ALBERT

Description: Key Points: Daily snapshots of TIL strength; synoptic-Scale behavior of the TIL and shear/curl contributions to relative vorticity; TIL within ridges in midlatitude winter is stronger than polar summer TIL High-resolution GPS radio occultation temperature profiles from the COSMIC satellite mission (2007–2013) are used to obtain daily snapshots of the strength of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL). Its horizontal structure and day-to-day variability are linked to the synoptic situation at near-tropopause level. The strength of the TIL in cyclonic as well as anticyclonic conditions is investigated by separating relative vorticity into curl and shear terms. The analysis shows that the TIL has high zonal variability, and its strength is instantaneously adjusted to the synoptic situation at near-tropopause level. Our key finding is that the TIL within midlatitude ridges in winter is as strong as or stronger than the TIL in polar summer. The strongest TIL in anticyclonic conditions is related to the shear term, while the weaker TIL in cyclonic conditions is enhanced by the curl term.

Description: We present results from three multidecadal sensitivity experiments with time-varying solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) forcings using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3.1). The model experiments are unique compared to earlier studies as they use time-varying forcings for the solar cycle only and the QBO, both individually and combined. The results show that the annual mean solar response in the tropical upper stratosphere is independent of the presence of the QBO. The response in the middle to lower stratosphere differs depending on the presence of the QBO and the solar cycle but is statistically indistinguishable in the three experiments. The seasonal evolution of the solar and the combined solar-QBO signals reveals a reasonable agreement with observations only for the experiment in which both the solar cycle and the QBO forcing are present, suggesting that both forcings are important to generate the observed response. More stratospheric warmings occur during solar maximum and QBO west conditions. This appears to be the result of a QBO modulation of the background zonal mean wind climatology, which modifies the solar signal. Depending on the background wind, the small initial early winter solar signal in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere is enhanced during QBO east and diminished during QBO west conditions. This consequently influences the transfer of the solar-QBO signal during winter and results in the observed differences during late winter

Description: Data assimilation was recently suggested to smooth out the sharp gradients that characterize the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in systems that did not assimilate TIL-resolving observations. We investigate whether this effect is present in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational forecast system (which assimilate high-resolution observations) by analyzing the 4D-Var increments and how the TIL is represented in their data assimilation systems. For comparison, we also diagnose the TIL from high-resolution GPS radio occultation temperature profiles from the COSMIC satellite mission, degraded to the same vertical resolution as ERA-Interim and ECMWF operational analyses. Our results show that more recent reanalysis and forecast systems improve the representation of the TIL, updating the earlier hypothesis. However, the TIL in ERA-Interim and ECMWF operational analyses is still weaker and farther away from the tropopause than GPS radio occultation observations of the same vertical resolution.

Description: Observational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived “frozen-in” anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational-based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry climate model. Three 145 year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter-to-summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high-latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences.

Description: The recent variability of the tropopause temperature and the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) are investigated with Global Positioning System Radio Occultation data and simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Over the past decade (2001–2011) the data show an increase of 0.8 K in the tropopause temperature and a decrease of 0.4 K in the strength of the tropopause inversion layer in the tropics, meaning that the vertical temperature gradient has declined, and therefore that the stability above the tropopause has weakened. WACCM simulations with finer vertical resolution show a more realistic TIL structure and variability. Model simulations show that the increased tropopause temperature and the weaker tropopause inversion layer are related to weakened upwelling in the tropics. Such changes in the thermal structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere may have important implications for climate, such as a possible rise in water vapor in the lower stratosphere.

