ALBERT

Description: We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10–40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500–2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6–9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Description: Proxy records from a core site off Northwest Africa were generated and compared with data from the subpolar Northeast Atlantic to unravel some main climatic features of interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 11 (423–362 ka). The records point to an almost 25 kyr lasting full interglacial period during stage 11 that was preceded by a considerably long glacial-interglacial transition (Termination V). Off NW Africa, a strong reduction of terrestrially derived iron input is noted after 420 ka suggesting a pronounced increase in continental humidity and vegetation cover over Northwest Africa. In analogy to the Holocene climate of the region, this early wet phase of MIS 11 was likely associated with enhanced influence of the West African monsoon system on the Saharan-Sahel region which led to both a reduction in trade wind intensity off NW Africa and the formation of sapropel S11 in the Mediterranean Sea. A detailed comparison with data from the subpolar North Atlantic indicates a remarkable coherent timing for the main environmental changes in both regions giving evidence for strong interglacial climate connection between the low and high latitude North Atlantic. Although our records of MIS 11 compare well with the Holocene in terms of some major climate characteristics there are distinct differences in the temporal evolution of each peak warm interval. This suggests that care should be taken when using MIS 11 as analogue to forecast future interglacial conditions.