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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2012-04-05
    Description: Synoptic messages (SYNOP) exchanged internationally for operational weather forecasting are regularly used to extend validated (quality controlled) daily climate time series to the present day, despite differences in measuring intervals and lack of validation. Here we focus on the effect of this on derived climate indices of extremes in Europe. Validated time series are taken from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). Validated data and SYNOP over the period 01 April 1982 to 31 December 2004 are compared. The distribution of the difference series of validated data and SYNOP is skewed. Generally, minimum temperatures are lower or equal in the validated series, while maximum temperatures are higher or equal. This is at least partly due to the 24-hour (validated data) versus 12-hour (SYNOP) measuring intervals. The precipitation results are dependent on the difference between the measuring intervals of both time series. Time series of indices of extremes exhibit a non-climatic inhomogeneity for several indices when SYNOP are used to extend the validated series, leading to spurious trends. The sizes of the trends in pure validated and pure SYNOP series are generally in good agreement, but the absolute values of the indices show an offset. Accepting a trend error of 10%, the averaged winter minimum and maximum temperature and the number of tropical nights (minimum temperature 〉20°C) in summer allow only a very small fraction of SYNOP in the extended series (about 5–10%), while for the other indices studied here a larger fraction can be used (up to 50%).
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2015-10-07
    Description: Global radiation is a fundamental source of energy in the climate system. A significant impact of global radiation on temperature change is expected due to the widespread dimming/brightening phenomenon observed since the second half of the 20th century. This work describes the analysis of 312 stations with sunshine duration (SD) series, a proxy for global radiation, and temperature series in the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) with data over the period 1961–2010. The relationship between SD and temperature series is analysed for four temperature variables: maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean), and diurnal temperature range (DTR). The analyses are performed on annual and seasonal basis. The results show strong positive correlations between SD and temperatures over Europe, with highest correlation for DTR and Tmax during the summer period. These results confirm the strong relationship between SD and temperature trends over Europe since the second half of the 20th century. This study supports previous suggestions that dimming (brightening) has partially decreased (increased) temperatures thereby modulating the greenhouse gas induced warming rates over Europe.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2011-06-08
    Description: In this study we introduce a daily high-resolution land-only observational gridded data set for sea level pressure covering the European region as a new addition to the E-OBS gridded data sets of daily temperatures and precipitation amounts. This data set improves upon existing products in terms of spatial resolution and extent. The data set is delivered on the same four spatial resolutions as the other E-OBS data sets: 0.25° by 0.25° and 0.5° by 0.5° on a regular latitude-longitude grid and 0.22° by 0.22° and 0.44° by 0.44° on a rotated pole grid. We show that there is a good agreement in the long-term mean and standard deviation with popular reanalysis grids. In areas with a relatively high number of stations, the gridded data is closer to the station data than the reanalysis products. There is also a very good agreement with daily weather charts for selected storm events.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2014-10-25
    Description: The effects of urbanization on the rise of the European daily mean temperature is quantified by comparing European averaged temperatures based on all meteorological stations in the European Climate Assessment & Dataset with those based on three subsets of stations: from rural areas, from areas with low growth in urbanization and with stations characterized by relatively low temperature increase. Land cover information is obtained using the CORINE dataset, showing that most stations (75%) have a small percentage (up to 10%) of urban area within a 10 km radius and 81% saw no more than 1% change in urbanization between 1990 and 2006. The results show that urbanization explains 0.0026 °C/decade of the annual-averaged pan-European temperature trend of 0.179 °C/decade. This trend has a strong seasonality, being the largest in summer. Averaged over time, the effects of urbanization on the European-averaged temperature has a strong seasonality as well.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-04-23
    Description: It has been a decade since changes in Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) globally have been assessed in a stand-alone data analysis. The present study takes advantage of substantively improved basic data holdings arising from the International Surface Temperature Initiative's databank effort, and applies the National Centers for Environmental Information's automated pairwise homogeneity assessment algorithm, to reassess DTR records. It is found that breakpoints are more prevalent in DTR than other temperature elements, and that the resulting adjustments have a broader distribution. This strongly implies that there is an over-arching tendency, across the global meteorological networks, for non-climatic artifacts to impart either random or anti-correlated rather than correlated biases in maximum and minimum temperature series. Future homogenization efforts would likely benefit from simultaneous consideration of DTR, maximum and minimum, in addition to average temperatures. Estimates of change in DTR are relatively insensitive to whether adjustments are calculated directly or inferred from adjustments returned for the maximum and minimum temperature series. The homogenized series exhibit a reduction in DTR since the mid-20 th Century globally (-0.044 K/decade). Adjustments serve to approximately halve the long-term global reduction in DTR in the basic ‘raw’ data. Most of the estimated DTR reduction occurred over 1960-1980. In several regions DTR has apparently increased over 1979-2012, whilst globally it has exhibited very little change (-0.016 K/decade). Estimated changes in DTR are an order of magnitude smaller than in maximum and minimum temperatures, which have both been increasing rapidly on multi-decadal timescales (0.186 K/decade and 0.236 K/decade respectively since the mid-twentieth Century).
