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Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems : The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments; Parts 1 and 2 (2015)

American Society of Agronomy ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Hillel, Daniel

London : Imperial College Press

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Keywords: climate change ; agriculture

Description / Table of Contents: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science (Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W Jones, Jerry L Hatfield, John M Antle, Alexander C Ruane, and Carolyn Z Mutter) --- AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation (John M Antle, Roberto O Valdivia, Kenneth J Boote, Sander Janssen, James W Jones, Cheryl H Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, and Peter J Thorburn) --- AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment (Alexander C Ruane, Jonathan M Winter, Sonali P McDermid, and Nicholas I Hudson) --- Cropping Systems Modeling in AgMIP: A New Protocol-Driven Approach for Regional Integrated Assessments (Peter J Thorburn, Kenneth J Boote, John N G Hargreaves, Perry L Poulton, and James W Jones) --- Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation (Roberto O Valdivia, John M Antle, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, Joost Vervoort, Muhammad Ashfaq, Ibrahima Hathie, Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Richard Mulwa, Charles Nhemachena, Paramasivam Ponnusamy, Herath Rasnayaka, and Harbir Singh) --- Data Interoperability Tools for Regional Integrated Assessments (Cheryl H Porter, Chris Villalobos, Dean Holzworth, Roger Nelson, Jefffrey W White, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, Meng Zhang, Sander Janssen, Rob Knapen, James W Jones, Kenneth J Boote, John Hargreaves, and John M Antle) --- The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) (Joshua Elliott and Christoph Müller) --- The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols (Sonali P McDermid, Alexander C Ruane, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Nicholas I Hudson, Monica D Morales, Prabodha Agalawatte, Shakeel Ahmad, L R Ahuja, Istiqlal Amien, Saseendran S Anapalli, Jakarat Anothai, Senthold Asseng, Jody Biggs, Federico Bert, Patrick Bertuzzi, Virender S Bhatia, Marco Bindi, Ian Broad, Davide Cammarano, Ramiro Carretero, Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha, Uran Chung, Stephanie Debats, Paola Deligios, Giacomo De Sanctis, Thanda Dhliwayo, Benjamin Dumont, Lyndon Estes, Frank Ewert, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Guillermo Garcia, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Vellingiri Geethalakshmi, Edward Gerardeaux, Richard Goldberg, Brian Grant, Edgardo Guevara, Jonathan Hickman, Holger Hoffmann, Huanping Huang, Jamshad Hussain, Flavio Barbosa Justino, Asha S Karunaratne, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Patrice K Kouakou, Soora Naresh Kumar, Arunachalam Lakshmanan, Mark Lieffering, Xiaomao Lin, Qunying Luo, Graciela Magrin, Marco Mancini, Fabio Ricardo Marin, Anna Dalla Marta, Yuji Masutomi, Theodoros Mavromatis, Greg McLean, Santiago Meira, Monoranjan Mohanty, Marco Moriondo, Wajid Nasim, Lamyaa Negm, Francesca Orlando, Simone Orlandini, Isik Ozturk, Helena Maria Soares Pinto, Guillermo Podesta, Zhiming Qi, Johanna Ramarohetra, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Helene Raynal, Gabriel Rodriguez, Reimund Rötter, Vaishali Sharda, Lu Shuo, Ward Smith, Val Snow, Afshin Soltani, K Srinivas, Benjamin Sultan, Dillip Kumar Swain, Fulu Tao, Kindie Tesfaye, Maria I Travasso, Giacomo Trombi, Alex Topaj, Eline Vanuytrecht, Federico E Viscarra, Syed Aftab Wajid, Enli Wang, Hong Wang, Jing Wang, Erandika Wijekoon, Lee Byun-Woo, Yang Xiaoguang, Ban Ho Young, Jin I Yun, Zhigan Zhao, and Lareef Zubair) --- Uncertainty in Agricultural Impact Assessment (Daniel Wallach, Linda O Mearns, Michael Rivington, John M Antle, and Alexander C Ruane) --- Uncertainties in Scaling-Up Crop Models for Large-Area Climate Change Impact Assessments (Frank Ewert, Lenny G J van Bussel, Gang Zhao, Holger Hoffmann, Thomas Gaiser, Xenia Specka, Claas Nendel, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Carmen Sosa, Elisabet Lewan, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, Matthias Kuhnert, Fulu Tao, Reimund Rötter, Julie Constantin, Helene Raynal, Daniel Wallach, Edmar Teixeira, Balasz Grosz, Michaela Bach, Luca Doro, Pier Paolo Roggero, Zhigan Zhao, Enli Wang, Ralf Kiese, Edwin Haas, Henrik Eckersten, Giacomo Trombi, Marco Bindi, Christian Klein, Christian Biernath, Florian Heinlein, Eckart Priesack, Davide Cammarano, Senthold Asseng, Joshua Elliott, Michael Glotter, Bruno Basso, Guillermo A Baigorria, Consuelo C Romero, and Marco Moriondo) --- Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Change Effects (David Makowski, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Simona Bassu, Jean-Louis Durand, Pierre Martre, Myriam Adam, Pramod K Aggarwal, Carlos Angulo, Christian Baron, Bruno Basso, Patrick Bertuzzi, Christian Biernath, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J