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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2013-09-01
    Description: Cheung, W. W. L., Pauly, D., and Sarmiento, J. L. 2013. How to make progress in projecting climate change impacts. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1069–1074. Scientific modelling has become a crucial tool for assessing climate change impacts on marine resources. Brander et al. criticize the treatment of reliability and uncertainty of such models, with specific reference to Cheung et al. (2013, Nature Climate Change, 3: 254–258) and their projections of a decrease in maximum body size of marine fish under climate change. Here, we use the specific criticisms of Brander et al. (2013, ICES Journal of Marine Science) on Cheung et al. (2013) as examples to discuss ways to make progress in scientific modelling in marine science. We address the technical criticisms by Brander et al., then their more general comments on uncertainty. The growth of fish is controlled and limited by oxygen, as documented in a vast body of peer-reviewed literature that elaborates on a robust theory based on abundant data. The results from Cheung et al. were obtained using published, reproducible and peer-reviewed methods, and the results agree with the empirical data; the key assumptions and uncertainties of the analysis were stated. These findings can serve as a step towards improving our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. We suggest that, as in other fields of science, it is important to develop incrementally (or radically) new approaches and analyses that extend, and ultimately improve, our understanding and projections of climate change effects on marine ecosystems.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2011-04-13
    Description: Cheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., Sarmiento, J. L., and Pauly, D. 2011. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1008–1018. Previous global analyses projected shifts in species distributions and maximum fisheries catch potential across ocean basins by 2050 under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B. However, these studies did not account for the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton community structure that affect fish and invertebrate distribution and productivity. This paper uses a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model that incorporates these factors to project distribution and maximum catch potential of 120 species of exploited demersal fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic. Using projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (ESM2.1) under the SRES A1B, we project an average rate of distribution-centroid shift of 52 km decade−1 northwards and 5.1 m decade−1 deeper from 2005 to 2050. Ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content reduce growth performance, increase the rate of range shift, and lower the estimated catch potentials (10-year average of 2050 relative to 2005) by 20–30% relative to simulations without considering these factors. Consideration of phytoplankton community structure may further reduce projected catch potentials by ∼10%. These results highlight the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeochemical changes and the need to incorporate likely hypotheses of their biological and ecological effects in assessing climate change impacts.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 8438–8444, doi:10.1002/2014GL061574.
    Description: Along the continental margins, rivers and submarine groundwater supply nutrients, trace elements, and radionuclides to the coastal ocean, supporting coastal ecosystems and, increasingly, causing harmful algal blooms and eutrophication. While the global magnitude of gauged riverine water discharge is well known, the magnitude of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is poorly constrained. Using an inverse model combined with a global compilation of 228Ra observations, we show that the SGD integrated over the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans between 60°S and 70°N is (12 ± 3) × 1013 m3 yr−1, which is 3 to 4 times greater than the freshwater fluxes into the oceans by rivers. Unlike the rivers, where more than half of the total flux is discharged into the Atlantic, about 70% of SGD flows into the Indo-Pacific Oceans. We suggest that SGD is the dominant pathway for dissolved terrestrial materials to the global ocean, and this necessitates revisions for the budgets of chemical elements including carbon.
    Description: This work was supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea, through the Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology (KIMST) (20120176) and National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea (2013R1A2A1A05004343 and 2013R1A1A1058203). Charette and Moore's contributions were supported by the US National Science Foundation through the GEOTRACES project.
    Keywords: Submarine groundwater discharge ; Radium ; Inverse modeling ; Land-ocean interaction ; Brackish groundwater ; Coastal flux
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/postscript
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 45 (2018): 891–898, doi:10.1002/2017GL076045.
    Description: In this paper we study upwelling pathways and timescales of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) in a hierarchy of models using a Lagrangian particle tracking method. Lagrangian timescales of CDW upwelling decrease from 87 years to 31 years to 17 years as the ocean resolution is refined from 1° to 0.25° to 0.1°. We attribute some of the differences in timescale to the strength of the eddy fields, as demonstrated by temporally degrading high-resolution model velocity fields. Consistent with the timescale dependence, we find that an average Lagrangian particle completes 3.2 circumpolar loops in the 1° model in comparison to 0.9 loops in the 0.1° model. These differences suggest that advective timescales and thus interbasin merging of upwelling CDW may be overestimated by coarse-resolution models, potentially affecting the skill of centennial scale climate change projections.
    Description: Department of Energy's RGCM Grant Number: DE-SC0012457; Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observation and Modeling Grant Number: PLR-1425989; Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Australian Research Council DECRA Fellowship Grant Number: DE170100184
    Description: 2018-07-31
    Keywords: Meridional overturning circulation ; Southern Ocean ; Circumpolar Deep Water ; Upwelling ; Eddy parameterization ; Ocean modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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