ALBERT

Description: Black carbon aerosols (BC) at a London urban site were characterised in both winter- and summertime 2012 during the Clean Air for London (ClearfLo) project. Positive matrix factorisation (PMF) factors of organic aerosol mass spectra measured by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) showed traffic-dominant sources in summer but in winter the influence of additional non-traffic sources became more important, mainly from solid fuel sources (SF). Measurements using a single particle soot photometer (SP2, DMT), showed the traffic-dominant BC exhibited an almost uniform BC core size (Dc) distribution with very thin coating thickness throughout the detectable range of Dc. However, the size distribution of Dc (project average mass median Dc = 149 ± 22 nm in winter, and 120 ± 6 nm in summer) and BC coating thickness varied significantly in winter. A novel methodology was developed to attribute the BC number concentrations and mass abundances from traffic (BCtr) and from SF (BCsf), by using a 2-D histogram of the particle optical properties as a function of BC core size, as measured by the SP2. The BCtr and BCsf showed distinctly different Dc distributions and coating thicknesses, with BCsf displaying larger Dc and larger coating thickness compared to BCtr. BC particles from different sources were also apportioned by applying a multiple linear regression between the total BC mass and each AMS-PMF factor (BC–AMS–PMF method), and also attributed by applying the absorption spectral dependence of carbonaceous aerosols to 7-wavelength Aethalometer measurements (Aethalometer method). Air masses that originated from westerly (W), southeasterly (SE), and easterly (E) sectors showed BCsf fractions that ranged from low to high, and whose mass median Dc values were 137 ± 10 nm, 143 ± 11 nm and 169 ± 29 nm, respectively. The corresponding bulk relative coating thickness of BC (coated particle size/BC core – Dp/Dc) for these same sectors was 1.28 ± 0.07, 1.45 ± 0.16 and 1.65 ± 0.19. For W, SE and E air masses, the number fraction of BCsf ranged from 6 ± 2% to 11 ± 5% to 18 ± 10%, respectively, but importantly the larger BC core sizes lead to an increased fraction of BCsf in terms of mass than number (for W, SE and E air masses, the BCsf mass fractions ranged from 16 ± 6%, 24 ± 10% and 39 ± 14%, respectively). An increased fraction of non-BC particles (particles that did not contain a BC core) was also observed when SF sources were more significant. The BC mass attribution by the SP2 method agreed well with the BC–AMS–PMF multiple linear regression method (BC–AMS–PMF : SP2 ratio = 1.05, r2 = 0.80) over the entire experimental period. Good agreement was found between BCsf attributed with the Aethalometer model and the SP2. However, the assumed absorption Ångström exponent (αwb) had to be changed according to the different air mass sectors to yield the best comparison with the SP2. This could be due to influences of fuel type or burn phase.

Description: Airborne concentrations of the wood smoke tracers, levoglucosan and fine potassium have been measured at urban and rural sites in the United Kingdom alongside measurements with a multi-wavelength aethalometer. The UK sites, and especially those in cities, show low ratios of levoglucosan to potassium in comparison to the majority of published data. It is concluded that there may be two distinct source types, one from wood stoves and fireplaces with a high organic carbon content, best represented by levoglucosan, the other from larger, modern appliances with a very high burn-out efficiency, best represented by potassium. Based upon levoglucosan concentrations and a conversion factor of 11.2 from levoglucosan to wood smoke mass, average concentrations of wood smoke including winter and summer sampling periods are 0.23 μg m−3 in Birmingham and 0.33 μg m−3 in London, well below concentrations typical of other northern European urban areas. There may be a further contribution from sources of potassium-rich emissions amounting to an estimated 0.08 μg m−3 in Birmingham and 0.30 μg m−3 in London. Concentrations were highly correlated between two London sites separated by 4 km suggesting that a regional source is responsible. Data from the aethalometer are either supportive of these conclusions or suggest higher concentrations, depending upon the way in which the data are analysed.

Description: Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it transforms into a disaster issue. The occurrences of drought events usually feature determinacy and randomness. Drought issue has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable economic and social development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources system for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao river basin (DRB) in the northeast China. The results simulated by the GDAI are then compared to observed drought disaster records in DRB. As second, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approach (i.e. the SPI, the PDSI, and the RWD). Then, generalized drought times (GDT), generalized drought duration (GDD), and generalized drought severity (GDS) were calculated by theory of runs. Application of the GDT, the GDD, and the GDS of various drought levels (i.e. mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) to the period 1960–2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them are all distributed in the middle reached of DRB, and change with time. The proposed methodology helps water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, consequently, to make decisions regarding coping with drought issue.

Description: Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960–2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

Description: In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from MAGICC6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 °C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 °C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland melt water of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10%, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm till 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region.

Description: In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 °C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 °C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10%, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions.