Boote, Nadine Brisson, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J Challinor, Sjakk J G Conijn, Marc Corbeels, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Jordi Doltra, Sebastian Gayler, Richard Goldberg, Patricio Grassini, Jerry L Hatfield, Lee Heng, Steven Hoek, Josh Hooker, Tony L A Hunt, Joachim Ingwersen, Cesar Izaurralde, Raymond E E Jongschaap, James W Jones, Armen R Kemanian, Christian Kersebaum, Soo-Hyung Kim, Jon Lizaso, Christoph Müller, Naresh S Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J O'Leary, Jorgen E Olesen, Tom M Osborne, Taru Palosuo, Maria V Pravia, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, Fredirico Sau, Mickhail A Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Pasquale Steduto, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Edmar I Teixeira, Peter Thorburn, Denis Timlin, Maria Travasso, Reimund Rötter, Katharina Waha, Daniel Wallach, Jeffrey W White, Jimmy R Williams, and Joost Wolf) --- Crop Diseases and Climate Change in the AgMIP Framework (Ariena H C van Bruggen, James W Jones, Jose Mauricio C Fernandes, Karen Garrett, and Kenneth J Boote) --- Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa (Job Kihara, Dilys S MacCarthy, Andre Bationo, Saidou Koala, Jonathan Hickman, Jawoo Koo, Charles Vanya, Samuel Adiku, Yacob Beletse, Patricia Masikate, Karuturi P C Rao, Carolyn Z Mutter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, and James W Jones) --- Climate Change Impacts on West African Agriculture: An Integrated Regional Assessment (CIWARA) (Samuel G K Adiku, Dilys S MacCarthy, Ibrahima Hathie, Madina Diancoumba, Bright S Freduah, Joseph Amikuzuno, P C Sibiry Traore, Seydou Traore, Eric Koomson, Alhassane Agali, Jon I Lizaso, Dougbedji Fatondji, Myriam Adams, Lodoun Tigana, Daouda Z Diarra, Ousmane N'diaye, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Systems in East Africa (Karuturi P C Rao, Gummadi Sridhar, Richard M Mulwa, Mary N Kilavi, Anthony Esilaba, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Projected Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Production of Maize in Southern Africa: An Integrated Assessment Case Study of the Bethlehem District, Central Free State, South Africa (Yacob G Beletse, Wiltrud Durand, Charles Nhemachena, Olivier Crespo, Weldemichael A Tesfuhuney, Matthew R Jones, Mogos Y Teweldemedhin, Sunshine M Gamedze, Pontsho M Bonolo, Syanda Jonas, SueWalker, Patrick Gwimbi, Thembeka N Mpuisang, Davide Cammarano, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Crop-Livestock Intensification in the Face of Climate Change: Exploring Opportunities to Reduce Risk and Increase Resilience in Southern Africa by Using an Integrated Multi-modeling Approach (Patricia Masikati, Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Katrien Descheemaeker, Olivier Crespo, Sue Walker, Christopher J Lennard, Lieven Claessens, Arthur C Gama, Sebastiao Famba, Andre F van Rooyen, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia (Sonali P McDermid, Guntuku Dileepkumar, K M Dakshina Murthy, S Nedumaran, Piara Singh, Chukka Srinivasa, B Gangwar, N Subash, Ashfaq Ahmad, Lareef Zubair, and S P Nissanka) --- Impact of Climate Change on the Rice–Wheat Cropping System of Pakistan (Ashfaq Ahmad, Muhammad Ashfaq, Ghulam Rasul, Syed Aftab Wajid, Tasneem Khaliq, Fahd Rasul, Umer Saeed, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Jamshad Hussain, Irfan Ahmad Baig, Syed Asif Ali Naqvi, Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari, Shakeel Ahmad, Wajid Naseem, Gerrit Hoogenboom, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Climate Change Assessment through Linking Crop Simulation with Economic Modeling — Results from the Indo-Gangetic Basin (Nataraja Subash, Babooji Gangwar, Harbir Singh, Guillermo Baigorria, Alok Kumar Sikka, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Farms and Farm Household Incomes in South India: A Case Study from Tamil Nadu (Paramasivam Ponnusamy, Geethalakshmi Vellingiri, Raji Reddy Danda, Lakshmanan Arunachalam, Dakshina Murthy, Sunandini Prema, Sreenivas Gade, Sonali P McDermid, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka (Lareef Zubair, Sarath P Nissanka, W M W Weerakoon, Dumindu I Herath, Asha S Karunaratne, A S M Prabodha, M B Agalawatte, Rasnayaka M Herath, S Zeenas Yahiya, B V R Punyawardene, Janan Vishwanathan, Punya Delpitiya, A Erandika N Wijekoon, Janaka Gunaratna, Sewwandhi S K Chandrasekara, P Wickramagamage, K D N Weerasinghe, Champa M Navaratne, Ruchika S Perera, Asela I Gunesekara, G M Pradeep Kumara, Daniel Wallach, Roberto O Valdivia, and Sonali P McDermid) --- AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience (Eduardo D Assad, Fábio R Marin, Roberto O Valdivia, and Cynthia Rosenzweig) --- AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The China Experience (Fulu Tao and Erda Lin) --- AgMIP Training in Multiple Crop Models and Tools (Kenneth J Boote, Cheryl H Porter, John Hargreaves, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Peter Thorburn, and Carolyn Mutter) --- Major Findings and Future Activities (Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel)

