Publication Date:
2022-05-25
Description:
Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of obser- vations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal corre- lates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.
Description:
Published
Description:
775-785
Description:
3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
restricted
Keywords:
Decadal prediction Atlantic MOC Predictability Multi-model comparison
;
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
;
03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
;
03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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