ALBERT

Description: 〈span〉Mantle lithosphere heterogeneities are well documented, are ubiquitous, and have often been thought to control lithosphere-scale deformation. Here, we explore the influence of deep scarring in crustal deformation in three dimensions by considering the Ouachita orogeny in the southeastern United States, an example of a continental collision where mantle structure is present but not previously linked to the regional crustal tectonics. We present state-of-the-art continental compressional models in the presence of inherited three-dimensional lithospheric structure. Our models find that the surface expression of the Ouachita orogeny is localized by, and projected from, the controlling mantle scarring, in keeping with geological and geophysical observations. We are able to produce a large-scale arcuate orogeny with associated basin development appropriate to the Ouachita orogeny, alongside smaller-scale crustal faulting related to the region. This study offers a new and alternative hypothesis to the tectonic history of the Ouachita orogeny, with previous research having focused exclusively on crustal structures. The findings have broad implications, demonstrating the important potential role of the mantle lithosphere in controlling crustal dynamics and highlighting the requirement to consider deeper structure and processes when interpreting tectonic evolution of lithospheric-scale deformation.〈/span〉

Description: Near-surface thrust fault splays and antithetic backthrusts at the tips of major thrust fault systems can distribute slip across multiple shallow fault strands, complicating earthquake hazard analyses based on studies of surface faulting. The shallow expression of the fault strands forming the Seattle fault zone of Washington State shows the structural relationships and interactions between such fault strands. Paleoseismic studies document an ~7000 yr history of earthquakes on multiple faults within the Seattle fault zone, with some backthrusts inferred to rupture in small (M ~5.5–6.0) earthquakes at times other than during earthquakes on the main thrust faults. We interpret seismic-reflection profiles to show three main thrust faults, one of which is a blind thrust fault directly beneath downtown Seattle, and four small backthrusts within the Seattle fault zone. We then model fault slip, constrained by shallow deformation, to show that the Seattle fault forms a fault propagation fold rather than the alternatively proposed roof thrust system. Fault slip modeling shows that back-thrust ruptures driven by moderate (M ~6.5–6.7) earthquakes on the main thrust faults are consistent with the paleoseismic data. The results indicate that paleoseismic data from the back-thrust ruptures reveal the times of moderate earthquakes on the main fault system, rather than indicating smaller (M ~5.5–6.0) earthquakes involving only the backthrusts. Estimates of cumulative shortening during known Seattle fault zone earthquakes support the inference that the Seattle fault has been the major seismic hazard in the northern Cascadia forearc in the late Holocene.

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Abstract〈/div〉Mantle lithosphere heterogeneities are well documented, are ubiquitous, and have often been thought to control lithosphere-scale deformation. Here, we explore the influence of deep scarring in crustal deformation in three dimensions by considering the Ouachita orogeny in the southeastern United States, an example of a continental collision where mantle structure is present but not previously linked to the regional crustal tectonics. We present state-of-the-art continental compressional models in the presence of inherited three-dimensional lithospheric structure. Our models find that the surface expression of the Ouachita orogeny is localized by, and projected from, the controlling mantle scarring, in keeping with geological and geophysical observations. We are able to produce a large-scale arcuate orogeny with associated basin development appropriate to the Ouachita orogeny, alongside smaller-scale crustal faulting related to the region. This study offers a new and alternative hypothesis to the tectonic history of the Ouachita orogeny, with previous research having focused exclusively on crustal structures. The findings have broad implications, demonstrating the important potential role of the mantle lithosphere in controlling crustal dynamics and highlighting the requirement to consider deeper structure and processes when interpreting tectonic evolution of lithospheric-scale deformation.〈/span〉

Description: Plate tectonic reconstructions are usually constrained by the correlation of lineaments of surface geology and crustal structures. This procedure is, however, largely dependent on and complicated by assumptions on crustal structure and thinning and the identification of the continent-ocean transition. We identify two geophysically and geometrically similar upper mantle structures in the North Atlantic and suggest that these represent remnants of the same Caledonian collision event. The identification of this structural lineament provides a sub-crustal piercing point and hence a novel opportunity to tie plate tectonic reconstructions. Further, this structure coincides with the location of some major tectonic events of the North Atlantic post-orogenic evolution such as the occurrence of the Iceland Melt Anomaly and the separation of the Jan Mayen microcontinent. We suggest that this inherited orogenic structure played a major role in the control of North Atlantic tectonic processes.

