Publication Date:
2014-04-15
Description:
Temperature-index models are widely favoured as a pragmatic means of simulating glacier melt due to their generally good performance, computational simplicity, and limited demands for in-situ data. However, their coefficients are normally treated as temporally stationary, unrealistically assuming a constancy of the prevailing weather. We address this simplification by prescribing model coefficients as a function of synoptic weather type, in a procedure that utilizes reanalysis data and preserves the minimal data requirements of temperature-index models. Using a cross-validation procedure at Vestari Hagafellsjökull, Iceland, and Storglaciären, Sweden, we demonstrate that applying transient model coefficients, for three temperature-index models, results in statistically-significant increases in the skill with which melt is modelled: median simulation improvements in the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient of 7.3% and 23.6% are achieved when hourly and daily melt totals are evaluated, respectively. Our weather-type modelling approach also yields insight to processes driving parameter variability, revealing dependencies which are consistent with a priori considerations of the surface energy balance (SEB). We conclude that incorporating weather types into temperature-index models holds promise for improving their performance, as well as enhancing understanding variability in coefficient values. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Print ISSN:
0885-6087
Electronic ISSN:
1099-1085
Topics:
Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
,
Geography
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