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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: A combined GPS velocity solution covering a wide area from Egypt to Middle East allowed us to infer the current rates across the main, already well known, tectonic features. We have estimated 126 velocities from time series of 90 permanent and 36 non permanent GPS sites located in Africa (Egypt), Eurasia and Arabia plates in the time span 1996–2015, the largest available for the Egyptian sites. We have combined our velocity solution in a least-squares sense with two other recent velocity solutions of networks located around the eastern Mediterranean, obtaining a final IGb08 velocity field of about 450 sites. Then, we have estimated the IGb08 Euler poles of Africa, Sinai and Arabia, analyzing the kinematics of the Sinai area, particular velocity profiles, and estimating the 2D strain rate field. We show that it is possible to reliably model the rigid motion of Sinai block only including some GPS sites located south of the Carmel Fault. The estimated relative motion with respect to Africa is of the order of 2–3 mm/yr, however there is a clear mismatch between the modeled and the observed velocities in the southern Sinai sites. We have also assessed the NNE left shear motion along the Dead Sea Transform Fault, estimating a relative motion between Arabia and Africa of about 6 mm/yr in the direction of the Red Sea opening.
    Description: Published
    Description: 231-238
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Africa; Arabia; Sinai; Gulf of Aqaba; Gulf of Suez; GPS; Combined velocity field; Euler poles ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Earthquakes deliver in few seconds the elastic energy accumulated in hundreds of years. Where and when will be the next earthquake remains a difficult task due to the chaotic behaviour of seismicity and the present lack of available tools to measure the threshold of the crustal strength. However, the analysis of the background strain rate in Italy and the comparison with seismicity shows that larger earthquakes occur with higher probability in areas of lower strain rate. We present a statistical study in which a relationship linking the earthquake size (magnitude) and the total strain rate (SR) is found. We combine the information provided by the Gutenberg–Richter law (GR) of earthquake occurrence and the probability density distribution of SR in the Italian area. Following a Bayesian approach, we found a simple family of exponential decrease curves describing the probability that an event of a given size occurs within a given class of SR. This approach relies on the evidence that elastic energy accumulates in those areas where faults are locked and the SR is lower. Therefore, in tectonically active areas, SR lows are more prone to release larger amount of energy with respect to adjacent zones characterised by higher strain rates. The SR map of Italy, compared with 5 years seismicity supports this result and may become a powerful tool for identifying the areas more prone to the next earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 67-75
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Strain rate ; Magnitude ; Gutenberg–Richter law ; Bayesian analysis ; Seismic hazard ; Italian area ; L’ Aquila Emilia earthquakes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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