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-04-23
    Description: Changes in Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) over global land areas are compared from a broad range of independent datasets. All datasets agree that global-mean DTR has decreased significantly since 1950, with most of that decrease occurring over 1960-1980. The since-1979 trends are not significant, with inter-dataset disagreement even over the sign of global changes. Inter-dataset spread becomes greater regionally and in particular at the gridbox level. Despite this, there is general agreement that DTR decreased in N. America, Europe and Australia since 1951, with this decrease being partially reversed over Australia and Europe since the early 1980s. There is substantive disagreement between datasets prior to the mid-20 th Century, particularly over Europe, which precludes making any meaningful conclusions about DTR changes prior to 1950, either globally or regionally. Several variants that undertake a broad range of approaches to post-processing steps of gridding and interpolation were analyzed for two of the datasets. These choices have a substantial influence in data sparse regions or periods. The potential of further insights is therefore inextricably linked with the efficacy of data rescue and digitization for maximum and minimum temperature series prior to 1950 everywhere, and in data sparse regions throughout the period of record. Over North America, station selection and homogeneity assessment is the primary determinant. Over Europe, where the basic station data is similar, the post-processing choices are dominant. We assess that globally-averaged DTR has decreased since the mid-twentieth Century, but that this decrease has not been linear.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-05-02
    Description: [1]  A European average temperature with monthly resolution is constructed based on the E-OBS daily dataset with near real-time updates for monitoring. Taken together, the European average temperature and the associated gridded daily maps of surface temperature from the E-OBS dataset provide a detailed record of European climate variability and change since 1950. Both are based on validated station data provided by the European National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. A quantitative analysis of the uncertainty sources to the European average temperature indicates that the uncertainties due to urbanization, statistical interpolation and the potential inhomogeneities in the input records to E-OBS dominate the total uncertainty estimate. In the aggregation of the interpolation uncertainty from the daily to the monthly level and then to a European averaged value, the effective sample size and the effective spatial degrees of freedom are estimated to account for spatial and temporal coherency in the uncertainty estimates. The European average temperature shows that seven years in the top-10 of warmest years are from the period starting as recent as the year 2000 and a clear upward trend in annual average temperatures over the last few decades is visible. The most recent year in the top-10 of coldest years is 1987. It also shows that warming in Europe is accelerating compared to the warming over the global land masses and to a lesser extent compared to the Northern Hemisphere land masses over the period 1980-2010.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-01-25
    Description: [1]  In this study we present the collation and analysis of the gridded land-based dataset of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX2. Indices were calculated based on station data using a consistent approach recommended by the WMO Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, resulting in the production of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation observations. High quality in situ observations from over 6000 temperature and 11000 precipitation meteorological stations across the globe were obtained to calculate the indices over the period of record available for each station. Monthly and annual indices were then interpolated onto a 3.75° x 2.5° longitude-latitude grid over the period 1901–2010. Linear trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Overall there was very good agreement with the previous HadEX dataset during the overlapping data period. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes consistent with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature over the whole 110 years of record but with stronger trends in more recent decades. Seasonal results showed significant warming in all seasons but more so in the colder months. Precipitation indices also showed widespread and significant trends, but the changes were much more spatially heterogeneous compared with temperature changes. However, results indicated more areas with significant increasing trends in extreme precipitation amounts, intensity and frequency than areas with decreasing trends.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2012-11-30
    Description: Regional frequency analysis is often used to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of distribution parameters and quantiles. In this paper a regional peaks-over-threshold model is introduced that can be used to analyze precipitation extremes in a changing climate. We use a temporally varying threshold, which is determined by quantile regression for each site separately. The marginal distributions of the excesses are described by generalized Pareto distributions (GPD). The parameters of these distributions may vary over time and their spatial variation is modeled by the index flood (IF) approach. We consider different models for the temporal dependence of the GPD parameters. Parameter estimation is based on the framework of composite likelihood. Composite likelihood ratio tests that account for spatial dependence are used to test the significance of temporal trends in the model parameters and to test the IF assumption. We apply the method to gridded, observed daily precipitation data from the Netherlands for the winter season. A general increase of the threshold is observed, especially along the west coast and northern parts of the country. Moreover, there is no indication that the ratio between the GPD scale parameter and the threshold has changed over time, which implies that the scale parameter increases by the same percentage as the threshold. These positive trends lead to an increase of rare extremes of on average 22% over the country during the observed period.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2012-11-17
    Description: ABSTRACT Significant trends in precipitation extremes over Europe since the middle of the 20th century have been found in earlier studies. Most of these studies are based on descriptive indices of moderate extremes that occur on average a few times per year. Here we have analyzed rarer precipitation events which occur on average once in 5, 10 and 20 years in the 1950s and 1960s using extreme value theory. We have focused on the 1-d and 5-d precipitation amounts in Northern and Southern Europe in all four seasons. Changes over the time period 1951–2010 are studied by considering five consecutive 20-year time intervals with 10-year overlap. Despite considerable decadal variability, our results indicate that 5-, 10- and 20-year events of 1-d and 5-d precipitation for the first 20-year period generally became more common during this 60-year period. For all regions, seasons and return periods, the median reduction in return period between the first and last 20-year periods is ∼21% with variations between a decrease of ∼2% and ∼58%. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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