ALBERT

Description: Although the time-averaged shear-wave velocity down to 30 m depth ( V S 30 ) can be a proxy for estimating earthquake ground-motion amplification, significant controversy exists about its limitations when used as a single parameter for the prediction of amplification. To examine this question in absence of relevant strong-motion records, we use a range of different methods to measure the shear-wave velocity profiles and the resulting theoretical site amplification factors (AFs) for 30 sites in the Newcastle area, Australia, in a series of blind comparison studies. The multimethod approach used here combines past seismic cone penetrometer and spectral analysis of surface-wave data, with newly acquired horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio, passive-source surface-wave spatial autocorrelation (SPAC), refraction microtremor (ReMi), and multichannel analysis of surface-wave data. The various measurement techniques predicted a range of different AFs. The SPAC and ReMi techniques have the smallest overall deviation from the median AF for the majority of sites. We show that V S 30 can be related to spectral response above a period T of 0.5 s but not necessarily with the maximum amplification according to the modeling done based on the measured shear-wave velocity profiles. Both V S 30 and AF values are influenced by the velocity ratio between bedrock and overlying sediments and the presence of surficial thin low-velocity layers (〈2 m thick and 〈150 m/s), but the velocity ratio is what mostly affects the AF. At 0.2〈 T 〈0.4 s, the AFs are largely controlled by the surficial geology of a particular site. AF maxima are the highest in the hard classes, which is the inverse of the findings used in the Australian Building Code. Only for T 〉0.5 s do the amplification curves consistently show higher values for soft site classes and lower for hard classes.

Description: In 2001, a rare swarm of small, shallow earthquakes beneath the city of Spokane, Washington, caused ground shaking as well as audible booms over a five-month period. Subsequent Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data analysis revealed an area of surface uplift in the vicinity of the earthquake swarm. To investigate the potential faults that may have caused both the earthquakes and the topographic uplift, we collected ~3 km of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles to image the upper-source region of the swarm. The two profiles reveal a complex deformational pattern within Quaternary alluvial, fluvial, and flood deposits, underlain by Tertiary basalts and basin sediments. At least 100 m of arching on a basalt surface in the upper 500 m is interpreted from both the seismic profiles and magnetic modeling. Two west-dipping faults deform Quaternary sediments and project to the surface near the location of the Spokane fault defined from modeling of the InSAR data.

Description: Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to inter-model variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21 st -century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011–2035) and mid-century (2036–2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉ABSTRACT〈/div〉Characterizing earthquake ground motions through 3D simulations is becoming standard practice for seismic hazard assessment in urbanized regions. However, accurate ground‐motion predictions require shear‐wave velocity (VS) data at depths that capture the extent of the sedimentary column (usually greater than 30 m), which can be difficult to obtain. We acquired microtremor array data at 11 sites in the Seattle basin, Washington, and applied the wavenumber‐normalized spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) method (krSPAC) to obtain VS at depths as great as 2200 m. In a traditional SPAC approach, modeling high wavenumbers within the SPAC spectrum requires array symmetry. By contrast, in the krSPAC approach we transform observed coherency versus frequency spectra to coherency versus kr (in which k and r are wavenumber and station separation, respectively) prior to VS modeling. Through this transformation, the requirement for array symmetry is eased. We deployed seven‐sensor nested irregular triangular arrays, with nominal interstation spacings that varied from about 300 to 2000 m. Comparison of VS derived from krSPAC to a previous interpretation from ambient‐noise tomography studies suggests a broadly comparable VS structure in the 250–1000 m depth range with improved resolution at shallower depth. At each site, we interpret a high‐velocity Quaternary boundary in which VS increases above 900  m/s. Using this boundary as the reference horizon, we calculate ground‐motion amplification of a factor of up to 2 from the overlying Quaternary sediments between 0.3 and 7 Hz, assuming vertically propagating 〈span〉S〈/span〉 waves.〈/span〉

Description: We collected new high-resolution P -wave seismic-reflection data to explore for possible faults beneath a roughly linear cluster of early to mid-Holocene earthquake-induced sand blows to the south of Marianna, Arkansas. The Daytona Beach sand blow deposits are located in east-central Arkansas about 75 km southwest of Memphis, Tennessee, and about 80 km south of the southwestern end of the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). Previous studies of these sand blows indicate that they were produced between 10,500 and 5350 yr B.P. (before A.D. 1950). The sand blows are large and similar in size to those in the heart of the NMSZ produced by the 1811–1812 earthquakes. The seismic-reflection profiles reveal a previously unknown zone of near-vertical faults imaged in the 100–1100-m depth range that are approximately coincident with a cluster of earthquake-induced sand blows and a near-linear surface lineament composed of air photo tonal anomalies. These interpreted faults are expressed as vertical discontinuities with the largest displacement fault showing about 40 m of west-side-up displacement at the top of the Paleozoic section at about 1100 m depth. There are about 20 m of folding on reflections within the Eocene strata at 400 m depth. Increasing fault displacement with depth suggests long-term recurrent faulting. The imaged faults within the vicinity of the numerous sand blow features could be a causative earthquake source, although it does not rule out the possibility of other seismic sources nearby. These newly located faults add to a growing list of potentially active Pleistocene–Holocene faults discovered over the last two decades that are within the Mississippi embayment region but outside of the historical NMSZ.

