ALBERT

Description: Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP) was described in 1987 in the context of estimating fundamental parameters that arise in nuclear interaction experiments. In PPP, generalized least squares (GLS) parameter estimates fell outside the range of the data, which has raised concerns that GLS is somehow flawed and has led to suggested alternatives to GLS estimators. However, there have been no corresponding performance comparisons among methods, and one suggested approach involving simulated data realizations is statistically incomplete. Here we provide performance comparisons among estimators, introduce approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) using density estimation applied to simulated data realizations to produce an alternative to the incomplete approach, complete the incompletely specified approach, and show that estimation error in the assumed covariance matrix cannot always be ignored.

Description: Pattern recognition uses measurements from an input domain, X, to predict their labels from an output domain, Y. Image analysis is one setting where one might want to infer whether a pixel patch contains an object that is “manmade” (such as a building) or “natural” (such as a tree). Suppose the label for a pixel patch is “manmade”; if the label for a nearby pixel patch is then more likely to be “manmade” there is structure in the output domain that can be exploited to improve pattern recognition performance. Modeling P(X) is difficult because features between parts of the model are often correlated. Therefore, conditional random fields (CRFs) model structured data using the conditional distribution P(Y|X = x), without specifying a model for P(X), and are well suited for applications with dependent features. This paper has two parts. First, we overview CRFs and their application to pattern recognition in structured problems. Our primary examples are image analysis applications in which there is dependence among samples (pixel patches) in the output domain. Second, we identify research topics and present numerical examples.

Description: This research analyzes the relationships between off-highway vehicle (OHV) riders’ patterns of prior experience and the social-psychological benefits they desire from the activity; it also examines the relationships between patterns of prior experience and environmental attitudes. The sample consists of 600 OHV riders in Utah drawn from the entire population of OHV owners within the state. The sample was segmented into experience use history groups based upon respondents’ number of OHV trips within the past 12 months and the total number of years they have been riding OHVs. Results show that patterns of prior experience are related to certain desired social-psychological benefits. Personal achievement benefits were significantly more important for more frequent riders when compared to those who rode less often. The analysis also reveals no relationship between patterns of prior experience and general environmental attitudes.

Description: Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP) was described in 1987 in the context of estimating fundamental parameters that arise in nuclear interaction experiments. In PPP, generalized least squares (GLS) parameter estimates fell outside the range of the data, which has raised concerns that GLS is somehow flawed and has led to suggested alternatives to GLS estimators. However, there have been no corresponding performance comparisons among methods, and one suggested approach involving simulated data realizations is statistically incomplete. Here we provide performance comparisons among estimators, introduce approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) using density estimation applied to simulated data realizations to produce an alternative to the incomplete approach, complete the incompletely specified approach, and show that estimation error in the assumed covariance matrix cannot always be ignored.

Description: Generalized least squares (GLS) for model parameter estimation has a long and successful history dating to its development by Gauss in 1795. Alternatives can outperform GLS in some settings, and alternatives to GLS are sometimes sought when GLS exhibits curious behavior, such as in Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP). PPP was described in 1987 in the context of estimating fundamental parameters that arise in nuclear interaction experiments. In PPP, GLS estimates fell outside the range of the data, eliciting concerns that GLS was somehow flawed. These concerns have led to suggested alternatives to GLS estimators. This paper defends GLS in the PPP context, investigates when PPP can occur, illustrates when PPP can be beneficial for parameter estimation, reviews optimality properties of GLS estimators, and gives an example in which PPP does occur.

Description: This research analyzes the relationships between off-highway vehicle (OHV) riders’ patterns of prior experience and the social-psychological benefits they desire from the activity; it also examines the relationships between patterns of prior experience and environmental attitudes. The sample consists of 600 OHV riders in Utah drawn from the entire population of OHV owners within the state. The sample was segmented into experience use history groups based upon respondents’ number of OHV trips within the past 12 months and the total number of years they have been riding OHVs. Results show that patterns of prior experience are related to certain desired social-psychological benefits. Personal achievement benefits were significantly more important for more frequent riders when compared to those who rode less often. The analysis also reveals no relationship between patterns of prior experience and general environmental attitudes.

