ALBERT

Description: Shear-wave velocity ( V S ) and time-averaged shear-wave velocity to 30 m depth ( V S 30 ) are the key parameters used in seismic site response modeling and earthquake engineering design. Where V S data are limited, available data are often used to develop and refine map-based proxy models of V S 30 for predicting ground-motion intensities. In this paper, we present shallow V S data from 27 sites in Puerto Rico. These data were acquired using a multimethod acquisition approach consisting of noninvasive, collocated, active-source body-wave (refraction/reflection), active-source surface wave at nine sites, and passive-source surface-wave refraction microtremor (ReMi) techniques. V S -versus-depth models are constructed and used to calculate spectral response plots for each site. Factors affecting method reliability are analyzed with respect to site-specific differences in bedrock V S and spectral response. At many but not all sites, body- and surface-wave methods generally determine similar depths to bedrock, and it is the difference in bedrock V S that influences site amplification. The predicted resonant frequencies for the majority of the sites are observed to be within a relatively narrow bandwidth of 1–3.5 Hz. For a first-order comparison of peak frequency position, predictive spectral response plots from eight sites are plotted along with seismograph instrument spectra derived from the time series of the 16 May 2010 Puerto Rico earthquake. We show how a multimethod acquisition approach using collocated arrays compliments and corroborates V S results, thus adding confidence that reliable site characterization information has been obtained.

Description: Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) topography reveals for the first time the trace of the Rodgers Creek fault (RCF) through the center of Santa Rosa, the largest city in the northern San Francisco Bay area. Vertical deformation of the Santa Rosa Creek floodplain expresses a composite pull-apart basin beneath the urban cover that is part of a broader 1-km-wide right-releasing bend in the fault. High-resolution geophysical data illuminate subsurface conditions that may be responsible for the complex pattern of surface faulting, as well as for the distribution of seismicity and possibly for creep behavior. We identify a dense, magnetic basement body bounded by the RCF beneath Santa Rosa that we interpret as a strong asperity, likely part of a larger locked patch of the fault to the south. A local increase in frictional resistance associated with the basement body appears to explain (1) distributed fault-normal extension above where the RCF intersects the body; (2) earthquake activity around the northern end of the body, notably the 1969 M L  5.6 and 5.7 events and aftershocks; and (3) creep rates on the RCF that are higher to the north of Santa Rosa than to the south. There is a significant probability of a major earthquake on the RCF in the coming decades, and earthquakes associated with the proposed asperity have the potential to release seismic energy into the Cotati basin beneath Santa Rosa, already known from damaging historical earthquakes to produce amplified ground shaking.

Description: Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) topography reveals for the first time the trace of the Rodgers Creek fault (RCF) through the center of Santa Rosa, the largest city in the northern San Francisco Bay area. Vertical deformation of the Santa Rosa Creek floodplain expresses a composite pull-apart basin beneath the urban cover that is part of a broader 1-km-wide right-releasing bend in the fault. High-resolution geophysical data illuminate subsurface conditions that may be responsible for the complex pattern of surface faulting, as well as for the distribution of seismicity and possibly for creep behavior. We identify a dense, magnetic basement body bounded by the RCF beneath Santa Rosa that we interpret as a strong asperity, likely part of a larger locked patch of the fault to the south. A local increase in frictional resistance associated with the basement body appears to explain (1) distributed fault-normal extension above where the RCF intersects the body; (2) earthquake activity around the northern end of the body, notably the 1969 M L  5.6 and 5.7 events and aftershocks; and (3) creep rates on the RCF that are higher to the north of Santa Rosa than to the south. There is a significant probability of a major earthquake on the RCF in the coming decades, and earthquakes associated with the proposed asperity have the potential to release seismic energy into the Cotati basin beneath Santa Rosa, already known from damaging historical earthquakes to produce amplified ground shaking.

Description: We have developed a new three-dimensional seismic velocity model of the central United States (CUSVM) that includes the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) and covers parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The model represents a compilation of decades of crustal research consisting of seismic, aeromagnetic, and gravity profiles; geologic mapping; geophysical and geological borehole logs; and inversions of the regional seismic properties. The density, P - and S -wave velocities are synthesized in a stand-alone spatial database that can be queried to generate the required input for numerical seismic-wave propagation simulations. We test and calibrate the CUSVM by simulating ground motions of the 18 April 2008 M w  5.4 Mt. Carmel, Illinois, earthquake and comparing the results with observed records within the model area. The selected stations in the comparisons reflect different geological site conditions and cover distances ranging from 10 to 430 km from the epicenter. The results, based on a qualitative and quantitative goodness-of-fit (GOF) characterization, indicate that both within and outside the Mississippi Embayment the CUSVM reasonably reproduces: (1) the body and surface-wave arrival times and (2) the observed regional variations in ground-motion amplitude, cumulative energy, duration, and frequency content up to a frequency of 1.0 Hz. In addition, we discuss the probable structural causes for the ground-motion patterns in the central United States that we observed in the recorded motions of the 18 April Mt. Carmel earthquake. Online Material: Simulated and observed waveforms, and response spectral acceleration ground-motion prediction equation comparison.