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉ABSTRACT〈/div〉Characterizing earthquake ground motions through 3D simulations is becoming standard practice for seismic hazard assessment in urbanized regions. However, accurate ground‐motion predictions require shear‐wave velocity (VS) data at depths that capture the extent of the sedimentary column (usually greater than 30 m), which can be difficult to obtain. We acquired microtremor array data at 11 sites in the Seattle basin, Washington, and applied the wavenumber‐normalized spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) method (krSPAC) to obtain VS at depths as great as 2200 m. In a traditional SPAC approach, modeling high wavenumbers within the SPAC spectrum requires array symmetry. By contrast, in the krSPAC approach we transform observed coherency versus frequency spectra to coherency versus kr (in which k and r are wavenumber and station separation, respectively) prior to VS modeling. Through this transformation, the requirement for array symmetry is eased. We deployed seven‐sensor nested irregular triangular arrays, with nominal interstation spacings that varied from about 300 to 2000 m. Comparison of VS derived from krSPAC to a previous interpretation from ambient‐noise tomography studies suggests a broadly comparable VS structure in the 250–1000 m depth range with improved resolution at shallower depth. At each site, we interpret a high‐velocity Quaternary boundary in which VS increases above 900  m/s. Using this boundary as the reference horizon, we calculate ground‐motion amplification of a factor of up to 2 from the overlying Quaternary sediments between 0.3 and 7 Hz, assuming vertically propagating 〈span〉S〈/span〉 waves.〈/span〉

Description: Previous investigators have argued that the northwest-striking Reelfoot fault of northwest Tennessee and southeastern Missouri is segmented. One segment boundary is at the intersection of the northeast-striking Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely strike-slip faults with the Reelfoot fault. We use seismic reflection and geologic mapping to locate and determine the history of the Reelfoot South fault across this boundary zone. One reflection profile revealed a southwest-dipping (81°) Reelfoot South reverse fault that displaces the top of the Paleozoic 65 m, Cretaceous 40 m, Paleocene 31 m, Eocene Wilcox Group 20 m, and Eocene Memphis Sand 16 m. A second reflection profile reveals a north-dipping (84°) reverse fault 4.3 km south of the Reelfoot South fault, which defines the southwest margin of the Tiptonville dome. A geologic profile of the base of the ~3.1 Ma Upland complex (Mississippi River terrace alluvium) within the Mississippi River bluffs reveals ~6 m of displacement across the Reelfoot South fault. Similarly, Quaternary stream terrace distribution suggests ~6 m of Reelfoot South hanging-wall (Tiptonville dome) uplift that is probably Holocene. Fault strike trends show the Reelfoot fault and its hanging-wall Tiptonville dome are not laterally offset across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults. The Reelfoot South fault northwest and southeast of the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults has very similar vertical displacement on common stratigraphic marker horizons in the upper 900 m. These data indicate the Reelfoot fault/Tiptonville dome has acted as one continuous fault zone across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults since Late Cretaceous.

Description: For climate services to be relevant and informative for users, scientific data definitions need to match users’ perceptions or beliefs. This study proposes and tests novel yet simple methods to compare beliefs of timing of recurrent climatic events with empirical evidence from multiple historical time series. The methods are tested by applying them to the onset date of the monsoon in Bangladesh, where several scientific monsoon definitions can be applied, yielding different results for monsoon onset dates. It is a challenge to know which monsoon definition compares best with people’s beliefs. Time series from eight different scientific monsoon definitions in six regions are compared with respondent beliefs from a previously completed survey concerning the monsoon onset. Beliefs about the timing of the monsoon onset are represented probabilistically for each respondent by constructing a probability mass function (PMF) from elicited responses about the earliest, normal, and latest dates for the event. A three-parameter circular modified triangular distribution (CMTD) is used to allow for the possibility (albeit small) of the onset at any time of the year. These distributions are then compared to the historical time series using two approaches: likelihood scores, and the mean and standard deviation of time series of dates simulated from each belief distribution. The methods proposed give the basis for further iterative discussion with decision-makers in the development of eventual climate services. This study uses Jessore, Bangladesh, as an example and finds that a rainfall definition, applying a 10 mm day−1 threshold to NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (Reanalyis-1) data, best matches the survey respondents’ beliefs about monsoon onset.