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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2011-10-01
    Description: Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to model the strong ground motion for three earthquakes: 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge, 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 Mw 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined model uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of model epistemic uncertainty, based on the different model predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined model uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2011-06-01
    Description: Two separate inversions are performed using the ground-motion data from the 2008 Mount Carmel, Illinois, earthquake. One uses aftershocks as empirical Green's functions to determine a finite-fault slip distribution. The second uses mainshock ground-motion spectra to calculate source, path, and site response parameters. The slip inversion reveals a prominent asperity at the hypocenter with an area of approximately 6 km2, moment of [IMG]/medium/951eq1.gif" ALT="Formula "〉 (Mw 5.20), and stress drop of about 100 bars. Considering all major and minor slip, the total moment is [IMG]/medium/951eq2.gif" ALT="Formula "〉 (Mw=5.45). The rupture velocity is not resolvable due to the small source area. After fixing the geometric spreading, the source, path, and site parameter inversion yields a similar moment of [IMG]/medium/951eq3.gif" ALT="Formula "〉 (Mw 5.26) and a corner frequency of 0.89 Hz, which also give a stress drop of approximately 100 bars. Our combined geometric and anelastic attenuation function, Q(f)r-b=1137f0.12r-0.94, fits the regional spectral amplitudes, where the data is more plentiful, as well as previously derived attenuation relationships. Site response spectra show prominent resonant frequencies that correlate with the thickness of Mississippi River sediments and Mississippi embayment deposits. In addition, higher frequency resonance peaks are observed that most likely represent higher mode resonances and resonances from shallower structure.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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