Description: We collected new high-resolution P -wave seismic-reflection data to explore for possible faults beneath a roughly linear cluster of early to mid-Holocene earthquake-induced sand blows to the south of Marianna, Arkansas. The Daytona Beach sand blow deposits are located in east-central Arkansas about 75 km southwest of Memphis, Tennessee, and about 80 km south of the southwestern end of the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). Previous studies of these sand blows indicate that they were produced between 10,500 and 5350 yr B.P. (before A.D. 1950). The sand blows are large and similar in size to those in the heart of the NMSZ produced by the 1811–1812 earthquakes. The seismic-reflection profiles reveal a previously unknown zone of near-vertical faults imaged in the 100–1100-m depth range that are approximately coincident with a cluster of earthquake-induced sand blows and a near-linear surface lineament composed of air photo tonal anomalies. These interpreted faults are expressed as vertical discontinuities with the largest displacement fault showing about 40 m of west-side-up displacement at the top of the Paleozoic section at about 1100 m depth. There are about 20 m of folding on reflections within the Eocene strata at 400 m depth. Increasing fault displacement with depth suggests long-term recurrent faulting. The imaged faults within the vicinity of the numerous sand blow features could be a causative earthquake source, although it does not rule out the possibility of other seismic sources nearby. These newly located faults add to a growing list of potentially active Pleistocene–Holocene faults discovered over the last two decades that are within the Mississippi embayment region but outside of the historical NMSZ.

Description: We produce a one-year 2017 seismic-hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one-year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic-hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude ( M ) ≥4 and 3 M ≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M ≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M ≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground-shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Description: We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near-surface shear-wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent-linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm-rock-site condition, the new probabilistic seismic-hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess-covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground-motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground-motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground-motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40-m-thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground-motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground-motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic ground-shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (〈40% of area expected to liquefy) in the uplands to severe (〉60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated ground deformation.

Description: We performed a suite of numerical simulations based on the 1811–1812 New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) earthquakes, which demonstrate the importance of 3D geologic structure and rupture directivity on the ground-motion response throughout a broad region of the central United States (CUS) for these events. Our simulation set consists of 20 hypothetical earthquakes located along two faults associated with the current seismicity trends in the NMSZ. The hypothetical scenarios range in magnitude from M  7.0 to 7.7 and consider various epicenters, slip distributions, and rupture characterization approaches. The low-frequency component of our simulations was computed deterministically up to a frequency of 1 Hz using a regional 3D seismic velocity model and was combined with higher-frequency motions calculated for a 1D medium to generate broadband synthetics (0–40 Hz in some cases). For strike-slip earthquakes located on the southwest–northeast-striking NMSZ axial arm of seismicity, our simulations show 2–10 s period energy channeling along the trend of the Reelfoot rift and focusing strong shaking northeast toward Paducah, Kentucky, and Evansville, Indiana, and southwest toward Little Rock, Arkansas. These waveguide effects are further accentuated by rupture directivity such that an event with a western epicenter creates strong amplification toward the northeast, whereas an eastern epicenter creates strong amplification toward the southwest. These effects are not as prevalent for simulations on the reverse-mechanism Reelfoot fault, and large peak ground velocities (〉40 cm/s) are typically confined to the near-source region along the up-dip projection of the fault. Nonetheless, these basin response and rupture directivity effects have a significant impact on the pattern and level of the estimated intensities, which leads to additional uncertainty not previously considered in magnitude estimates of the 1811–1812 sequence based only on historical reports. The region covered by our simulation domain encompasses a large portion of the CUS centered on the NMSZ, including several major metropolitan areas. Based on our simulations, more than eight million people living and working near the NMSZ would experience potentially damaging ground motion and modified Mercalli intensities ranging from VI to VIII if a repeat of the 1811–1812 earthquakes occurred today. Moreover, the duration of strong ground shaking in the greater Memphis metropolitan area could last from 30 to more than 60 s, depending on the magnitude and epicenter. Online Material: Tables of 1D velocity models used to generate the high-frequency synthetics, and figures of source models and peak ground motion synthetics.