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  • Articles  (62)
  • Wiley  (62)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 1999-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract Aim Phenology of a wide diversity of organisms has a dependency on climate, usually with reproductive periods beginning earlier in the year and lasting longer at lower latitudes. Temperature and day length are known environmental drivers of the reproductive timing of many species. Hence, reproductive phenology is sensitive to warming and is important to be considered for reliable predictions of species distributions. This is particularly relevant for rapidly spreading non‐indigenous species (NIS). In this study, we forecast the future ranges of a NIS, the seaweed Sargassum muticum, including its reproductive phenology. Location Coastal areas of the Northern Hemisphere (Pacific and Atlantic oceans). Methods We used ecological niche modelling to predict the distribution of S. muticum under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes. We then refined our predictions with a hybrid model using sea surface temperature constraints on reproductive phenology. Results Under the most severe climate change scenario, we predicted northward expansions which may have significant ecological consequences for subarctic coastal ecosystems. However, in lower latitudes, habitats currently occupied by S. muticum will no longer be suitable, creating opportunities for substantial community changes. The temperature constraints imposed by the reproductive window were shown to restrict the modelled future species expansion strongly. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the total range area was expected to increase by 61.75% by 2100, but only by 1.63% when the reproductive temperature window was considered. Main conclusions Altogether these results exemplify the need to integrate phenology better to improve the prediction of future distributional shifts at local and regional scales.
    Print ISSN: 1366-9516
    Electronic ISSN: 1472-4642
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2013-01-17
    Description: [1]  Estimates of surface fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) can be derived from atmospheric CO 2 concentration measurements through the solution of an inverse problem, but the sparseness of the existing CO 2 monitoring network is often cited as a main limiting factor in constraining fluxes. Existing methods for assessing or designing monitoring networks either primarily rely on expert knowledge, or are sensitive to the large number of modeling choices and assumptions inherent to the solution of inverse problems. This study proposes a monitoring network evaluation and design approach based on the quantification of the spatial variability in modeled atmospheric CO 2 . The approach is used to evaluate the 2004-2008 North American network expansion, and to create two hypothetical further expansions. The less stringent expansion guarantees a monitoring tower within one correlation length of each location (1 CL), requiring an additional 8 towers relative to 2008. The more stringent network includes a tower within one half of a correlation length (½ CL) and requires 35 towers beyond the 1 CL network. The two proposed networks are evaluated against the network in 2008, which temporarily had the most continuous monitoring sites in North America thanks to the Mid-Continent Intensive project. Evaluation using a synthetic data inversion shows a marked improvement in the ability to constrain both continental- and biome-scale fluxes, especially in areas that are currently under-sampled. The proposed approach is flexible, computationally inexpensive, and provides a quantitative design tool that can be used in concert with existing tools to inform atmospheric monitoring needs.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: An important component of the assimilation of radiance observations from the AIRS and IASI satellite instruments is the radiative transfer modelling. Currently, the RTTOV model used in the ECMWF IFS system uses a fixed value for CO 2 . Neglecting the spatio-temporal variability of CO 2 introduces an error in the simulation of the satellite radiances, which could affect the quality of the analyses and forecasts. The current assumption is that variational bias correction corrects most of this error and therefore minimizes the impact on the forecast scores. This paper investigates the possibility of modelling CO 2 within the IFS to improve the radiative transfer modelling. Results show that the required bias correction is significantly reduced when using more realistic CO 2 values. The impact on the analysis quality and forecast scores is mostly neutral with some indication of improvement in the Tropics and the stratosphere. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2011-09-06
    Description: An important component of the assimilation of radiance observations from the AIRS and IASI satellite instruments is the radiative transfer modelling. Currently, the RTTOV model used in the ECMWF IFS system uses a fixed value for CO 2 . Neglecting the spatio-temporal variability of CO 2 introduces an error in the simulation of the satellite radiances, which could affect the quality of the analyses and forecasts. The current assumption is that variational bias correction corrects most of this error and therefore minimizes the impact on the forecast scores. This paper investigates the possibility of modelling CO 2 within the IFS to improve the radiative transfer modelling. Results show that the required bias correction is significantly reduced when using more realistic CO 2 values. The impact on the analysis quality and forecast scores is mostly neutral with some indication of improvement in the Tropics and the stratosphere. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2014-04-10
    Description: In 2002, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the ENVIromental SATellite (ENVISAT) that carried ten instruments to provide continuous observation of Earth's land, atmosphere, oceans and ice caps. During the satellite lifetime, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has routinely monitored a variety of products from many of its instruments. A subset of these data has also been assimilated in the ECMWF operational system, and two of its applications: the reanalysis and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate systems. This paper reviews those activities and summarises the lessons learnt in monitoring and assimilating data from a research satellite within a numerical weather prediction system. The value of continuous data monitoring and the benefits that a close collaboration between data provider and data user can bring to both parties are highlighted. For observations that were assimilated, impact assessments on the ECMWF products have periodically been performed. Two cases are presented in this paper. The first one shows that the assimilation of ocean wave information can reduce the wave height model random error by up to 8% at the analysis time, with benefits at later forecasts times extending to up to 5 days in the tropics. The second example shows that the assimilation of two ENVISAT ozone products improves the agreement of the ozone analyses with independent ozone observations obtained from sondes and the Microwave Limb Sounder. Finally, the use of ENVISAT reprocessed data is presented with emphasis on the importance of data reprocessing and long-term data preservation as key activities to ensure the future usage of these datasets.