Description: This paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since AD 1300, involving: (1) a well-dated, 1.5-year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China (2) links of the δ18O record with regional dry–wet conditions, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China (3) correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) variation. We present a highly precise, 230Th / U-dated, 1.5-year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in the Wuling Mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents indicates that (1) the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon intensity and dry–wet conditions in the Wuling Mountain area. (2) A stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) enhances the tropical monsoon trough controlled by ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), which produces higher spring quarter rainfall and isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the central China. (3) The summer quarter/spring quarter rainfall ratio in central China can be a potential indicator of the EASM strength: a lower ratio corresponds to stronger EASM and higher spring rainfall. The ratio changed from 1 after 1950, reflecting that the summer quarter rainfall of the study area became dominant under stronger influence of the Northwestern Pacific High. Eastern China temperatures varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperatures under stronger solar irradiation, which produced stronger summer monsoons. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating a weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal timescales. On an interannual timescale, dry conditions in the study area prevailed under El Niño conditions, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter conditions in the study area under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods, and vice versa. During cold periods, the Walker Circulation will shift toward the central Pacific under El Niño conditions, resulting in a further weakening of Asian summer monsoons.

Description: Highlight: this paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since 1300 AD, involving: 1. A well-dated, 1.5 year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China; 2. Links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet condition, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China; 3. Correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO index. We present a highly precisely 230Th/U dated, 1.5 year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in Wuling mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents exhibits at least 15 drought events in the Wuling mountain and adjacent areas during the Little Ice Age, in which some of them were corresponding to megadrought events in the broad Asian monsoonal region of China. Thus, the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon precipitation and dry-wet condition in Wuling mountain area. The eastern China temperature varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperature under stronger solar irradiation which produces stronger summer monsoon. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal time scales. On interannual time scale, dry conditions in the studying area were prevailing under El Niño condition, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter condition under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods and vice versa; During cold periods, the Walker circulation will shift toward central Pacific under El Niño condition, resulting further weakening of Asian summer monsoon. However, the δ18O of LHD1 record is positively correlated with temperature after ~1940 AD which is opposite to the δ18O – temperature relationship in earlier time. This anomaly relationship might be caused by the greenhouse-gas forcing.

Description: Airborne concentrations of the wood smoke tracers, levoglucosan and fine potassium have been measured at urban and rural sites in the United Kingdom alongside measurements with a multi-wavelength aethalometer. The UK sites, and especially those in cities, show low ratios of levoglucosan to potassium in comparison to the majority of published data. It is concluded that there may be two distinct source types, one from wood stoves and fireplaces with a high organic carbon content, best represented by levoglucosan, the other from larger, modern appliances with a very high burn-out efficiency, best represented by potassium. Based upon levoglucosan concentrations and a conversion factor of 11.2 from levoglucosan to wood smoke mass, average concentrations of wood smoke including winter and summer sampling periods are 0.23 μg m−3 in Birmingham and 0.33 μg m−3 in London, well below concentrations typical of other northern European urban areas. There may be a further contribution from sources of potassium-rich emissions amounting to an estimated 0.08 μg m−3 in Birmingham and 0.30 μg m−3 in London. Concentrations were highly correlated between two London sites separated by 4 km suggesting that an advected regional source is responsible. Data from the aethalometer are either supportive of these conclusions or suggest higher concentrations, depending upon the way in which the data are analysed.

Description: For the first time, the behaviour of non-refractory inorganic and organic submicron particulate through an entire annual cycle is investigated using measurements from an Aerodyne compact time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (cToF-AMS) located at a UK urban background site in North Kensington, London. We show secondary aerosols account for a significant fraction of the submicron aerosol burden and that high concentration events are governed by different factors depending on season. Furthermore, we demonstrate that on an annual basis there is no variability in the extent of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) oxidation, as defined by the oxygen content, irrespective of amount. This result is surprising given the changes in precursor emissions and contributions as well as photochemical activity throughout the year; however it may make the characterisation of SOA in urban environments more straightforward than previously supposed. Organic species, nitrate, sulphate, ammonium, and chloride were measured during 2012 with average concentrations (±one standard deviation) of 4.32 (±4.42), 2.74 (±5.00), 1.39 (±1.34), 1.30 (±1.52) and 0.15 (±0.24) μg m–3, contributing 43, 28, 14, 13 and 2% to the total submicron mass, respectively. Components of the organic aerosol fraction are determined using positive matrix factorisation (PMF) where five factors are identified and attributed as hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), cooking OA (COA), solid fuel OA (SFOA), type 1 oxygenated OA (OOA1), and type 2 oxygenated OA (OOA2). OOA1 and OOA2 represent more and less oxygenated OA with average concentrations of 1.27 (±1.49) and 0.14 (±0.29) μg m–3, respectively, where OOA1 dominates the SOA fraction (90%). Diurnal, monthly, and seasonal trends are observed in all organic and inorganic species, due to meteorological conditions, specific nature of the aerosols, and availability of precursors. Regional and transboundary pollution as well as other individual pollution events influence London's total submicron aerosol burden. High concentrations of non-refractory submicron aerosols in London are governed by particulate emissions in winter, especially nitrate and SFOA, whereas SOA formation drives the high concentrations during the summer. The findings from this work could have significant implications for modelling of urban air pollution as well as for the effects of atmospheric aerosols on health and climate.