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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-10-24
    Description: It is highly debated whether global warming contributed to the strong hurricane activity observed during the last decade. The crux of the recent debate is the limited length of the reliable instrumental record that exacerbates the detection of possible long-term changes in hurricane activity, which naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO, itself a major mode of climate variability, remains also poorly understood because of limited data. Here, we present the first coral-based proxy record (δ18O) that clearly captures multidecadal variations in the AMO and the hurricane activity. Our record, obtained from a brain coral situated in the Atlantic hurricane domain, is equally sensitive to variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater δ18O, with the latter being strongly linked to precipitation, by this means amplifying large-scale climate signals in coral δ18O. The SST and precipitation signals in the coral provide the longest, thus far, continuous proxy-based record of hurricane activity that interestingly exhibits a long-term increase over the last century. As multidecadal SST variations in this region are closely related to the AMO, this study raises new possibilities to extend the limited observations and to gain new insights into the mechanisms underlying the AMO and long-term hurricane variations.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-10-24
    Description: Understanding the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a significant challenge for climate models, particularly for the tropics. Here we present a new monthly coral Sr/Ca record from the tropical Indian Ocean (Chagos Archipelago) that extends from 1950 to 1995. The coral Sr/Ca ratio shows a stationary relationship with local SST, and documents a warming of 0.3 °C since 1950. Previous work has shown that the δ18O values measured in the same coral core provide a proxy record of precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean. The coral δ18O record shows a nonstationary relationship with local SST, and a correlation between δ18O and SST only emerges in the 1970s. It was proposed that this nonstationary behavior is due to an increase in mean SSTs in the tropical Indian Ocean. During the 1970s, SSTs reached a critical threshold (28.5 °C) beyond which small SST anomalies can have a significant impact on atmospheric convection. As a result, the covariance between SST and precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean increased. Our new Sr/Ca data confirm that the warming of the Indian Ocean during the late twentieth century affects atmospheric convection and rainfall variability. Moreover, our proxy data show that the relationship between SST and precipitation is nonlinear and characterized by threshold behavior.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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