Publication Date:
2024-01-17
Description:
While originally developed for weather forecasting, the Extreme Forecast index (EFI) concept has found utility in diverse fields. This study marks the inaugural application of EFI principles to numerical ocean forecasting. EFI offers a metric to gauge the forecast's deviation from historical norms specific to the location and time of year. A heightened EFI value signifies that the forecast falls beyond the usual range of variability, signifying a higher probability of extreme conditions. This novel use of EFI stands to benefit oceanographers by identifying significant oceanic events, aiding decision-making, and supporting early warning systems, particularly for extreme marine conditions. It enhances comprehension of forecast uncertainties and facilitates clearer communication of potential risks to the public and stakeholders. Such insights are invaluable for preparedness, coastal management, and mitigating the impact of marine extremes on communities and ecosystems. EFI indices for the Mediterranean Sea are computed using a first implementation of a forecast ensemble system that is being developed for the Mediterranean Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center of the Copernicus Marine Environment Service. This deliverable report presents the first-ever application of the EFI approach to the Mediterranean Sea. After presenting the EFI definition adopted in this study, we discuss its application to sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) extremes. A case studies using ensemble forecasts for the year 2021 are presented and discussed.
Type:
Report
,
NonPeerReviewed
Format:
text
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