Pages: Online-Ressource (XXVII, 525 pages (part 1); XXIII, 580 pages (part 2))

ISBN: 9781783265633

URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/p970

Language: English

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Testing CERES-Wheat with Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Experiment Data: CO2 and Water Interactions (1999)

Tubiello, Francesco N. ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Kimball, Bruce A. ; [et al.]

Springer

Semigroup forum 91 (1999), S. 247-255

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ISSN: 1432-2137

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Mathematics

Notes: 2 concentration and associated climate change on crop yields. Such model predictions are largely untested in the field, for lack of experimental data. We tested the CERES-Wheat model, modified to include leaf-level photosynthesis response to elevated CO2 using field data from 2 yr of Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiments with spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Yecora Rojo) in Maricopa, AZ. Two irrigation treatments (well-watered, WW; water-deficit stressed, WS) and two atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ambient, 350 μmol mol-1, elevated, 550 μmol mol-1) were simulated. The model was evaluated using measurements of crop phenology, aboveground dry matter (DM) production, grain yield, and evapotranspiration (ET). Model calculations of crop phenology were within 2 to 3 d of observed values under WW, ambient CO2 conditions in both years. The model did not simulate the accelerated crop phenology (5-8 d at physiological maturity) observed in the WW and elevated CO2 treatments, indicating the need to include effects of increased stomatal resistance on canopy temperature. Simulations of DM and grain yield were within 10% of measured values, except for a tendency to overcalculate DM response to CO2 by 10 to 15% in Year 1 for WS treatments. The model undercalculated cumulative ET under WW conditions by 15%; model sensitivity analyses suggest that simulation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) was too low for this arid site. The model reproduced measured dynamics of CO2-water interactions. Simulated reductions in water loss due to elevated CO2 were about 4%, in agreement with measurements. The model simulated larger increases in DM production and yield due to elevated CO2 under WS than under WW conditions. In Year 1, simulated crop response to CO2 was 2% larger (measured:3%) under WS than under WW conditions; in Year 2, it was 11% larger (measured: to be further evaluated with additional experimental datasets, is an important attribute of models used to project crop yields under elevated CO2 and climate change.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/

