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  • Other Sources  (8)
  • Wiley  (8)
  • 2015-2019  (8)
  • 2017  (3)
  • 2015  (5)
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  • Other Sources  (8)
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  • 2015-2019  (8)
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  • 1
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (21). 11,166-11,173.
    Publication Date: 2020-06-29
    Description: The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing ENSO phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (1). pp. 602-616.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: A multi-mode, linear reduced-gravity model, driven by ERA-Interim monthly mean wind stress anomalies, is used to investigate interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea level as seen in satellite altimeter data. The model output is fitted to the altimeter data along the equator, in order to derive the vertical profile for the model forcing, showing that a signature from modes higher than mode six cannot be extracted from the altimeter data. It is shown that the model has considerable skill at capturing interannual sea level variability both on and off the equator. The correlation between modelled and satellite-derived sea level data exceeds 0.8 over a wide range of longitudes along the equator and readily captures the observed ENSO events. Overall, the combination of the first, second, third and fifth modes can provide a robust estimate of the interannual sea level variability, the second mode being dominant. A remarkable feature of both the model and the altimeter data is the presence of a pivot point in the western Pacific on the equator. We show that the westward displacement of the pivot point from the centre of the basin is strongly influenced by the fact that most of the wind stress variance is found in the western part of the basin. We also show that the Sverdrup transport is not fundamental to the dynamics of the recharge/discharge mechanism in our model, although the spatial structure of the wind forcing does play a role in setting the amplitude of the “warm water volume”.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 . pp. 5540-5546.
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: We examine the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) bias on inter-annual variability during boreal summer over the equatorial Atlantic using two suites of partially coupled model (PCM) experiments with and without surface heat flux correction. In the experiments, surface wind stress anomalies are specified from observations while the thermodynamic coupling between the atmospheric and oceanic components is still active as in the fully coupled model. The results show that the PCM can capture around 50% of the observed variability associated with the Atlantic Niño from 1958 to 2013, but only when the bias is substantially reduced using heat flux correction, with no skill otherwise. We further show that ocean dynamics explain a large part of the SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in both observations (50-60%) and the PCM experiments (50-70%) with heat flux correction, implying that the seasonal predictability potential may be higher than currently thought.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (22). 10,037-10,046.
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Description: Variability of mid-latitude blocking in the boreal winter northern hemisphere is investigated for the period 1960/61 to 2001/02 by means of relaxation experiments with the model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is shown that there is pronounced interannual and decadal variability in blocking, especially over the Eurasian continent, consistent with previous studies. The relaxation experiments show that realistic variability in the tropics can account for a significant part of observed interannual blocking variability, but also that about half of the observed variability can only be explained by extratropical tropospheric variability. On the quasi-decadal time scale, extratropical sea surface temperature and sea-ice, in addition to tropical variability, play a more important role. The stratosphere, which has been shown to influence interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation in previous studies, has no significant influence on blocking according to our analysis.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (15). pp. 6454-6461.
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin-up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2–5 and 6–9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI-ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2–5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6–9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016–2019 and 2020–2024, predicting an end to the hiatus.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 6
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (18). pp. 7732-7739.
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: Ocean–atmosphere interactions play a key role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales from seasonal to decadal and longer. The extratropical oceans are thought to exert noticeable feedbacks on the atmosphere especially on decadal and longer time scales, yet the large-scale atmospheric response to anomalous extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) is still under debate. Here we show, by means of dedicated high-resolution atmospheric model experiments, that sufficient daily variability in the extratropical background SST needs to be resolved to force a statistically significant large-scale atmospheric response to decadal North Pacific SST anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is consistent with observations. The large-scale response is mediated by atmospheric eddies. This implies that daily extratropical SST fluctuations must be simulated by the ocean components and resolved by the atmospheric components of global climate models to enable realistic simulation of decadal North Pacific sector climate variability.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 7
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (21). pp. 9379-9386.
    Publication Date: 2020-11-04
    Description: A global ocean model with 1/12∘ horizontal resolution is used to assess the seasonal cycle of surface Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE). The model reproduces the salient features of the observed mean surface EKE, including amplitude and phase of its seasonal cycle in most parts of the ocean. In all subtropical gyres of the Pacific and Atlantic, EKE peaks in summer down to a depth of ∼350 m, below which the seasonal cycle is weak. Investigation of the possible driving mechanisms reveals the seasonal changes in the thermal interactions with the atmosphere to be the most likely cause of the summer maximum of EKE. The development of the seasonal thermocline in spring and summer is accompanied by stronger mesoscale variations in the horizontal temperature gradients near the surface which corresponds, by thermal wind balance, to an intensification of mesoscale velocity anomalies towards the surface.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-01-31
    Description: We show how a barotropic shallow water model can be used to decompose the mean barotropic transport from a high-resolution ocean model based on the vertically-averaged momentum equations. We apply the method to a high resolution model of the North Atlantic for which the local vorticity budget is both noisy and dominated by small spatial scales. The shallow water model acts as an effective filter and clearly reveals the transport driven by each term. The potential energy (JEBAR) term is the most important for driving transport, including in the northwest corner, while mean flow advection is important for driving transport along f/H contours around the Labrador Sea continental slope. Both the eddy momentum flux and the mean flow advection terms drive significant transport along the pathway of the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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