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  • 1
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    Fossil fuels in a trillion tonne world (2015)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Climate Change, 5 (5). pp. 419-423.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-12-19
    Description: The useful energy services and energy density value of fossil carbon fuels could be retained for longer timescales into the future if their combustion is balanced by CO2 recapture and storage. We assess the global balance between fossil carbon supply and the sufficiency (size) and capability (technology, security) of candidate carbon stores. A hierarchy of value for extraction-to-storage pairings is proposed, which is augmented by classification of CO2 containment as temporary (〈1,000 yr) or permanent (〉100,000 yr). Using temporary stores is inefficient and defers an intergenerational problem. Permanent storage capacity is adequate to technically match current fossil fuel reserves. However, rates of storage creation cannot balance current and expected rates of fossil fuel extraction and CO2 consequences. Extraction of conventional natural gas is uniquely holistic because it creates the capacity to re-inject an equivalent tonnage of carbon for storage into the same reservoir and can re-use gas-extraction infrastructure for storage. By contrast, balancing the extraction of coal, oil, biomass and unconventional fossil fuels requires the engineering and validation of additional carbon storage. Such storage is, so far, unproven in sufficiency.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    Nitrogen cycling driven by organic matter export in the South Pacific oxygen minimum zone (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Geoscience, 6 (3). pp. 228-234.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Oxygen minimum zones are expanding globally, and at present account for around 20–40% of oceanic nitrogen loss. Heterotrophic denitrification and anammox—anaerobic ammonium oxidation with nitrite—are responsible for most nitrogen loss in these low-oxygen waters. Anammox is particularly significant in the eastern tropical South Pacific, one of the largest oxygen minimum zones globally. However, the factors that regulate anammox-driven nitrogen loss have remained unclear. Here, we present a comprehensive nitrogen budget for the eastern tropical South Pacific oxygen minimum zone, using measurements of nutrient concentrations, experimentally determined rates of nitrogen transformation and a numerical model of export production. Anammox was the dominant mode of nitrogen loss at the time of sampling. Rates of anammox, and related nitrogen transformations, were greatest in the productive shelf waters, and tailed off with distance from the coast. Within the shelf region, anammox activity peaked in both upper and bottom waters. Overall, rates of nitrogen transformation, including anammox, were strongly correlated with the export of organic matter. We suggest that the sinking of organic matter, and thus the release of ammonium into the water column, together with benthic ammonium release, fuel nitrogen loss from oxygen minimum zones.
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  • 3
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    Eddy-induced enhancement of primary production in a model of the north Atlantic Ocean (1998)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 394 . pp. 266-269.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-27
    Description: In steady state, the export of photosynthetically fixed organic matter to the deep ocean has to be balanced by an upward flux of nutrients into the euphotic zone1. Indirect geochemical estimates2 of the nutrient supply to surface waters have been substantially higher than direct biological and physical measurements3, particularly in subtropical regions. A possible explanation for the apparent discrepancy is that the sampling strategy of the direct measurements has under-represented episodic nutrient injections forced by mesoscale eddy dynamics, whereas geochemical tracer budgets integrate fluxes over longer time and space scales. Here we investigate the eddy-induced nutrient supply by combining two methods potentially capable of delivering synoptic descriptions of the ocean's state on a basin scale. Remotely sensed sea-surface height data from the simultaneous TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 satellite missions are assimilated into a numerical eddy-resolving coupled ecosystem–circulation model of the North Atlantic Ocean. Our results indicate that mesoscale eddy activity accounts for about one-third of the total flux of nitrate into the euphotic zone (taken to represent new production) in the subtropics and at mid-latitudes. This contribution is not sufficient to maintain the observed primary production in parts of the subtropical gyre, where alternative routes of nitrogen supply will have to be considered.
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  • 4
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    Processes and patterns of oceanic nutrient limitation (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Geoscience, 6 (9). pp. 701-710.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-02-20
    Description: Microbial activity is a fundamental component of oceanic nutrient cycles. Photosynthetic microbes, collectively termed phytoplankton, are responsible for the vast majority of primary production in marine waters. The availability of nutrients in the upper ocean frequently limits the activity and abundance of these organisms. Experimental data have revealed two broad regimes of phytoplankton nutrient limitation in the modern upper ocean. Nitrogen availability tends to limit productivity throughout much of the surface low-latitude ocean, where the supply of nutrients from the subsurface is relatively slow. In contrast, iron often limits productivity where subsurface nutrient supply is enhanced, including within the main oceanic upwelling regions of the Southern Ocean and the eastern equatorial Pacific. Phosphorus, vitamins and micronutrients other than iron may also (co-)limit marine phytoplankton. The spatial patterns and importance of co-limitation, however, remain unclear. Variability in the stoichiometries of nutrient supply and biological demand are key determinants of oceanic nutrient limitation. Deciphering the mechanisms that underpin this variability, and the consequences for marine microbes, will be a challenge. But such knowledge will be crucial for accurately predicting the consequences of ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to oceanic nutrient biogeochemistry.
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  • 5
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    Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high CO2-emissions scenario (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Communications, 5 (3304).
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce CO2 emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. We use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization, and solar radiation management during a high CO2-emissions scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (〈8%) warming reductions, or they have severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited.
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  • 6
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    Enhanced biological carbon consumption in a high CO2 ocean (2007)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 450 (7169). pp. 545-548.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The oceans have absorbed nearly half of the fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere since pre-industrial times1, causing a measurable reduction in seawater pH and carbonate saturation2. If CO2 emissions continue to rise at current rates, upper-ocean pH will decrease to levels lower than have existed for tens of millions of years and, critically, at a rate of change 100 times greater than at any time over this period3. Recent studies have shown effects of ocean acidification on a variety of marine life forms, in particular calcifying organisms4, 5, 6. Consequences at the community to ecosystem level, in contrast, are largely unknown. Here we show that dissolved inorganic carbon consumption of a natural plankton community maintained in mesocosm enclosures at initial CO2 partial pressures of 350, 700 and 1,050 μatm increases with rising CO2. The community consumed up to 39% more dissolved inorganic carbon at increased CO2 partial pressures compared to present levels, whereas nutrient uptake remained the same. The stoichiometry of carbon to nitrogen drawdown increased from 6.0 at low CO2 to 8.0 at high CO2, thus exceeding the Redfield carbon:nitrogen ratio of 6.6 in today’s ocean7. This excess carbon consumption was associated with higher loss of organic carbon from the upper layer of the stratified mesocosms. If applicable to the natural environment, the observed responses have implications for a variety of marine biological and biogeochemical processes, and underscore the importance of biologically driven feedbacks in the ocean to global change.
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