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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2015-06-05
    Description: The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Using the NIWA-UKCA chemistry-climate model, we compare reference runs that include forcing due to greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances to sensitivity simulations in which ozone depleting substances are fixed at their 1960 levels. We find that ozone depletion leads to an increased frequency of extreme anomalies and increased persistence of the SAM in the stratosphere as well as stronger, more persistent stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Currently the stratosphere provides an appreciable amount of predictability to the troposphere on time scales of one or two months, however we find that this effect reduces over time as stratospheric ozone recovers to pre-ozone hole levels towards the latter part of this century.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-05-11
    Description: We investigate the individual and joint decadal variability of Southern Ocean state quantities, such as the strength of the Ross and Weddell Gyres, Drake Passage transport, and sea ice area, using the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research UK Chemistry and Aerosols (NIWA-UKCA) model and CMIP5 models. Variability in these quantities is stimulated by strong deep reaching convective events in the Southern Ocean, which produce an Antarctic Bottom Water-like water mass and affect the large-scale meridional density structure in the Southern Ocean. An increase in the (near) surface stratification, due to freshwater forcing, can be a pre-condition for subsequent strong convection activity. The combination of enhanced-gyre driven sea ice and freshwater export, as well as ongoing subsurface heat accumulation, lead to a time lag between changes in oceanic freshwater and heat content. This causes an ongoing weakening of the stratification until sudden strong mixing events emerge and the heat is released to the atmosphere. We find that strong convection reduces sea ice cover, weakens the subpolar gyres, increases the meridional density gradient and subsequently results in a positive Drake Passage transport anomaly. Results of available CMIP5 models confirm that variability in sea ice, Drake Passage transport and the Weddell Gyre strength is enhanced if models show strong open ocean convective events. Consistent relationships between convection, sea ice, Drake Passage transport and Ross Gyre strength variability are evident in most models, whether or not they host open-ocean convection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract Model evaluation is difficult and generally relies on analysis which can mask compensating errors. This paper defines new metrics, using clusters generated from a machine learning algorithm, to estimate mean and compensating errors in different model runs. As a test case, we investigate the Southern Ocean shortwave radiative bias using clusters derived by applying self‐organizing maps to satellite data. In particular, the effects of changing cloud phase parameterizations in the MetOffice Unified Model are examined. Differences in cluster properties show that the regional radiative biases are substantially different than the global bias, with two distinct regions identified within the Southern Ocean, each with a different signed bias. Changing cloud phase parameterizations can reduce errors at higher latitudes, but increase errors at lower latitudes of the Southern Ocean. Ranking the parameterizations often shows a contrast in mean and compensating errors, notably in all cases large compensating errors remain.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-08-11
    Description: Nonlinear frequency response (NFR) method, which is an analytical, fast and easy method for evaluating the performance of forced periodically operated chemical reactors is used in this, two-part paper, for investigation of possible improvements of a non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) with simple reaction mechanism, when inlet concentration and flow-rate are periodically modulated, separately or simultaneously. Product yield corresponding to periodic operations is defined, expressions for its estimation, based on the NFR method, are derived for each investigated case and it is used for evaluating the performance improvements achieved through periodic operation. In Part I the general non-isothermal case is considered and in Part II, these results are applied to the case of an adiabatic CSTR and implemented for evaluation of possible improvements for the case of acetic acid anhydride hydrolysis reaction.
    Print ISSN: 0930-7516
    Electronic ISSN: 1521-4125
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology
    Published by Wiley
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-08-11
    Description: Nonlinear frequency response (NFR) method, which is an analytical, fast and easy method for evaluating the performance of forced periodically operated chemical reactors, is used for the investigation of possible improvements of a non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR). A model reaction characterized by a simple reaction mechanism is considered. Inlet concentration and flow-rate are periodically modulated, separately or simultaneously. The product yield is used for evaluating the performance improvements. In Part I of this paper the general non-isothermal case was considered. In this Part II the results are applied to the case of an adiabatic CSTR. For demonstration a laboratory-scale adiabatic CSTR is analyzed applying kinetic parameters for the hydrolysis of acetic acid anhydride. It is shown that improvement can be obtained for simultaneous modulation of the two inputs, with appropriately chosen forcing parameters (frequency, input amplitudes and phase difference).