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The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES-Wheat: A sensitivity study (1996)

Mearns, Linda O. ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Goldberg, Richard

Springer

Climatic change 32 (1996), S. 257-292

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract We investigate the effect of changes in daily and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation on yields simulated by the CERES-Wheat model at two locations in the central Great Plains. Changes in variability were effected by adjusting parameters of the Richardson daily weather generator. Two types of changes in precipitation were created: one with both intensity and frequency changed; and another with change only in persistence. In both types mean total monthly precipitation is held constant. Changes in daily (and interannual) variability of temperature result in substantial changes in the mean and variability of simulated wheat yields. With a doubling of temperature variability, large reductions in mean yield and increases in variability of yield result primarily from crop failures due to winter kill at both locations. Reduced temperature variability has little effect. Changes in daily precipitation variability also resulted in substantial changes in mean and variability of yield. Interesting interactions of the precipitation variability changes with the contrasting base climates are found at the two locations. At one site where soil moisture is not limiting, mean yield decreased and variability of yield increased with increasing precipitation variability, whereas mean yields increased at the other location, where soil moisture is limiting. Yield changes were similar for the two different types of precipitation variability change investigated. Compared to an earlier study for the same locations wherein variability changes were effected by altering observed time series, and the focus was on interannual variability, the present results for yield changes are much more substantial. This study demonstrates the importance of taking into account change in daily (and interannual) variability of climate when analyzing the effect of climate change on crop yields.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00142465

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MEAN AND VARIANCE CHANGE IN CLIMATE SCENARIOS: METHODS, AGRICULTURAL APPLICATIONS, AND MEASURES OF UNCERTAINTY (1997)

MEARNS, LINDA O. ; ROSENZWEIG, CYNTHIA ; GOLDBERG, RICHARD

Springer

Climatic change 35 (1997), S. 367-396

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract Our central goal is to determine the importance of including both mean and variability changes in climate change scenarios in an agricultural context. By adapting and applying a stochastic weather generator, we first tested the sensitivity of the CERES-Wheat model to combinations of mean and variability changes of temperature and precipitation for two locations in Kansas. With a 2°C increase in temperature with daily (and interannual) variance doubled, yields were further reduced compared to the mean only change. In contrast, the negative effects of the mean temperature increase were greatly ameliorated by variance decreased by one-half. Changes for precipitation are more complex, since change in variability naturally attends change in mean, and constraining the stochastic generator to mean change only is highly artificial. The crop model is sensitive to precipitation variance increases with increased mean and variance decreases with decreased mean. With increased mean precipitation and a further increase in variability Topeka (where wheat cropping is not very moisture limited) experiences decrease in yield after an initial increase from the 'mean change only’ case. At Goodland Kansas, a moisture-limited site where summer fallowing is practiced, yields are decreased with decreased precipitation, but are further decreased when variability is further reduced. The range of mean and variability changes to which the crop model is sensitive are within the range of changes found in regional climate modeling (RegCM) experiments for a CO2 doubling (compared to a control run experiment). We then formed two types of climate change scenarios based on the changes in climate found in the control and doubled CO2 experiments over the conterminous U. S. of RegCM: (1) one using only mean monthly changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation; and (2) another that included these mean changes plus changes in daily (and interannual) variability. The scenarios were then applied to the CERES-Wheat model at four locations (Goodland, Topeka, Des Moines, Spokane) in the United States. Contrasting model responses to the two scenarios were found at three of the four sites. At Goodland, and Des Moines mean climate change increased mean yields and decreased yield variability, but the mean plus variance climate change reduced yields to levels closer to their base (unchanged) condition. At Spokane mean climate change increased yields, which were somewhat further increased with climate variability change. Three key aspects that contribute to crop response are identified: the marginality of the current climate for crop growth, the relative size of the mean and variance changes, and timing of these changes. Indices for quantifying uncertainty in the impact assessment were developed based on the nature of the climate scenario formed, and the magnitude of difference between model and observed values of relevant climate variables.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005358130291

