ALBERT

Description: In this study we analyzed the effects of silvicultural treatments on carbon (C) budgets in Pinus taeda L. (loblolly pine) plantations in the southeastern United States. We developed a hybrid model that integrated a widely used growth and yield model for loblolly pine with published allometric and biometric equations to simulate in situ C pools. The model used current values of forest product conversion efficiencies and forest product decay rates to calculate ex situ C pools. Using the model to evaluate the effects of silvicultural management systems on C sequestration over a 200 year simulation period, we concluded that site productivity (site quality), which can be altered by silviculture and genetic improvement, was the major factor controlling stand C density. On low productivity sites, average net C stocks were about 35% lower than in stands with the default average site quality; in contrast, on high quality sites, C stocks were about 38% greater than average productivity stands. If woody products were incorporated into the accounting, thinning was C positive because of the larger positive effects on ex situ C storage, rather than smaller reductions on in situ C storage. The use of biological rotation age (18 years) was not suitable for C sequestration, and extended rotation ages were found to increase stand C stock density. Stands with an 18-year-rotation length had 7% lower net C density than stands with a 22-year-rotation length; stands with a 35-year-rotation length had only 4% more C than stands harvested at age 22 years. The C sequestered in woody products was an important pool of C storage, accounting for ~34% of the average net C stock. Changes in decomposition rate, associated with possible environmental changes resulting from global climate change, affected C storage capacity of the forest. When decay rate was reduced to 10% or increased to 20%, the C stock in the dead pool (forest floor and coarse woody debris) was reduced about 11.8 MgC∙ha−1 or increased about 13.3 MgC∙ha−1, respectively, compared to the average decay rate of 15%. The C emissions due to silvicultural and harvest activities were small (~1.6% of the gross C stock) compared to the magnitude of total stand C stock. The C model, based on empirical and biological relationships, appears appropriate for use in regional C stock assessments for loblolly pine plantation ecosystems in the southern U.S.

Description: In this study we analyzed the effects of silvicultural treatments on carbon (C) budgets in Pinus taeda L. (loblolly pine) plantations in the southeastern United States. We developed a hybrid model that integrated a widely used growth and yield model for loblolly pine with published allometric and biometric equations to simulate in situ C pools. The model used current values of forest product conversion efficiencies and forest product decay rates to calculate ex situ C pools. Using the model to evaluate the effects of silvicultural management systems on C sequestration over a 200 year simulation period, we concluded that site productivity (site quality), which can be altered by silviculture and genetic improvement, was the major factor controlling stand C density. On low productivity sites, average net C stocks were about 35% lower than in stands with the default average site quality; in contrast, on high quality sites, C stocks were about 38% greater than average productivity stands. If woody products were incorporated into the accounting, thinning was C positive because of the larger positive effects on ex situ C storage, rather than smaller reductions on in situ C storage. The use of biological rotation age (18 years) was not suitable for C sequestration, and extended rotation ages were found to increase stand C stock density. Stands with an 18-year-rotation length had 7% lower net C density than stands with a 22-year-rotation length; stands with a 35-year-rotation length had only 4% more C than stands harvested at age 22 years. The C sequestered in woody products was an important pool of C storage, accounting for ~34% of the average net C stock. Changes in decomposition rate, associated with possible environmental changes resulting from global climate change, affected C storage capacity of the forest. When decay rate was reduced to 10% or increased to 20%, the C stock in the dead pool (forest floor and coarse woody debris) was reduced about 11.8 MgC∙ha−1 or increased about 13.3 MgC∙ha−1, respectively, compared to the average decay rate of 15%. The C emissions due to silvicultural and harvest activities were small (~1.6% of the gross C stock) compared to the magnitude of total stand C stock. The C model, based on empirical and biological relationships, appears appropriate for use in regional C stock assessments for loblolly pine plantation ecosystems in the southern U.S.

Description: The field of community sociology has yielded rich insights on how neighborhoods and individuals foster social capital and reap the benefits of interpersonal relationships and institutions alike. Traditionally, institutions and cultural factors have been lauded as catalysts of community social life and cohesion. Yet, the built environment and configuration of the landscape, including infrastructure, amenities and population density, may also contribute to community social capital. In this article, we embedded zip code-level responses from Harvard University’s Saguaro Seminar’s 2006 Social Capital Community Benchmark Survey with a geographic information system. Specifically, we correlated responses on residents’ general trust, trust of one’s neighbors, and trust of members of other racial groups with local urban environmental factors and infrastructural indicators such as housing and street conditions, land use, city form, amenity access (e.g., libraries and schools), home vacancy rates, and home value. We conducted these tests at the national level and for Rochester, NY, due to its many survey responses. We found that housing vacancies drive down levels of social trust, as captured by homeownership rates and tenure, yielding higher levels of social trust, and that certain urban facilities correlate with high trust among neighbors. Results can inform urban planners on the amenities that support sustainable community ties.

