ALBERT

Description: This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations.

Description: Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to inter-model variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21 st -century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011–2035) and mid-century (2036–2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

Description: The drivers of background tree mortality rates – the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought – are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-year period in a network of permanent forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the “ambient” or “random” background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly-growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from one another. Finally, beyond the current emphasis on folivory and leaf defenses, studies of broad-scale gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions should also include biotic attacks on, and defenses of, tree stems and roots. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: ABSTRACT This study considers long-term precipitation and temperature variability across the Caribbean using two gridded data sets (CRU TS 3.21 and GPCCv5). We look at trends across four different regions (Northern, Eastern, Southern and Western), for three different seasons (May to July, August to October and November to April) and for three different periods (1901–2012, 1951–2012 and 1979–2012). There are no century-long trends in precipitation in either data set, although all regions (with the exception of the Northern Caribbean) show decade-long periods of wetter or drier conditions. The most significant of these is for the Southern Caribbean region which was wetter than the 1961–1990 average from 1940 to 1956 and then drier from 1957 to 1965. Temperature in contrast shows statistically significant warming everywhere for the periods 1901–2012, 1951–2012 and for over half the area during 1979–2012. Data availability is a limiting issue over much of the region and we also discuss the reliability of the series we use in the context of what is known to be available in the CRU TS 3.21 data set. More station data have been collected but have either not been fully digitized yet or not made freely available both within and beyond the region.

Description: Temperature and current measurements from two moorings onshore of the Celtic Sea shelf break, a well-known hot-spot for tidal energy conversion, show the impact of passing summer storms on the baroclinic wave field. Wind-driven vertical mixing changed stratification to permit an increased on-shelf energy transport, and baroclinic energy in the semidiurnal band appeared at the moorings 1–4 days after the storm mixed the upper 50 m of the water column. The timing of the maximum in the baroclinic energy flux is consistent with the propagation of the semidiurnal internal tide from generation sites at the shelf break to the moorings 40 km away. Also, the ~3 day duration of the peak in M 2 baroclinic energy flux at the moorings corresponds to the restratification time scale following the first storm.

Description: This study investigates whether or not predictability always decreases for more extreme events. Predictability is measured by the Mean Squared Error (MSE), estimated here from the difference of pairs of ensemble forecasts, conditioned on one of the forecast variables (the “pseudo-observation”) exceeding a threshold. Using an exchangeable linear regression model for pairs of forecast variables, we show that the MSE can be decomposed into the sum of three terms: a threshold-independent constant, a mean term that always increases with threshold, and a variance term that can either increase, decrease, or stay constant with threshold. Using the Generalised Pareto Distribution to model wind speed excesses over a threshold, we show that MSE always increases with threshold at sufficiently high threshold. However, MSE can be a decreasing function of threshold at lower thresholds but only if the forecasts have finite upper bounds. The methods are illustrated by application to daily wind speed forecasts for London made using the 24 member Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System from 1 Jan 2009 to 31 May 2011. For this example, the mean term increases faster than the variance term decreases with increasing threshold, and so predictability decreases for more extreme events.

Description: Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study has explored the impacts of these biases on multi-model uncertainty in CMIP5 ensemble projections of 21 st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the RCP8.5 future scenario (2070–2099) and historical (1970–1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g. cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71 and −0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica.

Description: Extreme wave events in coastal zones are principal drivers of geomorphic change. Evidence of boulder entrainment and erosional impact during storms is increasing. However, there is currently poor time coupling between pre- and post-storm measurements of coastal boulder deposits. Importantly there are no data reporting shore platform erosion, boulder entrainment and/or boulder transport during storm events – rock coast dynamics during storm events are currently unexplored. Here, we use high-resolution (daily) field data to measure and characterise coastal boulder transport before, during and after the extreme Northeast Atlantic extra-tropical cyclone Johanna in March 2008. Forty-eight limestone fine-medium boulders (n = 46) and coarse cobbles (n = 2) were tracked daily over a 0.1 km 2 intertidal area during this multi-day storm. Boulders were repeatedly entrained, transported and deposited, and in some cases broken down (n = 1) or quarried (n = 3), during the most intense days of the storm. Eighty-one percent (n = 39) of boulders were located at both the start and end of the storm. Of these, 92% were entrained where entrainment patterns were closely aligned to wave parameters. These data firmly demonstrate rock coasts are dynamic and vulnerable under storm conditions. No statistically significant relationship was found between boulder size (mass) and net transport distance. Graphical analyses suggest that boulder size limits the maximum longshore transport distance but that for the majority of boulders lying under this threshold, other factors influence transport distance. Paired analysis of 20 similar sized and shaped boulders in different morphogenic zones demonstrates that geomorphological control affects entrainment and transport distance – where net transport distances were up to 39 times less where geomorphological control was greatest. These results have important implications for understanding and for accurately measuring and modelling boulder entrainment and transport. Coastal managers require these data for assessing erosion risk.

Description: Abstract Organic‐rich mudstones have long been of interest as conventional and unconventional source rocks and are an important organic carbon sink. Yet the processes that deposited organic‐rich muds in epicontinental seaways are poorly understood, partly because few modern analogues exist. This study investigates the processes that transported and deposited sediment and organic matter through part of the Bowland Shale Formation, from the Mississippian Rheic–Tethys seaway. Field to micron‐scale sedimentological analysis reveals a heterogeneous succession of carbonate‐rich, siliceous, and siliciclastic, argillaceous muds. Deposition of these facies at basinal and slope locations was moderated by progradation of the nearby Pendle delta system, fourth‐order eustatic sea‐level fluctuation and localized block‐and‐basin tectonism. Marine transgressions deposited bioclastic ‘marine band' (hemi)pelagic packages. These include abundant euhaline macrofaunal tests, and phosphatic concretions of organic matter and radiolarian tests interpreted as faecal pellets sourced from a productive water column. Lens‐rich (lenticular) mudstones, hybrid, debrite and turbidite beds successively overlie marine band packages and suggest reducing basin accommodation promoted sediment deposition via laminar and hybrid flows sourced from the basin margins. Mud lenses in lenticular mudstones lack organic linings and bioclasts and are equant in early‐cemented lenses and in plan‐view and are largest and most abundant in mudstones overlying marine band packages. Thus, lenses likely represent partially consolidated mud clasts that were scoured and transported in bedload from the shelf or proximal slope, as a ‘shelf to basin' conveyor, during periods of reduced basin accommodation. Candidate in situ microbial mats in strongly lenticular mudstones, and as rip‐up fragments in the down‐dip hybrid beds, suggest that these were potentially key biostabilizers of mud. Deltaic mud export was fast, despite the intrabasinal complexity, likely an order of magnitude higher than similar successions deposited in North America. Epicontinental basins remotely linked to delta systems were therefore capable of rapidly accumulating both sediment and organic matter. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.