ALBERT

Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 1983-2000, doi:10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013.

Description: The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs). The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

Description: RW, G-HP., RAF were supported in part through the Global Carbon Data Management and Synthesis Project of the NOAA Climate Program Office. NG and HG were supported by funds from ETH Zurich and through the FP7 projects CarboChange (Project reference 264879) and GeoCarbon. CS was supported by grants, NSF/OPP 0944761 and NOAA NA12OAR4310058. SCD acknowledges support through the NOAA Climate Process Team activity, NOAA grant NA07OAR4310098. CH and JS were supported through EU FP7 project COMBINE (grant agreement no. 226520), the Research Council of Norway funded project CarboSeason (185105/S30), the Norwegian Metacenter for Computational Science and Storage Infrastructure (NOTUR and Norstore, “Biogeochemical Earth system modeling” projects nn2980k and ns2980k) and the core project BIOFEEDBACK of the Centre for Climate Dynamics (SKD) within the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 6225-6245, doi:10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013.

Description: Ocean ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes of their physical, chemical and biological environment. Among these changes, warming, acidification, deoxygenation and changes in primary productivity by marine phytoplankton can be considered as four of the major stressors of open ocean ecosystems. Due to rising atmospheric CO2 in the coming decades, these changes will be amplified. Here, we use the most recent simulations performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to assess how these stressors may evolve over the course of the 21st century. The 10 Earth system models used here project similar trends in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced primary productivity for each of the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCPs) over the 21st century. For the "business-as-usual" scenario RCP8.5, the model-mean changes in the 2090s (compared to the 1990s) for sea surface temperature, sea surface pH, global O2 content and integrated primary productivity amount to +2.73 (±0.72) °C, −0.33 (±0.003) pH unit, −3.45 (±0.44)% and −8.6 (±7.9)%, respectively. For the high mitigation scenario RCP2.6, corresponding changes are +0.71 (±0.45) °C, −0.07 (±0.001) pH unit, −1.81 (±0.31)% and −2.0 (±4.1)%, respectively, illustrating the effectiveness of extreme mitigation strategies. Although these stressors operate globally, they display distinct regional patterns and thus do not change coincidentally. Large decreases in O2 and in pH are simulated in global ocean intermediate and mode waters, whereas large reductions in primary production are simulated in the tropics and in the North Atlantic. Although temperature and pH projections are robust across models, the same does not hold for projections of subsurface O2 concentrations in the tropics and global and regional changes in net primary productivity. These high uncertainties in projections of primary productivity and subsurface oxygen prompt us to continue inter-model comparisons to understand these model differences, while calling for caution when using the CMIP5 models to force regional impact models.

Description: This work was supported by EU FP7 project CARBOCHANGE (under grant agreement No. 264879), EU FP7 project MEECE (under grant agreement No. 212085), EU FP7 project SOCCLI (under grant agreement No. 317699), and ANR project MACROES. S. C. Doney acknowledges the US National Science Foundation (AGS-1048827). This work has been supported by the Research Council of Norway through the EarthClim (207711/E10) and NOTUR/NorStore projects. M. Vichi acknowledges the support of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA.

Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 12 (2015): 653-679, doi:10.5194/bg-12-653-2015.

Description: The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.

Description: S. Sitch acknowledges financial support by RCUK through NERC (grant no. NE/J010154/). N. Gruber and C. Heinze acknowledge financial support by the European Commission through the EU FP7 projects CARBOCHANGE (grant no. 264879) and GEOCARBON (grant no. 283080). N. Gruber was additionally supported through ETH Zurich. S. C. Doney acknowledges support from the US National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1048827). P. Friedlingstein, A. Arneth, and S. Zaehle acknowledge support by the European Commission through the EU FP7 project EMBRACE (grant no. 282672). A. Arneth and S. Sitch acknowledge the support of the European Commission-funded project LUC4C (grant no. 603542). The research leading to these results received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 238366. A. Ahlström and B. Smith acknowledge funding through the Mistra Swedish Research Programme on Climate, Impacts and Adaptation (SWECIA). C. Heinze acknowledges support from NOTUR/NorStore projects NN2980K and NS2980K.

Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 11 (2014): 6955-6967, doi:10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014.

Description: This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding −0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth 〉500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding −0.2 (−0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

Description: This work was supported through EU FP7 projects EPOCA (grant no. 211384) and CARBOCHANGE (grant no. 264879). D. O. B. Jones was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council as part of the Marine Environmental Mapping Programme (MAREMAP). S. C. Doney acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (AGS-1048827). F. Joos acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation.

Description: © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geoscientific Model Development 9 (2016): 1827-1851, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016.

Description: During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.

Description: This work was supported by H2020 project CRESCENDO “Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach”, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 and by the EU FP7 project CARBOCHANGE “Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate” which received funding from the European community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no. 264879. Jerry Tjiputra acknowledges ORGANIC project (239965/F20) funded by the Research Council of Norway. Christoph Heinze and Jerry Tjiputra are grateful for support through project EVA – Earth system modelling of climate variations in the Anthropocene (229771/E10) funded by the Research Council of Norway, as well as CPU-time and mass storage provided through NOTUR project NN2345K as well as NorStore project NS2345K. Keith Lindsay and Scott C. Doney acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation.