ALBERT

Description: The sea ice formation and dissipation processes are complicated and involve many factors and mechanisms, from the basal growth/melting, the frazil ice formation, the snow ice processes to the dynamic process, etc. The contribution of different factors to the sea ice extent among different models over the Antarctic region has not been systematically evaluated. In this study, we evaluate and quantify the uncertainties of different contributors to the Antarctic Sea ice mass budget among 15 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Results show that the simulated total Antarctic Sea ice mass budget is primarily adjusted by the basal growth/melting terms, the frazil ice formation term and the snow-ice term, whereas the top melting terms, the lateral melting terms, the dynamic process and the evaporation process play secondary roles. In addition, while recent studies indicated that the contributors of the Arctic Sea ice formation/dissipation processes show strong coherency among different CMIP models, our results revealed a significant model diversity over the Antarctic region, indicating that the uncertainties of the sea ice formation and dissipation are still considerable in these state-of-the-art climate models. The largest uncertainties appear in the snow ice formation, the basal melting and the top melting terms, whose spread among different models is of the same order of magnitude as the multi-model mean. In some models, large positive bias in the snow ice terms may neutralize the strong negative bias of the basal/top melting terms, resulting in a similar value of the total Antarctic Sea ice area compared with other models, yet with an inaccurate physical process. The uncertainties in these Antarctic Sea ice formation/dissipation terms highlight the importance of further improving the sea ice dynamical and parameterization processes in the state-of-the-art models.

Description: Some studies have discussed potential influences of Antarctic sea ice anomalies, Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate, individually. However, it is not clear how different combinations of them influence the extratropical SH climate. Here we select three different combinations of strong anomalies in Antarctic sea ice (SI), AMV and/or IPO identified from observations, and investigate their influence on the winter extratropical SH climate using the Community Atmosphere Model. The model results show that atmospheric responses vary with different combinations. When both SI and AMV are in strong positive polarity (SI + AMV), the polar jet shifts equatorward while the subtropical jet shifts poleward, the amplitude of zonal wave number 1 is reduced in high-latitudes with minimal changes in wave number 2, and a north-south circulation dipole occurs in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Different from SI + AMV, when SI is in strong positive polarity and IPO is in strong negative polarity (SI-IPO), the reduction of wave number 1 is dramatically increased, accompanied by remarkably increased wave number 2. The north-south circulation dipole only occurs in the Pacific and is confined to the central and eastern Pacific, whereas the Atlantic is dominated by anomalously anticyclonic circulation. Together, SI + AMV-IPO leads to the largest reduction of wave number 1 in high-latitudes and subtropics, the strongest north-south circulation dipole in the Pacific as well as the Amundsen Sea Low. As a result, the three combinations produce different patterns of surface temperature and precipitation anomalies over Antarctica, Australia and South America.