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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © NATO Undersea Research Centre, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of NATO Undersea Research Centre for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 69 (2008): 86-98, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.02.015.
    Description: Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72 h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches.
    Description: Funded by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
    Keywords: Forecast ; Surface drift ; Multi-model super-ensembles ; Linear regression ; Ocean models ; Atmospheric models ; Wave models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Continental Shelf Research 52 (2013): 73-86, doi:10.1016/j.csr.2012.10.012.
    Description: Waves and currents create bottom shear stress, a force at the seabed that influences sediment texture distribution, micro-topography, habitat, and anthropogenic use. This paper presents a methodology for assessing the magnitude, variability, and driving mechanisms of bottom stress and resultant sediment mobility on regional scales using numerical model output. The analysis was applied to the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), off the U.S. East Coast, and identified a tidally-dominated shallow region with relatively high stress southeast of Massachusetts over Nantucket Shoals, where sediment mobility thresholds are exceeded over 50% of the time; a coastal band extending offshore to about 30 m water depth dominated by waves, where mobility occurs more than 20% of the time; and a quiescent low stress region southeast of Long Island, approximately coincident with an area of fine-grained sediments called the “Mud Patch”. The regional high in stress and mobility over Nantucket Shoals supports the hypothesis that fine grain sediment winnowed away in this region maintains the Mud Patch to the southwest. The analysis identified waves as the driving mechanism for stress throughout most of the MAB, excluding Nantucket Shoals and sheltered coastal bays where tides dominate; however, the relative dominance of low-frequency events varied regionally, and increased southward toward Cape Hatteras. The correlation between wave stress and local wind stress was lowest in the central MAB, indicating a relatively high contribution of swell to bottom stress in this area, rather than locally generated waves. Accurate prediction of the wave energy spectrum was critical to produce good estimates of bottom shear stress, which was sensitive to energy in the long period waves.
    Description: P.S. Dalyander was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall Research Fellowship Program.
    Keywords: Bottom stress ; Wave stress ; Current stress ; Sea floor disturbance ; Middle Atlantic Bight
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 39 (2016): 311-332, doi:10.1007/s12237-015-0011-y.
    Description: Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.
    Description: NKG, ALA, and RPS acknowledge support from the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program. DKR gratefully acknowledges support from NSF (OCE-1314642) and NIEHS (1P50-ES021923-01). MJB and JMPV gratefully acknowledge support from NOAA NOS NCCOS (NA05NOS4781201 and NA11NOS4780043). MJB and SJL gratefully acknowledge support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program—Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (RC-1413 and RC-2245).
    Keywords: Numerical modeling ; Hydrodynamics ; Ecological modeling ; Ecosystem modeling ; Skill assessment
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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