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-07-25
    Description: [1]  In any data assimilation framework, the background error covariance statistics play the critical role of filtering the observed information and determining the quality of the analysis. For atmospheric CO 2 data assimilation, however, the background errors cannot be prescribed via traditional forecast or ensemble-based techniques as these fail to account for the uncertainties in the carbon emissions and uptake, or for the errors associated with the CO 2 transport model. We propose an approach where the differences between two modeled CO 2 concentration fields, based on different but plausible CO 2 flux distributions and atmospheric transport models, are used as a proxy for the statistics of the background errors. The resulting error statistics - 1) vary regionally and seasonally to better capture the uncertainty in the background CO 2 field, and 2) have a positive impact on the analysis estimates by allowing observations to adjust predictions over large areas. A state-of-the-art 4-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is used to illustrate the impact of the proposed approach for characterizing background error statistics on atmospheric CO 2 concentration estimates. Observations from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are assimilated into the ECMWF 4D-VAR system along with meteorological variables, using both the new error statistics and those based on a traditional forecast-based technique. Evaluation of the 4-dimensional CO 2 fields against independent CO 2 observations confirms that the performance of the data assimilation system improves substantially in the summer, when significant variability and uncertainty in the fluxes are present.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-10-31
    Description: Latitudinal gradients in species interactions are widely cited as potential causes or consequences of global patterns of biodiversity. However, mechanistic studies documenting changes in interactions across broad geographic ranges are limited. We surveyed predation intensity on common prey (live amphipods and gastropods) in communities of eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) at 48 sites across its Northern Hemisphere range, encompassing over 37 0 of latitude and four continental coastlines. Predation on amphipods declined with latitude on all coasts but declined more strongly along western ocean margins where temperature gradients are steeper. Whereas in situ water temperature at the time of the experiments was uncorrelated with predation, mean annual temperature strongly positively predicted predation, suggesting a more complex mechanism than simple increased metabolic activity at the time of predation. This large-scale biogeographic pattern was modified by local habitat characteristics; predation declined with higher shoot density both among and within sites. Predation rates on gastropods, by contrast, were uniformly low and varied little among sites. The high replication and geographic extent of our study not only provides additional evidence to support biogeographic variation in intensity, but also insight into the mechanisms that relate temperature and biogeographic gradients in species interactions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0012-9658
    Electronic ISSN: 1939-9170
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Wiley on behalf of The Ecological Society of America (ESA).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract The increasing urbanization process is hypothesized to drastically alter (semi‐)natural environments with a concomitant major decline in species abundance and diversity. Yet, studies on this effect of urbanization, and the spatial scale at which it acts, are at present inconclusive due to the large heterogeneity in taxonomic groups and spatial scales at which this relationship has been investigated among studies. Comprehensive studies analysing this relationship across multiple animal groups and at multiple spatial scales are rare, hampering the assessment of how biodiversity generally responds to urbanization. We studied aquatic (cladocerans), limno‐terrestrial (bdelloid rotifers) and terrestrial (butterflies, ground beetles, ground‐ and web spiders, macro‐moths, orthopterans and snails) invertebrate groups using a hierarchical spatial design wherein three local‐scale (200 m × 200 m) urbanization levels were repeatedly sampled across three landscape‐scale (3 km × 3 km) urbanization levels. We tested for local and landscape urbanization effects on abundance and species richness of each group, whereby total richness was partitioned into the average richness of local communities and the richness due to variation among local communities. Abundances of the terrestrial active dispersers declined in response to local urbanization, with reductions up to 85% for butterflies, while passive dispersers did not show any clear trend. Species richness also declined with increasing levels of urbanization, but responses were highly heterogeneous among the different groups with respect to the richness component and the spatial scale at which urbanization impacts richness. Depending on the group, species richness declined due to biotic homogenization and/or local species loss. This resulted in an overall decrease in total richness across groups in urban areas. These results provide strong support to the general negative impact of urbanization on abundance and species richness within habitat patches and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial scales and taxa to assess the impacts of urbanization.
    Print ISSN: 1354-1013
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2486
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Published by Wiley
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2008-07-01
    Print ISSN: 0040-747X
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-9663
    Topics: Geography
    Published by Wiley
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