, but has larger negative biases in the tropics. Area averaged total column ozone agrees with ozone fields from a multi sensor reanalysis data set to within a few percent. NO2 fields from the reanalysis show the right seasonality over polluted urban areas of the NH and over tropical biomass burning areas, but underestimate wintertime NO2 maxima over anthropogenic pollution regions and overestimate NO2 in Northern and Southern Africa during the tropical biomass burning seasons. Tropospheric HCHO is well simulated in the MACC reanalysis even though no satellite data are assimilated. It shows good agreement with independent SCIAMACHY retrievals over regions dominated by biogenic emissions with some anthropogenic input, such as the Eastern US and China, and also over African regions influenced by biogenic sources and biomass burning.

Description: To date, North Sea tidal flat sediments have been intensively studied down to a depth of 5 m below sea floor (mbsf). However, little is known about the biogeochemistry, microbial abundance, and activity of sulfate reducers as well of methanogens in deeper layers. For this study, we hypothesized that the imprint of the paleo-environment is reflected in current microbiogeochemical processes. Therefore, 20 m-long cores were retrieved from the tidal-flat area of Spiekeroog Island, NW Germany. Two drill sites were selected with a close distance of only 900 meters, but where sedimentation occurred under different environmental conditions: first, a paleo-channel filled with Holocene sediments and second, a mainly Pleistocene sedimentary succession. In general, the numbers of bacterial 16S rRNA genes are one to two orders of magnitude higher than those of Archaea. The abundances of key genes for sulfate reduction and methanogenesis (dsrA and mcrA) correspond to the sulfate and methane profiles. A co-variance of these key genes at sulfate-methane interfaces and enhanced potential AOM rates suggest that anaerobic oxidation of methane may occur in these layers. Microbial and biogeochemical profiles are vertically stretched relative to 5 m-deep cores from shallower sediments in the same study area. Compared to the deep marine environment, the profiles are transitional between the shallow subsurface and the marine deep biosphere. Our interdisciplinary analysis shows that the microbial abundances and metabolic rates are elevated in the Holocene compared to Pleistocene sediments. However, this is mainly due to present environmental conditions such as pore water flow and organic matter availability. The paleo-environmental imprint is still visible but superimposed by these processes.