ALBERT

Beschreibung: We introduce the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project with its aim of better understanding the physical processes leading to warm screen-temperature biases over the American Midwest in many numerical models. In this first of four companion papers, 11 different models, from 9 institutes, perform a series of 5-day hindcasts, each initialised from reanalyses. After describing the common experimental protocol and detailing each model configuration, a gridded temperature data set is derived from observations and used to show that all the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Additionally, a strong diurnal cycle in the screen-temperature bias is found in most models. In some models the bias is largest around midday, while in others it is largest during the night. At the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, the model biases are shown to extend several kilometers into the atmosphere. Finally, to provide context for the companion papers, in which observations from the SGP site are used to evaluate the different processes contributing to errors there, it is shown that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP. This suggests that conclusions drawn from detailed evaluation of models using instruments located at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a larger spatial scale.

Beschreibung: Locating sources of diffusion and spreading from minimum data is a significant problem in network science with great applied values to the society. However, a general theoretical framework dealing with optimal source localization is lacking. Combining the controllability theory for complex networks and compressive sensing, we develop a framework with high efficiency and robustness for optimal source localization in arbitrary weighted networks with arbitrary distribution of sources. We offer a minimum output analysis to quantify the source locatability through a minimal number of messenger nodes that produce sufficient measurement for fully locating the sources. When the minimum messenger nodes are discerned, the problem of optimal source localization becomes one of sparse signal reconstruction, which can be solved using compressive sensing. Application of our framework to model and empirical networks demonstrates that sources in homogeneous and denser networks are more readily to be located. A surprising finding is that, for a connected undirected network with random link weights and weak noise, a single messenger node is sufficient for locating any number of sources. The framework deepens our understanding of the network source localization problem and offers efficient tools with broad applications.

Beschreibung: Many numerical weather prediction and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the mid-latitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in 9 model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the ARM SGP site. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although non-negligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud-radiative effects dominate in the cloud-related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud, but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud-radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

Beschreibung: Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T 2m ) biases over mid-latitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multi-model intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to the T 2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach during the spring and summer of 2011. Observations are mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites. The present study examines the contributions of surface energy budget errors. All participating models simulate too much net shortwave and longwave fluxes at the surface but with no consistent mean bias sign in turbulent fluxes over the Central U.S. and SGP. Nevertheless, biases in the net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes, as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are contributors to T 2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF bias is largely affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation based upon the surface energy budget is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T 2m bias. Our analysis ascribes that a large EF underestimate is the dominant source of error in all models with a large positive temperature bias, whereas an EF overestimate compensates for an excess of absorbed shortwave radiation in nearly all the models with the smallest temperature bias.

Beschreibung: Solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdyn) enhancements have been observed to cause large-scale auroral brightening. The mechanism for this kind of auroral brightening is still a topic of current space research. Using the global piecewise parabolic method Lagrangian remap (PPMLR)-MHD simulation model, we investigate three auroral brightening events caused by dynamic pressure enhancement under different interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions: (1) Bz 〈 0 and By 〉 0 on 11 August 2000, (2) Bz 〈 0 and By 〈 0 on 8 May 2001, and (3) Bz ≥ 0 on 21 January 2005. We show that the auroral location depends on the IMF conditions. Under southward IMF conditions, when By is negative, the duskside aurora is located more equatorward at around 70° magnetic latitude (MLAT) for all magnetic local times; when By is positive, the duskside aurora can even reach beyond 80° MLAT. A smaller and more localized response is seen when the IMF Bz is nearly zero or northward, as shown in previous studies. Our simulation results are consistent with these observations, indicating that the observed aurora activities could be caused by solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements. The simulation results suggest that the enhancement of Pdyn can increase the ionospheric transpolar potential and the corresponding field-aligned currents, leading to the observed auroral brightening.

Beschreibung: We examine the effects of the ionospheric conductance on the intensification of the westward electrojet current in the ionosphere based on the piecewise parabolic method with a Lagrangian remap (PPMLR) global MHD simulation model. The ionospheric conductance is empirically linked to the plasma pressure in the plasma sheet. The simulation results are consistent with observations: When the Pedersen and Hall conductances are small, the ionospheric current shows a two-cell pattern; when the conductances increase and the ratio ΣH/ΣP ≥ 2, an intense westward electrojet appears in the midnight sector. This intense westward electrojet is the Cowling current driven by the induced southward electric field due to the blockage of the northward Hall current from closure in the equatorial plasma sheet. The simulation shows the development of the Cowling electrojet is essential to the intensification of the westward electrojet in the ionosphere.