Description: Ensemble streamflow prediction systems are emerging in the international scientific community in order to better assess hydrologic threats. Two ensemble streamflow prediction systems (ESPSs) were set up at Météo-France using ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System for the first one, and from the Prévision d’Ensemble Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (PEARP) ensemble prediction system of Météo-France for the second. This paper presents the evaluation of their capacities to better anticipate severe hydrological events and more generally to estimate the quality of both ESPSs on their globality. The two ensemble predictions were used as input for the same hydrometeorological model. The skills of both ensemble streamflow prediction systems were evaluated over all of France for the precipitation input and streamflow prediction during a 569-day period and for a 2-day short-range scale. The ensemble streamflow prediction system based on the PEARP data was the best for floods and small basins, and the ensemble streamflow prediction system based on the ECMWF data seemed the best adapted for low flows and large basins.

Description: To determine the physical processes involved in the melting and disappearance of transient snow cover in nonglacierized tropical areas, the CROCUS snow model, interactions between Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model, and coupled ISBA/CROCUS model have been applied to a full set of meteorological data recorded at 4795 m MSL on a moraine area in Bolivia (16°17′S, 68°32′W) between 14 May 2002 and 15 July 2003. The models have been adapted to tropical conditions, in particular the high level of incident solar radiation throughout the year. As long as a suitable function is included to represent the mosaic partitioning of the surface between snow cover and bare ground and local fresh snow grain type (as graupel) is adapted, the ISBA and ISBA/CROCUS models can accurately simulate snow behavior over nonglacierized natural surfaces in the Tropics. Incident solar radiation is responsible for efficient melting of the snow surface (favored by fresh snow albedo values usually not exceeding 0.8) and also for the energy stored in snow-free areas (albedo = 0.18) and transferred horizontally to adjacent snow patches. These horizontal energy transfers (by conduction within the upper soil layers and by turbulent advection) explain most of the snowmelt and prevent the snow cover from lasting more than a few days during the wet season in this high-altitude tropical environment.

Description: The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will provide free water surface elevations, slopes, and river widths for rivers wider than 50 m. Models must be prepared to use this new finescale information by explicitly simulating the link between runoff and the river channel hydraulics. This study assesses one regional hydrometeorological model’s ability to simulate river depths. The Garonne catchment in southwestern France (56 000 km2) has been chosen for the availability of operational gauges in the river network and finescale hydraulic models over two reaches of the river. Several routing schemes, ranging from the simple Muskingum method to time-variable parameter kinematic and diffusive waves schemes, are tested. The results show that the variable flow velocity schemes are advantageous for discharge computations when compared to the original Muskingum routing method. Additionally, comparisons between river depth computations and in situ observations in the downstream Garonne River led to root-mean-square errors of 50–60 cm in the improved Muskingum method and 40–50 cm in the kinematic–diffusive wave method. The results also highlight SWOT’s potential to improve the characterization of hydrological processes for subbasins larger than 10 000 km2, the importance of an accurate digital elevation model, and the need for spatially varying hydraulic parameters.

Description: Innovative coupling between the soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) and the hydrological model TOPMODEL has been specifically designed for flash-flood forecasting in the Mediterranean area. The coupled model described in this study combines the advantages of the two types of model: the accurate representation of water and energy transfer between the soil and the atmosphere within the SVAT column and an explicit representation of the lateral transfer of water over the hydrological catchment unit. Another advantage of this coupling is that the number of parameters to be calibrated is reduced by two, as only two parameters instead of four parameters concern the TOPMODEL formulation used here. The parameters to be calibrated concern only the water transfer. The model was calibrated for the simulation of flash-flood events on the three main watersheds covering the French Cévennes–Vivarais region using a subset of past flash-flood events having occurred since 2000. The complementary subset of flash-flood events was then used to carry out an objective verification of the coupled model after calibration. The evaluation on these six independent past flash-flood events shows satisfactory results. The comparison of the observed and simulated hydrographs demonstrates that no flash-flood peaks are missed. Relevant information for flash-flood forecasting can always be inferred from the simulations, even for those with quite poor results, making the system useful for real-time and operational flash-flood forecasting.

Description: To develop a decision-making tool for road management in winter, a numerical model resulting from the coupling of a soil model and a snow model was developed and validated using experimental results from a comprehensive experimental field campaign during three winters (1997/98, 1998/99, and 1999/2000). The coupling of the models has been done through an implicit calculation of the conduction flux between snow and road. An equivalent thermal resistance has been used to take into account the different road–snow interface configurations. For this purpose, a parameterization of water-saturated snow was introduced. This model permits the simulation of the snow behavior on a road, and it takes into account different interfacial configurations according to snow and road types and the snowpack evolution (freezing, melting, grain type). Comparisons of experimental and simulated results for typical snowfall events or over the entire winter showed that the model was able to simulate road surface temperature, snow occurrence on the road, and snow-layer evolution with good accuracy.