ALBERT

Description: Since 1990, the IPCC has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs) including agriculture. Using a database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs, our conclusions are that crop yields decline but with large statistical variation. Livestock effects have almost been quantitatively absent. Mitigation assessments need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security; agriculture has been dealt with inconsistently between the IPCC five ARs. IPCC needs to examine interactions between crop resource use efficiencies and include production and nonproduction aspects of food security. Abstract Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.

Description: Abstract Bering Sea sea‐ice during winter 2017‐2018 was the lowest ever recorded. Ecosystem effects of low ice have been observed in the southeastern Bering Sea (SEBS), but never in the northern Bering Sea (NBS). Observations in both systems included weakened water column stratification, delayed spring bloom, and low abundances of large crustacean zooplankton. Summer Cold Pool presence was extremely limited. Young Walleye Pollock production and condition were similar to prior warm years, though catches of other pelagic forage fishes were low. Summer seabird die offs were observed in the NBS, and to lesser extent in the SEBS, and reproductive success was poor at monitored colonies. Selected bottom‐up responses to lack of sea‐ice in the North were similar to those in the South, potentially providing environmental indicators to project ecosystem effects in a lesser‐studied system. Results offer a potential glimpse of the broader Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem under future low‐ice projections.

Description: Abstract Aim Alexander von Humboldt observed that plant communities on different continents but under similar climatic conditions shared few common species but often contained representatives of the same genera or higher taxonomic groups. To test if this observation can be extended to substrate type, we explored whether a phylogenetic signature could be seen among floras growing on ultramafic substrates that present challenging edaphic conditions for plant growth and are well‐known for their distinctive vegetation. Location Cuba, Madagascar, New Caledonia. Taxon Angiosperms. Methods We compared the floras of Cuba, Madagascar and New Caledonia to test whether the same plant families were under‐ or over‐represented on the ultramafic substrates of the three islands. Results Pairwise comparisons showed that plant orders and families tended to have the same behaviour on the three islands, i.e. ultramafic substrates filtered (in favour of or against) the same plant groups in the three biogeographical distinct areas. The COM clade (comprising Celastrales, Oxalidales and Malpighiales) appears to be over‐represented on ultramafic substrates in all three islands and contains over half of the world's known nickel hyperaccumulators. Main conclusions Our analyses provide support for Humboldt's observation by showing that ecological sorting can favour the same plant lineages in similar environments in different biogeographical regions.

Description: The projected impact of 1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impacts of warming of 〈2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade. Abstract Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming 〉2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming 〈2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

Description: Abstract Stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in the Bona‐Churchill (B‐C) ice core from southeast Alaska provide a valuable, high‐resolution history of climate variability and sea ice cover in the western Arctic over the last 800 years. Multiple ice cores have been collected from the Wrangell‐St. Elias Mountain Range; however, their δ18O records exhibit little consistency as each core offers a unique view on local, regional, and/or global climate variability. To explore the primary mechanisms influencing the isotopic signature at the B‐C site, we utilize isotope‐enabled model data, reanalysis data, and observations, which all indicate a strong connection between isotopes at the B‐C site and western Arctic climate, likely established by the location of the storm track in this region. Enriched B‐C δ18O reflects increased southerly flow and warmer waters in the Bering Sea, which modulates the heat flux through the Bering Strait and into the Arctic, thereby affecting sea ice cover in the western Arctic. The B‐C δ18O paleorecord shares some remarkable similarities (r = −0.80, p 〈 .001) with the duration of western arctic sea ice cover reconstructed from a Chukchi Sea sediment core. Interestingly, during the Little Ice Age, enriched δ18O and reduced western Arctic sea ice are observed and may be indicative of prolonged periods of the warm Arctic/cold continents pattern and a northwestward shift of the North Pacific storm track.