Beschreibung: Lower Cretaceous pedogenic carbonates exposed in SE China have been dated by U–Pb isotope measurements on single zircons taken from intercalated volcanic rocks, and the ages integrated with existing stratigraphy. 13 C values of calcretes range from –7.0 to –3.0 and can be grouped into five episodes of increasing–decreasing values. The carbon isotope proxy derived from these palaeosol carbonates suggests p CO 2 mostly in the range 1000–2000 parts per million by volume (ppmV) at S ( z ) (CO 2 contributed by soil respiration) = 2500 ppmV and 25°C during the Hauterivian–Albian interval ( c . 30 Ma duration). Such atmospheric CO 2 levels are 4–8 times pre-industrial values, almost double those estimated by geochemical modelling and much higher than those established from stomatal indices in fossil plants. Rapid rises in p CO 2 are identified for early Hauterivian, middle Barremian, late Aptian, early Albian and middle Albian time, and rapid falls for intervening periods. These episodic cyclic changes in p CO 2 are not attributed to local tectonism and volcanism but rather to global changes. The relationship between reconstructed p CO 2 and the development of large igneous provinces (LIPs) remains unclear, although large-scale extrusion of basalt may well be responsible for relatively high atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas. Suggested levels of relatively low p CO 2 correspond in timing to intervals of regional to global enrichment of marine carbon in sediments and negative carbon isotope ( 13 C) excursions characteristic of the oceanic anoxic events OAE1a (Selli Event), Kilian and Paquier events (constituting part of the OAE 1b cluster) and OAE1d. Short-term episodes of high p CO 2 coincide with negligible carbon isotope excursions associated with the Faraoni Event and the Jacob Event. Given that episodes of regional organic carbon burial would draw down CO 2 and negative 13 C excursions indicate the addition of isotopically light carbon to the ocean–atmosphere system, controls on the carbon cycle in controlling p CO 2 during Early Cretaceous time were clearly complex and made more so by atmospheric composition also being affected by changes in silicate weathering intensity.

Beschreibung: In this work, two kinds of partial least squares modelling methods are applied to predict a compressor map: one uses a power function polynomial as the basis function (PLSO), and the other uses a trigonometric function polynomial (PLSN). To demonstrate the potential capabilities of PLSO and PLSN for a typical interpolated prediction and an extrapolated prediction, they are compared with two other classical data-driven modelling methods, namely the look-up table and artificial neural network (ANN). PLSO and PLSN are also compared with each other. The results show that PLSO and PLSN have a better prediction performance than the look-up table and the ANN, especially for the extrapolated prediction. The computational time is also decreased sharply. Compared with PLSO, PLSN is characterized by a higher prediction accuracy and shorter computational time than PLSO. It is expected that PLSN could save computational time and also improve the accuracy of a thermodynamic model of a diesel engine.

Beschreibung: This paper studies the dramatic decadal increase of Taiwan rainfall in the typhoon exit phase. The exit phase is defined as the time interval when a typhoon center leaves the Taiwan coast to 100 km away from the nearest coastline. Typhoons move across Taiwan through its northern (track N), central (track C), or southern (track S) part are selected for a statistical study. Taiwan hourly rainfall data of 21 surface gauge stations from the past 57 years are divided into two periods: 1960-1989 (P1) and 1987-2016 (P2). From P1 to P2, there are decadal increases of rainfall (~60%) and rainfall intensity (~30%, mm h -1 ) in the exit phase. There is also a decadal increase of the track-C typhoons. The southwest monsoon water vapor flux (SWF) in a local region southwest of Taiwan, as computed from the JRA-55 dataset, is substantially larger in the track-C typhoons than that in the track-N typhoons. Our analysis indicates that the increase of SWF leads to the increase of rainfall intensity. Moreover, both the enhanced SWF and the prolonged duration time contribute to the increased rainfall in the exit phase. Typhoon Morakot (2009), a track-C typhoon with extremely slow speed in the exit phase, produced the record-breaking rainfall. Model experiments and potential vorticity tendency diagnosis of Typhoon Morakot are used to understand the dynamics of increased duration time. The slowdown of typhoon motion is shown to be due to the asymmetric convection in the Taiwan Strait, which is produced by the interaction between typhoon circulation and southwest monsoon flow. The enhanced SWF and the prolonged duration time may explain the observed fact that the decadal rainfall increase is much larger than that of rainfall intensity in the exit phase.

Beschreibung: Aimed at the problem of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) performance evaluation and optimal EGR rate determination of turbocharged diesel engines, an optimized decision-making method, based on grey theory and entropy weight, was proposed. The internal combustion pressure, fuel consumption rate, NO X , CO and smoke were selected as the decision-making targets and the initial decision-making model was established based on the traditional grey decision-making theory. According to the characteristics and optimization requirements of EGR, the optimal compromise between combustion and emission performance is proposed to transform into decision-making target weighting problem, then an optimized subjective weighting method based on expert scoring and grey relational analysis is proposed. Finally, the entropy weight method was used to solve the objective weight and the optimized multi-objective grey decision-making model was established, which can not only weaken the human error of subjective empowerment, but also fully explore the intrinsic relationship of the evaluation indexes. At last, an optimization simulation platform for EGR performance evaluation based on MATLB/GUIDE was designed and established. The results show that the optimization simulation platform can effectively improve the efficiency of simulation calculation, which is more convenient for practical engineering applications. The optimized method can successfully realize EGR performance evaluation and optimal EGR rate determination under different working conditions. The decision-making result was consistent with the present EGR control strategies, which provide a new research idea for EGR performance optimization.