Description: One decade of time-variable gravity field observations from the GRACE satellite mission reveals low-frequency ocean bottom pressure (OBP) variability of up to 2.5 hPa centered at the northern flank of the subtropical gyre in the North Pacific. From a 145 year-long simulation with a coupled chemistry climate model, OBP variability is found to be related to the prevailing atmospheric sea-level pressure and surface wind conditions in the larger North Pacific area. The dominating atmospheric pressure patterns obtained from the climate model run allow in combination with ERA-Interim sea-level pressure and surface winds a reconstruction of the OBP variability in the North Pacific from atmospheric model data only, which correlates favorably (r=0.7) with GRACE ocean bottom pressure observations. The regression results indicate that GRACE-based OBP observations are indeed sensitive to changes in the prevailing sea-level pressure and thus surface wind conditions in the North Pacific, thereby opening opportunities to constrain atmospheric models from satellite gravity observations over the oceans.

Description: Major stratospheric sudden warmings are prominent disturbances of the Northern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere. Understanding the factors controlling major warmings is required, since the associated circulation changes can propagate down into the troposphere and affect the surface climate, suggesting enhanced prediction skill when these processes are accurately represented in models. In this study we investigate how different natural and anthropogenic factors, namely, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances, influence the frequency, variability, and life cycle of major warmings. This is done using sensitivity experiments performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is able to simulate the life cycle of major warmings realistically. The QBO strengthens the climatological stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) and significantly reduces the frequency of major warmings through reduction of planetary wave propagation into the PNJ region. Variability in SSTs weakens the PNJ and significantly increases the major warming frequency due to enhanced wave forcing. Even extreme climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) do not influence the total frequency but determine the prewarming phase of major warmings. The amplitude and duration of major warmings seem to be mainly determined by internal stratospheric variability. We also suggest that SST variability, two-way ocean/atmosphere coupling, and hence the memory of the ocean are needed to reproduce the observed tropospheric negative Northern Annular Mode pattern after major warmings.

Description: The consequences of different quasi‒biennial oscillation (QBO) nudging widths on stratospheric dynamics and chemistry are analyzed by comparing two model simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) where the width of the QBO is varied between 22° and 8.5° north and south. The sensitivity to the nudging width is strongest in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter where the Holton‒Tan effect in the polar stratosphere, i.e., stronger zonal mean winds during QBO west phases, is enhanced for the wider compared to the narrower nudging case. The differences between QBO west and east conditions for the two model experiments can be explained with differences in wave propagation, wave‒mean flow interaction, and the residual circulation. In the wider nudging case, a divergence anomaly in the midlatitude upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere occurs together with an equatorward anomaly of the residual circulation. This seems to result in a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient and hence a significant strengthening of the polar night jet (PNJ). In the narrower nudging case, these circulation changes are weaker and not statistically significant, consistent with a weaker and less significant impact on the PNJ. Chemical tracers like ozone, water vapor, and methane react accordingly. From a comparison of westerly minus easterly phase composite differences in the model to reanalysis and satellite data, we conclude that the standard WACCM configuration (QBO22) generates more realistic QBO effects in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry during NH winter. Our study also confirms the importance of the secondary mean meridional circulation associated with the QBO for the Holton‒Tan effect.

Description: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are extreme events in the polar stratosphere that are both caused by and have effects on the tropospheric flow. This means that SSWs are associated with changes in the angular momentum of the atmosphere, both before and after their onset. Because these angular momentum changes are transferred to the solid Earth, they can be observed in the rate of the Earth's rotation and the wobble of its rotational pole. By comparing observed Earth rotation variations to reanalysis data, we find that an anomaly in the orientation of the Earth's rotational pole, up to 4 times as large as the annual polar wobble, typically precedes SSWs by 20-40 days. The polar motion signal is due to pressure anomalies that are typically seen before SSW events and represents a new type of observable that may aid in the prediction of SSWs. A decline in the length of day is also seen, on average, near the time of the SSW wind reversal and is found to be due to anomalous easterly winds generated in the tropical troposphere around this time, though the structure and timing of this signal seems to vary widely from event to event.

Description: Several international initiatives are working to stitch together data describing solar forcing of Earth’s climate. Their objective is to improve understanding of climate response to solar variability...