Description: The Evergreen basin is a 40-km-long, 8-km-wide Cenozoic sedimentary basin that lies mostly concealed beneath the northeastern margin of the Santa Clara Valley near the south end of San Francisco Bay (California, USA). The basin is bounded on the northeast by the strike-slip Hayward fault and an approximately parallel subsurface fault that is structurally overlain by a set of west-verging reverse-oblique faults which form the present-day southeastward extension of the Hayward fault. It is bounded on the southwest by the Silver Creek fault, a largely dormant or abandoned fault that splays from the active southern Calaveras fault. We propose that the Evergreen basin formed as a strike-slip pull-apart basin in the right step from the Silver Creek fault to the Hayward fault during a time when the Silver Creek fault served as a segment of the main route by which slip was transferred from the central California San Andreas fault to the Hayward and other East Bay faults. The dimensions and shape of the Evergreen basin, together with palinspastic reconstructions of geologic and geophysical features surrounding it, suggest that during its lifetime, the Silver Creek fault transferred a significant portion of the ~100 km of total offset accommodated by the Hayward fault, and of the 175 km of total San Andreas system offset thought to have been accommodated by the entire East Bay fault system. As shown previously, at ca. 1.5–2.5 Ma the Hayward-Calaveras connection changed from a right-step, releasing regime to a left-step, restraining regime, with the consequent effective abandonment of the Silver Creek fault. This reorganization was, perhaps, preceded by development of the previously proposed basin-bisecting Mount Misery fault, a fault that directly linked the southern end of the Hayward fault with the southern Calaveras fault during extinction of pull-apart activity. Historic seismicity indicates that slip below a depth of 5 km is mostly transferred from the Calaveras fault to the Hayward fault across the Mission seismic trend northeast of the Evergreen basin, whereas slip above a depth of 5 km is transferred through a complex zone of oblique-reverse faults along and over the northeast basin margin. However, a prominent groundwater flow barrier and related land-subsidence discontinuity coincident with the concealed Silver Creek fault, a discontinuity in the pattern of seismicity on the Calaveras fault at the Silver Creek fault intersection, and a structural sag indicative of a negative flower structure in Quaternary sediments along the southwest basin margin indicate that the Silver Creek fault has had minor ongoing slip over the past few hundred thousand years. Two earthquakes with ~M6 occurred in A.D. 1903 in the vicinity of the Silver Creek fault, but the available information is not sufficient to reliably identify them as Silver Creek fault events.

Description: Gravity and magnetic anomalies suggest that the Olympia structure beneath the southern Puget Lowland (western Washington State, U.S.) vertically displaces Eocene Crescent Formation strata. Northeast of the Olympia structure, middle Eocene Crescent Formation is beneath 4–6 km of Paleogene–Neogene and Quaternary strata of the Tacoma basin, whereas the Crescent Formation is exposed at the surface immediately to the south. Although numerous marine seismic reflection profiles have been acquired near the surface location of the Olympia structure as defined by potential field anomalies, its tectonic character remains enigmatic, in part because inlets of southern Puget Sound are too shallow for the collection of deep-penetration marine seismic profiles across the geophysical anomalies. To supplement existing shallow-marine data near the structure, we acquired 14.6 km of land-based seismic reflection data along a profile that extends from Crescent Formation exposed in the Black Hills northward across the projected surface location of the Olympia structure. The reflection seismic data image the Crescent bedrock surface to ~1 km depth beneath the southern Tacoma basin and reveal the dip on this surface to be no greater than ~10°. Although regional potential field data show a strong linear trend for the Olympia structure that implies folding over a blind thrust and/or bedrock juxtaposed against a weakly to nonmagnetic sediment section, high-resolution magnetic anomaly analysis along the land-based profile suggests that the structure is more complex. Overall, seismic and potential-field profiles presented in this study identify only minor shallow faulting within the projected surface location of the Olympia structure. We suggest that the mapped trace of the Olympia structure along the northern flank of the Black Hills, at least within the study area, is constrained by juxtaposed normal and reversely magnetized Crescent Formation units and minor tectonic deformation of Crescent Formation bedrock.

Description: This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.

Description: Uncertainties in natural hazard risk assessment are generally dominated by the sources arising from lack of knowledge or understanding of the processes involved. There is a lack of knowledge about frequencies, process representations, parameters, present and future boundary conditions, consequences and impacts, and the meaning of observations in evaluating simulation models. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities, even as elicited probabilities rationalized on the basis of expert judgements. This paper reviews the issues raised by trying to quantify the effects of epistemic uncertainties. Such scientific uncertainties might have significant influence on decisions that are made for risk management, so it is important to communicate the meaning of an uncertainty estimate and to provide an audit trail of the assumptions on which it is based. Some suggestions for good practice in doing so are made.

Description: A decline in damaging European windstorms has led to a reduction in insured losses in the 21st century. This decline is explored by identifying a damaging windstorm characteristic and investigating how and why this characteristic has changed in recent years. This novel exploration is based on 6103 high-resolution model-generated historical footprints (1979–2014), representing the whole European domain. The footprint of a windstorm is defined as the maximum wind gust speed to occur at a set of spatial locations over the duration of the storm. The area of the footprint exceeding 20 ms−1 over land, A20, is shown to be a good predictor of windstorm damage. This damaging characteristic has decreased in the 21st century, due to a statistically significant decrease in the relative frequency of windstorms exceeding 20 ms−1 in north-western Europe, although an increase is observed in southern Europe. This is explained by a decrease in the quantiles of the footprint wind gust speed distribution above approximately 18 ms−1 at locations in this region. In addition, an increased variability in the number of windstorm events is observed in the 21st century. Much of the change in A20 is explained by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The correlation between winter total A20 and winter-averaged mean sea-level pressure resembles the NAO pattern, shifted eastwards over Europe, and a strong positive relationship (correlation of 0.715) exists between winter total A20 and winter-averaged NAO. The shifted correlation pattern, however, suggests that other modes of variability may also play a role in the variation in windstorm losses.

Description: The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by targeting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board.