Description: Abstract Oceanographic conditions on the continental shelf of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, affect sea ice production, Antarctic Bottom Water formation, mass loss from the Ross Ice Shelf, and ecosystems. Since ship access to the Ross Sea is restricted by sea ice in winter, most upper ocean measurements have been acquired in summer. We report the first multiyear time series of temperature and salinity throughout the water column, obtained with autonomous profiling floats. Seven Apex floats were deployed in 2013 on the midcontinental shelf, and six Air‐Launched Autonomous Micro Observer floats were deployed in late 2016, mostly near the ice shelf front. Between profiles, most floats were parked on the seabed to minimize lateral motion. Surface mixed layer temperatures, salinities, and depths, in winter were −1.8 °C, 34.34, and 250–500 m, respectively. Freshwater from sea ice melt in early December formed a shallow (20 m) surface mixed layer, which deepened to 50–80 m and usually warmed to above −0.5 °C by late January. Upper‐ocean freshening continued throughout the summer, especially in the eastern Ross Sea and along the ice shelf front. This freshening requires substantial lateral advection that is dominated by inflow from melting of sea ice and ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea and by inputs from the Ross Ice Shelf. Changes in upper‐ocean freshwater and heat content along the ice shelf front in summer affect cross‐ice front advection, ice shelf melting, and calving processes that determine the rate of mass loss from the grounded Antarctic Ice Sheet in this sector.

Description: Since 1990, the IPCC has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs) including agriculture. Using a database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs, our conclusions are that crop yields decline but with large statistical variation. Livestock effects have almost been quantitatively absent. Mitigation assessments need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security; agriculture has been dealt with inconsistently between the IPCC five ARs. IPCC needs to examine interactions between crop resource use efficiencies and include production and nonproduction aspects of food security. Abstract Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.

Description: Abstract Natural attenuation is very often the remediation method of necessity, rather than choice, for beach environments impacted by offshore exploration/drilling accidents. Robust methods that can be efficiently utilized in difficult to access and ecologically sensitive areas are needed for the long‐term monitoring of such degradation processes. A prime candidate for such a monitoring tool is the spectral induced polarization (SIP) method, a geophysical technique successfully used for characterization and monitoring of hydrocarbon degradation in freshwater environments. In this laboratory experiment the SIP method successfully monitored the natural degradation of beach sediments impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Using the SIP, we were able to differentiate between biotic (e.g., microbial driven) and abiotic (e.g., dilution) degradation processes and infer degradation rates. To our knowledge this is the first effort to use the SIP method as a monitoring aid in high salinity environments.

Description: A mechanism for seismicity induced by fluid injection operations is pore pressure increase via a diffusional process (left). This leads to a reduction in the effective normal stress on preexisting faults; allowing frictional resistance to fault sliding to be overcome. This mechanism requires a high permeable pathway from the fluid injection point to the preexisting fault. Even in the circumstances when injection fluids may be hydraulically isolated from any preexisting faults, the fault may be activated through perturbations in the stress field brought about by changes in volume or mass loading transmitted to the fault poroelastically (right: hydraulic fracturing example). Shale gas could help address the insatiable global demand for energy. However, in addition to risks of environmental pollution, the risk of induced seismicity during the hydraulic fracturing process is often considered as the major showstopper in the public acceptability of shale gas as an alternative source of fossil fuel. Other types of subsurface energy development have also demonstrated similar induced seismicity risks. This article presents an interdisciplinary review of notable cases of suspected induced seismicity relating to subsurface energy operations, covering operations for hydraulic fracturing, wastewater injection, conventional gas extraction, enhanced geothermal systems and water impoundment. Possible causal mechanisms of induced seismicity are described and illustrated, then methods to mitigate induced seismicity, encompassing regulations, including so‐called traffic light systems, monitoring and assessment, and numerical modeling approaches for predicting the occurrence of induced seismicity are outlined. Issues relating to public perception of energy technologies in regards to induced seismicity potential are also discussed. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics 〉 Climate and Environment Fossil Fuels 〉 Climate and Environment Energy Infrastructure 〉 Economics and Policy Energy and Development 〉 Systems and Infrastructure