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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-05-05
    Description: We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 2
  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Mw = 9.1 mega-thrust Sumatra–Andaman earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2004, was followed by a devastating tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people and caused catastrophic effects on human settlements and environments along many coasts of the Indian Ocean, where even countries very far from the source were affected. One of these cases is represented by the Republic of Seychelles, where the tsunami reached the region about 7 h after the earthquake and produced relevant damages, despite the country was more than 4,500 km far from the seismic source. In the present work, we present and discuss a study of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami by means of numerical simulations with the attention focused on the effects observed at the Seychelles Archipelago, a region never previously investigated with this approach. The case is interesting since these islands lay on a very shallow oceanic platform with steep slopes so as the ocean depth changes from thousands to few tens of meters over short distances, with significant effects on the tsunami propagation features: the waves are strongly refracted by the oceanic platform and the tsunami signal is modified by the introduction of additional frequencies. The study is used also to validate the UBO-TSUFD numerical code on a real tsunami event in the far field, and the results are compared with the available observations, i.e., the sea level time series recorded at the Pointe La Rue station, Mahe ́ Island, and run-up measurements and inundation lines surveyed few weeks after the tsunami at Praslin Island, where the tsunami hit during low tide. Synthetic results are found in good agreement with observations, even though some of the observations remain not fully solved. Moreover, simulations have been run in high-tide condition since the 2004 Sumatra tsunami hitting at high tide can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the Seychelles islands and used for tsunami hazard and risk assessments
    Description: Published
    Description: 1507–1525
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tsunami; Numerical modeling; Indian Ocean; Tsunami scenarios ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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