ISSN:
1573-045X
Schlagwort(e):
Connecticut home sales
;
forecasting
;
coincident index
;
leading index
;
BVAR
Quelle:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Thema:
Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Notizen:
Abstract We develop a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model (BVAR) to forecast home sales in Connecticut. In addition to home prices and mortgage interest rates, we also include measures of current and future economic conditions to see if these variables provide useful information with which to forecast Connecticut home sales. The best performing model incorporates recently developed coincident and leading employment indexes for Connecticut. These composite indexes perform markedly better than the inclusion of individual variables such as the unemployment rate or housing permits authorized.
Materialart:
Digitale Medien
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00217392
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