Publication Date:
2019
Description:
Abstract
Whether the final properties of large earthquakes can be inferred from initial observations of rupture (deterministic rupture) is valuable for understanding earthquake source processes, and is critical for operational earthquake and tsunami early warning. Initial (P‐wave) characteristics of small to moderate earthquakes scale with magnitude, yet observations of large to great earthquakes saturate, resulting in magnitude underestimation. Whether that saturation is inherent to earthquake dynamics, or rather is due to unreliable observation of long‐period signals with inertial seismic instrumentation is unclear. Seismogeodetic methods are better suited for broadband observation of large events in the near‐field. In this study, we investigate the deterministic potential of seismogeodetically‐derived P‐wave amplitude using a dataset of 14 medium‐to‐great earthquakes around Japan. Our results indicate that seismogeodetic P‐wave amplitude is not a reliable predictor of magnitude, opposing the notion of strong determinism in the first few seconds of rupture.
Print ISSN:
0094-8276
Electronic ISSN:
1944-8007
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
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