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A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on U.S. agriculture (1995)

Adams, Richard M. ; Fleming, Ronald A. ; Chang, Ching-Chang ; [et al.]

Springer

Climatic change 30 (1995), S. 147-167

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract This study uses recent GCM forecasts, improved plant science and water supply data and refined economic modeling capabilities to reassess the economic consequences of long-term climate change on U.S. agriculture. Changes in crop yields, crop water demand and irrigation water arising from climate change result in changes in economic welfare. Economic consequences of the three GCM scenarios are mixed; GISS and GFDL-QFlux result in aggregate economic gains, UKMO implies losses. As in previous studies, the yield enhancing effects of atmospheric CO2 are an important determinant of potential economic consequences. Inclusion of changes in world food production and associated export changes generally have a positive affect on U.S. agriculture. As with previous studies, the magnitude of economic effects estimated here are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01091839

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CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND WETLANDS IN EASTERN EUROPE: VULNERABILITY, ADAPTATION AND POLICY (1997)

KRACAUER Hartig, Ellen ; Grozev, Ognyan ; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Springer

Climatic change 36 (1997), S. 107-121

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control, pollution filtration, nutrient recycling, sediment accretion, groundwater recharge and water supply, erosion control, and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past, and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed, to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture, precautionary management options are reviewed, such as establishing buffer areas, promoting sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005304816660

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Potential CO2-induced climate effects on North American wheat-producing regions (1985)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Springer

Climatic change 7 (1985), S. 367-389

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract The environmental requirements for growth of winter, spring, and fallsown spring wheats in North America are specified and compared to temperature results from the control run of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS GCM) and observed precipitation in order to generate a simulated map of current wheat production regions. The simulation agrees substantially with the actual map of wheat-growing regions in North America. Results from a doubled CO2 run of the climate model are then used to generate wheat regions under the new climatic conditions. In the simulation, areas of production increase in North America, particularly in Canada, due to increased growing degree units (GDU). Although wheat classifications may change, major wheat regions in the United States remain the same under simulated doubled CO2 conditions. The wheat-growing region of Mexico is identified as vulnerable due to high temperature stress. Higher mean temperatures during wheat growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may increase the need for earlier-maturing, more heat-tolerant cultivars throughout North, America. The soil moisture diagnostic of the climate model is used to analyze potential water availability in the major wheat region of the Southern Great Plains.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00139053

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Wheat yield functions for analysis of land-use change in China (1999)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia ; Iglesias, Ana ; Fischer, Günther ; [et al.]

Springer

Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 115-132

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ISSN: 1573-2967

Keywords: agriculture ; land use ; wheat production ; simulation models ; China

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model, is specified and validated for eight sites in the major wheat-growing regions of China. Crop model results are then used to test the Mitscherlich-Baule and the quadratic functional forms for yield response to nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation water, temperature, and precipitation. The resulting functions are designed to be used in a linked biophysical-economic model of land-use and land-cover change in China. While both functions predict yield responses adequately, the Mitscherlich-Baule function is preferable to the quadratic function because its parameters are biologically and physically realistic. Variables explaining a significant proportion of simulated yield variance are nitrogen, irrigation water, and precipitation; temperature was a less significant component of yield variation within the range of observed year-to-year variability at the study sites. Crop model simulations with a generic soil with median characteristics of the eight sites compared to simulations with site-specific soils showed that agricultural soils in China have similar and, in general, low-to-moderate water-holding capacities and organic matter contents. The validated crop model is useful for simulating the range of conditions under which wheat is grown in China, and provides the means to estimate production functions when experimental field data are not available.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019008116251

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