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  • Copernicus Publications (EGU)  (3)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Annales of Geophysicae, 33 . pp. 55-61.
    Publication Date: 2017-04-13
    Description: Slant-integrated water vapor (SIWV) data derived from GPS STDs (slant total delays), which provide the spatial information on tropospheric water vapor, have a high potential for assimilation to weather models or for nowcasting or reconstruction of the 3-D humidity field with tomographic techniques. Therefore, the accuracy of GPS STD is important, and independent observations are needed to estimate the quality of GPS STD. In 2012 the GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) started to operate a microwave radiometer in the vicinity of the Potsdam GPS station. The water vapor content along the line of sight between a ground station and a GPS satellite can be derived from GPS data and directly measured by a water vapor radiometer (WVR) at the same time. In this study we present the validation results of SIWV observed by a ground-based GPS receiver and a WVR. The validation covers 184 days of data with dry and wet humidity conditions. SIWV data from GPS and WVR generally show good agreement with a mean bias of −0.4 kg m−2 and an rms (root mean square) of 3.15 kg m−2. The differences in SIWV show an elevation dependent on an rms of 7.13 kg m−2 below 15° but of 1.76 kg m−2 above 15°. Nevertheless, this elevation dependence is not observed regarding relative deviations. The relation between the differences and possible influencing factors (elevation angles, pressure, temperature and relative humidity) are analyzed in this study. Besides the elevation, dependencies between the atmospheric humidity conditions, temperature and the differences in SIWV are found.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-12-09
    Description: Water vapor plays an important role in meteorological applications; GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) therefore developed a tomographic system to derive 3-D distributions of the tropospheric water vapor above Germany using GPS data from about 300 ground stations. Input data for the tomographic reconstructions are generated by the Earth Parameter and Orbit determination System (EPOS) software of the GFZ, which provides zenith total delay (ZTD), integrated water vapor (IWV) and slant total delay (STD) data operationally with a temporal resolution of 2.5 min (STD) and 15 min (ZTD, IWV). The water vapor distribution in the atmosphere is derived by tomographic reconstruction techniques. The quality of the solution is dependent on many factors such as the spatial coverage of the atmosphere with slant paths, the spatial distribution of their intersections and the accuracy of the input observations. Independent observations are required to validate the tomographic reconstructions and to get precise information on the accuracy of the derived 3-D water vapor fields. To determine the quality of the GPS tomography, more than 8000 vertical water vapor profiles at 13 German radiosonde stations were used for the comparison. The radiosondes were launched twice a day (at 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC) in 2007. In this paper, parameters of the entire profiles such as the wet refractivity, and the zenith wet delay have been compared. Before the validation the temporal and spatial distribution of the slant paths, serving as a basis for tomographic reconstruction, as well as their angular distribution were studied. The mean wet refractivity differences between tomography and radiosonde data for all points vary from −1.3 to 0.3, and the root mean square is within the range of 6.5–9. About 32% of 6803 profiles match well, 23% match badly and 45% are difficult to classify as they match only in parts.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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