    Print ISSN: 0930-7516
    Electronic ISSN: 1521-4125
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-05-18
    Description: This paper evaluates global mean radiatively important properties of chemistry climate models (CCMs). We evaluate stratospheric temperatures and their 1980–2000 trends, January clear sky irradiances, heating rates, and greenhouse gas radiative forcings from an offline comparison of CCM radiation codes with line-by-line models, and CCMs' representation of the solar cycle. CCM global mean temperatures and their change can give an indication of errors in radiative transfer codes and/or atmospheric composition. Biases in the global temperature climatology are generally small, although five out of 18 CCMs show biases in their climatology that likely indicate problems with their radiative transfer codes. Temperature trends also generally agree well with observations, although one model shows significant discrepancies that appear to be due to radiation errors. Heating rates and estimated temperature changes from CO2, ozone, and water vapor changes are generally well modeled. Other gases (N2O, CH4, and CFCs) have only played a minor role in stratospheric temperature change, but their heating rates have large fractional errors in many models. Models that do not account for variations in the spectrum of solar irradiance cannot properly simulate solar-induced variations in stratospheric temperature. The combined long-lived greenhouse gas global annual mean instantaneous net radiative forcing at the tropopause is within 30% of line-by-line models for all CCM radiation codes tested. Problems remain in simulating radiative forcing for stratospheric water vapor and ozone changes with errors between 3% and 200% compared to line by line models. The paper makes recommendations for CCM radiation code developers and future intercomparisons.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2015-06-04
    Description: Chloride (Cl – ), stable isotope ratios of water (δ 18 O and δ 2 H), sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), tritium ( 3 H), carbon-14 ( 14 C), noble gases ( 4 He, Ne and Ar) and hydrometry were used to characterise groundwater-surface water interactions, in particular infiltration rates, for the Lower Namoi River (New South Wales, Australia). The study period (four sampling campaigns between November 2009 and November 2011) represented the end of a decade-long drought followed by several high-flow events. The hydrometry showed that the river was generally losing to the alluvium, except when storm-derived floodwaves in the river channel generated bank recharge – discharge cycles. Using 3 H/ 14 C-derived estimates of groundwater mean residence times along the transect, infiltration rates ranged from 0.6 – 5 m year −1 . However, when using the peak transition age (a more realistic estimate of travel time in highly dispersive environments), the range in infiltration rate was larger (4 – 270 m year −1 ). Both river water (highest δ 2 H, δ 18 O, SF 6 , 3 H and 14 C) and an older groundwater source (lowest δ 2 H, δ 18 O, SF 6 , 3 H, 14 C and highest 4 He) were found in the riparian zone. This old groundwater end-member may represent leakage from an underlying confined aquifer (Great Artesian Basin). Environmental tracers may be used to estimate infiltration rates in this riparian environment but the presence of multiple sources of water and a high dispersion induced by frequent variations in the water table complicates their interpretation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: The structure of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex in three chemistry–climate models (CCMs) taken from the CCMVal-2 intercomparison is examined using zonal mean and geometric-based methods. The geometric methods are employed by taking 2D moments of potential vorticity fields that are representative of the polar vortices in each of the models. This allows the vortex area, centroid location and ellipticity to be determined, as well as a measure of vortex filamentation. The first part of the study uses these diagnostics to examine how well the mean state, variability and extreme variability of the polar vortices are represented in CCMs compared to ERA-40 reanalysis data, and in particular for the UMUKCA-METO, NIWA-SOCOL and CCSR/NIES models. The second part of the study assesses how the vortices are predicted to change in terms of the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings and their general structure over the period 1960–2100. In general, it is found that the vortices are climatologically too far poleward in the CCMs and produce too few large-scale filamentation events. Only a small increase is observed in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events from the mean of the CCMVal-2 models, but the distribution of extreme variability throughout the winter period is shown to change towards the end of the twentyfirst century. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-02-07
    Description: The meridional circulation of the stratosphere, or Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), is projected to accelerate with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The acceleration is typically quantified by changes in the tropical upward mass flux ( F trop ) across a given pressure surface. Simultaneously, models project a lifting of the entire atmospheric circulation in response to GHGs; notably, the tropopause rises about a kilometer over this century. In this study, it is shown that most of the BDC trend is associated with the rise in the circulation. Using a chemistry-climate model (CCM), F trop trends across 100 hPa are contrasted with those across the tropopause: while F trop at 100 hPa increases 1 – 2 %/decade, the mass flux entering the atmosphere above the tropopause actually decreases. Similar results are found for other CCMs, suggesting that changes in the BDC may better be described as an upward shift of the circulation, as opposed to an increase, with implications for the mechanism and stratosphere-troposphere exchange.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2012-06-01
    Description: We use Fourier transform infrared ground-based measurements and satellite and model data to assess long-range correlations in tropospheric carbon monoxide. We find that CO columns measured in New Zealand correlate well with those measured in Antarctica, if a transport-related lag is taken into account. The model suggests that this long-range correlation is part of a mode of anomalous CO comprising almost the whole southern extratropics, which is linked to biomass burning in the southern continents. No such mode is modeled for the Northern Hemisphere. The area of long-range correlations maximizes for the southern subtropical Pacific, which is identified as an advantageous location for a hypothetical new measurement station. The satellite data (produced by the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument) partially confirm these findings but with generally reduced correlations. In particular, the satellite data suggest no long-range correlation at high latitudes. This is partially explained in terms of retrieval limitations and partially reflects a model deficiency.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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