ALBERT

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Gu, S., Liu, Z., Oppo, D. W., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Jahn, A., Zhang, J., Lindsay, K., & Wu, L. Remineralization dominating the δ13 C decrease in the mid-depth Atlantic during the last deglaciation. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 571, (2021): 117106, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117106.

Description: δ 13 C records from the mid-depth Atlantic show a pronounced decrease during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), a deglacial episode of dramatically weakened Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC). Proposed explanations for this mid-depth decrease include a greater fraction of δ 13 C -depleted southern sourced water (SSW), a δ 13 C decrease in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) end-member, and accumulation of the respired organic carbon. However, the relative importance of these proposed mechanisms cannot be quantitatively constrained from current available observations alone. Here we diagnose the individual contributions to the deglacial Atlantic mid-depth δ 13 C change from these mechanisms using a transient simulation with carbon isotopes and idealized tracers. We find that although the fraction of the low- δ 13 C SSW increases in response to a weaker AMOC during HS1, the water mass mixture change only plays a minor role in the mid-depth Atlantic δ 13 C decrease. Instead, increased remineralization due to the AMOC-induced mid-depth ocean ventilation decrease is the dominant cause. In this study, we differentiate between the deep end-members, which are assigned to deep water regions used in previous paleoceanography studies, and the surface end-members, which are from the near-surface water defined from the physical origin of deep water masses. We find that the deep NADW end-member includes additional remineralized material accumulated when sinking from the surface (surface NADW end-member). Therefore, the surface end-members should be used in diagnosing mechanisms of changes. Furthermore, our results suggest that remineralization in the surface end-member is more critical than the remineralization along the transport pathway from the near-surface formation region to the deep ocean, especially during the early deglaciation.

Description: This work is supported by US National Science Foundation (NSF) P2C2 projects (1401778, 1401802, and 1566432), and the National Science Foundation of China No. 41630527. S.G. is supported by Shanghai Pujiang program.

Description: Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr−1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm−1) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm−1), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (−45.1 ± 50.6 PgC ∘C−1) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (−17.2 ± 5.0 PgC ∘C−1). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 ∘C EgC−1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 ∘C EgC−1) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

Description: We present a new framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2), making use of the surface dataset based on the Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis for driving ocean–sea-ice models (JRA55-do). We motivate the use of OMIP-2 over the framework for the first phase of OMIP (OMIP-1), previously referred to as the Coordinated Ocean–ice Reference Experiments (COREs), via the evaluation of OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations from 11 state-of-the-science global ocean–sea-ice models. In the present evaluation, multi-model ensemble means and spreads are calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations and overall performance is assessed considering metrics commonly used by ocean modelers. Both OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 multi-model ensemble ranges capture observations in more than 80 % of the time and region for most metrics, with the multi-model ensemble spread greatly exceeding the difference between the means of the two datasets. Many features, including some climatologically relevant ocean circulation indices, are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet we could also identify key qualitative improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2. For example, the sea surface temperatures of the OMIP-2 simulations reproduce the observed global warming during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the warming slowdown in the 2000s and the more recent accelerated warming, which were absent in OMIP-1, noting that the last feature is part of the design of OMIP-2 because OMIP-1 forcing stopped in 2009. A negative bias in the sea-ice concentration in summer of both hemispheres in OMIP-1 is significantly reduced in OMIP-2. The overall reproducibility of both seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface height (dynamic sea level) is improved in OMIP-2. These improvements represent a new capability of the OMIP-2 framework for evaluating process-level responses using simulation results. Regarding the sensitivity of individual models to the change in forcing, the models show well-ordered responses for the metrics that are directly forced, while they show less organized responses for those that require complex model adjustments. Many of the remaining common model biases may be attributed either to errors in representing important processes in ocean–sea-ice models, some of which are expected to be reduced by using finer horizontal and/or vertical resolutions, or to shared biases and limitations in the atmospheric forcing. In particular, further efforts are warranted to resolve remaining issues in OMIP-2 such as the warm bias in the upper layer, the mismatch between the observed and simulated variability of heat content and thermosteric sea level before 1990s, and the erroneous representation of deep and bottom water formations and circulations. We suggest that such problems can be resolved through collaboration between those developing models (including parameterizations) and forcing datasets. Overall, the present assessment justifies our recommendation that future model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.

Description: The amplitude of the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 is a diagnostic of seasonal surface–atmosphere carbon exchange. Atmospheric observations show that this quantity has increased over most of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during the last 3 decades, likely from a combination of enhanced atmospheric CO2, climate change, and anthropogenic land use change. Accurate climate prediction requires accounting for long-term interactions between the environment and carbon cycling; thus, analysis of the evolution of the mean annual cycle in a fully prognostic Earth system model may provide insight into the multi-decadal influence of environmental change on the carbon cycle. We analyzed the evolution of the mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 simulated by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) from 1950 to 2300 under three scenarios designed to separate the effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2 fertilization, and land use change. The NH CO2 seasonal amplitude increase in the CESM mainly reflected enhanced primary productivity during the growing season due to climate change and the combined effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition over the mid- and high latitudes. However, the simulations revealed shifts in key climate drivers of the atmospheric CO2 seasonality that were not apparent before 2100. CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition in boreal and temperate ecosystems were the largest contributors to mean annual cycle amplification over the midlatitudes for the duration of the simulation (1950–2300). Climate change from boreal ecosystems was the main driver of Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplification between 1950 and 2100, but CO2 fertilization had a stronger effect on the Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplitude during 2100–2300. Prior to 2100, the NH CO2 annual cycle amplitude increased in conjunction with an increase in the NH land carbon sink. However, these trends decoupled after 2100, underscoring that an increasing atmospheric CO2 annual cycle amplitude does not necessarily imply a strengthened terrestrial carbon sink.

Description: The amplitude of the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 has increased by at least 0.5 % yr−1 over most of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during the last three decades likely from a combination of enhanced atmospheric CO2, climate change, and anthropogenic land use change. We investigated how each of these factors affected the increase in the atmospheric CO2 mean annual cycle amplitude simulated by the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a prognostic coupled climate- carbon cycle model. The simulated amplitude of the NH mean CO2 annual cycle showed a weaker trend than observed, increasing by only 15 % over the period spanning 1950–2010. By 2100, the amplitude rose to 57 % above the present-day baseline (1950–1959), and reached a maximum of 76 % above the baseline around 2250. The amplitude increase in the CESM was mainly driven by climate change and changing atmospheric composition, with the largest amplitude gains occurring in the mid- and high latitudes. In addition, the long-term simulations revealed shifts in key climate drivers of the atmospheric CO2 seasonality that were not apparent before 2100. Climate change from NH boreal ecosystems was the largest driver of Arctic CO2 annual cycle amplification between 1950 and 2100. CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition in the NH boreal and temperate ecosystems contributed the most to the amplitude increase over the midlatitudes through 2300 and over the Arctic after 2100. Greater terrestrial productivity during the growing season contributed the most to the annual cycle amplification over the high latitudes, midlatitudes, and the NH tropics, reflecting lengthening of the growing season rather than the strength of the terrestrial carbon sink. Prior to 2100, CO2 annual cycle amplification occurred in conjunction with an increase in the NH land carbon sink, but the trends decoupled after 2100, underscoring that an increasing atmospheric CO2 annual cycle amplitude is not predicated on a strengthened terrestrial carbon sink.

Description: The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.