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  • 1
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    Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current (2012)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-05-01
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 2
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    Future Projections of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting Based on CMIP5 Scenarios (2018)
    AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 31(13), pp. 5243-5261, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
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    Effects of Stochastic Ice Strength Perturbation on Arctic Finite Element Sea Ice Modeling (2013)
    AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 26(11), pp. 3785-3802, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: The ice strength parameter P* is a key parameter in dynamic/thermodynamic sea ice models that cannot be measured directly. Stochastically perturbing P* in the Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) of the Alfred Wegener Institute aims at investigating the effect of uncertainty pertaining to this parameterization. Three different approaches using symmetric perturbations have been applied: 1) reassignment of uncorrelated noise fields to perturb P* at every grid point, 2) a Markov chain time correlation, and 3) a Markov chain time correlation with some spatial correlation between nodes. Despite symmetric perturbations, results show an increase of Arctic sea ice volume and a decrease of Arctic sea ice area for all three approaches. In particular, the introduction of spatial correlation leads to a substantial increase in sea ice volume and mean thickness. The strongest response can be seen for multiyear ice north of the Greenland coast. An ensemble of eight perturbed simulations generates a spread in the multiyear ice comparable to the interannual variability of the model. Results cannot be reproduced by a simple constant global modification of P*.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    Subsurface warming in the Antarctica’s Weddell Sea can be avoided by reaching the 2∘C warming target (2024)
    Springer Nature
    In:  EPIC3Communications Earth & Environment, Springer Nature, 5(1), pp. 93-93, ISSN: 2662-4435
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: Recently, seasonal pulses of modified Warm Deep Water have been observed near the Filchner Ice Shelf front in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Here, we investigate the temperature evolution of subsurface waters in the Filchner Trough under four future scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions using the climate model AWI-CM. Our model simulates these warm intrusions, suggests more frequent pulses in a warmer climate, and supports the potential for a regime shift from cold to warm Filchner Trough in two high-emission scenarios. The regime shift is governed in particular by decreasing local sea ice formation and a shoaling thermocline. Cavity circulation is not critical in triggering the change. Consequences would include increased ice shelf basal melting, reduced buttressing of fast-flowing ice streams, loss of grounded ice and an acceleration of global sea level rise. According to our simulations, the regime shift can be avoided and the Filchner Trough warming can be restricted to 0.5 ∘C by reaching the 2 ∘C climate goal.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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