Description: Generalized least squares (GLS) for model parameter estimation has a long and successful history dating to its development by Gauss in 1795. Alternatives can outperform GLS in some settings, and alternatives to GLS are sometimes sought when GLS exhibits curious behavior, such as in Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP). PPP was described in 1987 in the context of estimating fundamental parameters that arise in nuclear interaction experiments. In PPP, GLS estimates fell outside the range of the data, eliciting concerns that GLS was somehow flawed. These concerns have led to suggested alternatives to GLS estimators. This paper defends GLS in the PPP context, investigates when PPP can occur, illustrates when PPP can be beneficial for parameter estimation, reviews optimality properties of GLS estimators, and gives an example in which PPP does occur.

Description: The performance of Radio-Isotope Identification (RIID) algorithms using NaI-based γ spectroscopy is increasingly important. For example, sensors at locations that screen for illicit nuclear material rely on isotope identification using NaI detectors to distinguish innocent nuisance alarms, arising from naturally occurring radioactive material, from alarms arising from threat isotopes. Recent data collections for RIID testing consist of repeat measurements for each of several measurement scenarios to test RIID algorithms. It is anticipated that vendors can modify their algorithms on the basis of performance on chosen measurement scenarios and then test modified algorithms on data for other measurement scenarios. It is therefore timely to review the current status of RIID algorithms on NaI detectors. This review describes γ spectra from NaI detectors, measurement issues and challenges, current RIID algorithms, data preprocessing steps, the role and current quality of synthetic spectra, and opportunities for improvements.

Description: The aim of nuclear safeguards is to ensure that special nuclear material is used for peaceful purposes. Historically, nuclear material accounting (NMA) has provided the quantitative basis for monitoring for nuclear material loss or diversion, and process monitoring (PM) data is collected by the operator to monitor the process. PM data typically support NMA in various ways, often by providing a basis to estimate some of the in-process nuclear material inventory. We develop options for combining PM residuals and NMA residuals (residual = measurement − prediction), using a hybrid of period-driven and data-driven hypothesis testing. The modified statistical tests can be used on time series of NMA residuals (the NMA residual is the familiar material balance), or on a combination of PM and NMA residuals. The PM residuals can be generated on a fixed time schedule or as events occur.

Description: IJERPH, Vol. 15, Pages 2029: The Oakville Oil Refinery Closure and Its Influence on Local Hospitalizations: A Natural Experiment on Sulfur Dioxide International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health doi: 10.3390/ijerph15092029 Authors: Wesley S. Burr Robert Dales Ling Liu Dave Stieb Marc Smith-Doiron Branka Jovic Lisa Marie Kauri Hwashin Hyun Shin Background: An oil refinery in Oakville, Canada, closed over 2004–2005, providing an opportunity for a natural experiment to examine the effects on oil refinery-related air pollution and residents’ health. Methods: Environmental and health data were collected for the 16 years around the refinery closure. Toronto (2.5 million persons) and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA, 6.3 million persons) were used as control and reference populations, respectively, for Oakville (160,000 persons). We compared sulfur dioxide and age- and season-standardized hospitalizations, considering potential factors such as changes in demographics, socio-economics, drug prescriptions, and environmental variables. Results: The closure of the refinery eliminated 6000 tons/year of SO2 emissions, with an observed reduction of 20% in wind direction-adjusted ambient concentrations in Oakville. After accounting for trends, a decrease in cold-season peak-centered respiratory hospitalizations was observed for Oakville (reduction of 2.2 cases/1000 persons per year, p = 0.0006 ) but not in Toronto (p = 0.856) and the GTA (p = 0.334). The reduction of respiratory hospitalizations in Oakville post closure appeared to have no observed link to known confounders or effect modifiers. Conclusion: The refinery closure allowed an assessment of the change in community health. This natural experiment provides evidence that a reduction in emissions was associated with improvements in population health. This study design addresses the impact of a removed source of air pollution.