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  • Wiley  (2)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-05-05
    Description: In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a Structured Expert Judgement to produce a first long-term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialise (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through: i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets, and ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these datasets were quantified explicitly with expert judgements, and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics, and sub-groupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that: a) Somma-Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium-large eruption will enlarge the present SV caldera, and d) there is a non-negligible probability (mean value of 6-10%) that the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract Dynamics of explosive eruptions is often strongly controlled by temporal changes in conduit geometry. Quantitative constraints to this problem are difficult to define, but basic information on the lithic fraction in pyroclastic deposits can be used as an input of numerical models to infer conduit and crater evolution in terms of shape and dimension. Field data on the 79 AD Pompeii eruption (Vesuvius, Italy) are used here to constrain depth‐dependent variations in conduit geometry. The different lithology of the accidental components, resulting from the erosion of a conduit/crater system crosscutting a well‐known subsurface stratigraphy, helps in defining the provenance depth of the eroded fragments. We reproduced the eruption evolution by considering three periods of the Plinian phase, associated with the white phonolitic pumice clasts (EU2a) and the tephro‐phonolitic gray pumice clasts (EU3a and EU3b). Results constrain the evolution of key eruptive parameters, and are consistent with the estimates of mass discharge rate (MDR) and volume of eroded lithic fragments, which require the involvement of conduit geometries with depth‐dependent diameters rather than a constant‐radius shape. The onset of the Plinian phase (EU2a) was characterized by intense crater excavation processes. The MDR increase during the transition from EU2 to EU3 coincided with a significant increase of conduit diameter at bottom. After the peak of MDR (EU3b), a significant deeping of the fragmentation level and an abrupt inlet pressure drop probably occurred. Exit pressure and velocity would have decreased during all the Plinian phase, consistent with a shift to a collapsing column dynamics.
    Print ISSN: 2169-9313
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-9356
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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