ALBERT

Description: Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA) was introduced by Chang and Wu (2008) to describe the multifractal characteristic of intermittent events. The procedure provides a natural connection between the rank-ordered spectrum and the idea of one-parameter scaling for monofractals. This technique has successfully been applied to MHD turbulence simulations and turbulence data observed in various space plasmas. In this paper, the technique is applied to the probability distributions in the inertial range of the turbulent fluid flow, as given in the vast Johns Hopkins University (JHU) turbulence database. In addition, a new way of finding the continuous ROMA spectrum and the scaled probability distribution function (PDF) simultaneously is introduced.

Description: Intermittent fluctuations are the consequence of the dynamic interactions of multiple coherent or pseudo-coherent structures of varied sizes in the stochastic media (Chang, 1999). We briefly review here a recently developed technique, the Rank-Ordered Multifractal Analysis (ROMA), which is both physically explicable and quantitatively accurate in deciphering the multifractal characteristics of such intermittent structures (Chang and Wu, 2008). The utility of the method is demonstrated using results obtained from large-scale 2-D MHD simulations as well as in-situ observations of magnetic field fluctuations from the interplanetary and magnetospheric cusp regions, and the broadband electric field oscillations from the auroral zone.

Description: Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary Typhoon Morakot hit Southern Taiwan on 8 August 2009 and induced serious flooding and landslides. In this study, the Kao-Ping River watershed was adopted as the study area, and the typical events 2007 Krosa Typhoon and 2009 Morakot Typhoon were adopted to train the susceptibility model. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Kao-Ping River watershed. The rainfall estimates were introduced in the landslide susceptibility model to produce the predictive landslide susceptibility for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. These results can be used for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Kao-Ping River watershed.

Description: It is well known that most MHD shocks observed within 1 AU are MHD fast shocks. Only a very limited number of MHD slow shocks are observed within 1 AU. In order to understand why there are only a few MHD slow shocks observed within 1 AU, we use a one-dimensional, time-dependent MHD code with an adaptive grid to study the generation and evolution of interplanetary slow shocks (ISS) in the solar wind. Results show that a negative, nearly square-wave perturbation will generate a pair of slow shocks (a forward and a reverse slow shock). In addition, the forward and the reverse slow shocks can pass through each other without destroying their characteristics, but the propagating speeds for both shocks are decreased. A positive, square-wave perturbation will generate both slow and fast shocks. When a forward slow shock (FSS) propagates behind a forward fast shock (FFS), the former experiences a decreasing Mach number. In addition, the FSS always disappears within a distance of 150R⊙ (where R⊙ is one solar radius) from the Sun when there is a forward fast shock (with Mach number ≥1.7) propagating in front of the FSS. In all tests that we have performed, we have not discovered that the FSS (or reverse slow shock) evolves into a FFS (or reverse fast shock). Thus, we do not confirm the FSS-FFS evolution as suggested by Whang (1987).

Description: Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) have been identified for the first 8.6 years of the WIND mission, and their magnetic field structures have been parameter-fitted by a static, force free, cylindrically-symmetric model (Lepping et al., 1990) with various levels of success. This paper summarizes various aspects of the results of the model fitting by providing: seven estimated model fit-parameter values for each of the 82 MCs found, their objectively determined quality estimates, closest approach vectors (in two coordinate frames), fit-parameter errors for the cases of acceptable quality (50 cases, or 61%), axial magnetic fluxes, axial current densities, and total axial current - as well as some examples of MC profiles for various conditions and "categories" for each case (e.g. Bz: N→S or S→N, etc.). MC quality is estimated from a quantitative consideration of a large set of parameters, such as the chi-squared of the model fit, degree of asymmetry of the B profile, and a comparison of two means of estimating radius. This set of MCs was initially identified by visual inspection of relevant field and plasma data. Each resulting MC candidate is then tested through the use of the MC parameter model, for various adjusted durations to determine the best fit, which helps to refine the boundary-times. The resulting MC set is called Set 1. Another, larger, set (Set 2) of MCs is identified through an automated program whose criteria are based on general MC plasma and field characteristics at 1AU determined through past experience. Set 1 is almost fully contained within Set 2, whose frequency of occurrence better matches that of the sunspot cycle than Set 1. The difference-set (Set 2-Set 1) is referred to as the magnetic cloud-like (MCL) set, whose members do not very well represent good flux ropes through modeling. We present a discussion of how a MC's front boundary is specifically identified in terms of multi-parameter considerations (i.e. any one or more of: increase in B, directional discontinuity, magnetic hole in B, drop in proton plasma beta, B-fluctuation level change, proton temperature drop, etc.), as well as through the application of the flux rope model. Also presented are examples of unusual MCs, as well as some commonly occurring relationships, such as the existence and frequency (approx. 1/2 the time) of upstream interplanetary shocks, and less frequent internal shocks.

Description: This study is motivated by the unusually low number of magnetic clouds (MCs) that are strictly identified within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as observed at 1 AU; this is usually estimated to be around 30% or lower. But a looser definition of MCs may significantly increase this percentage. Another motivation is the unexpected shape of the occurrence distribution of the observers' "closest approach distances" (measured from a MC's axis, and called CA) which drops off somewhat rapidly as |CA| (in % of MC radius) approaches 100%, based on earlier studies. We suggest, for various geometrical and physical reasons, that the |CA|-distribution should be somewhere between a uniform one and the one actually observed, and therefore the 30% estimate should be higher. So we ask, When there is a failure to identify a MC within an ICME, is it occasionally due to a large |CA| passage, making MC identification more difficult, i.e., is it due to an event selection effect? In attempting to answer this question we examine WIND data to obtain an accurate distribution of the number of MCs vs. |CA| distance, whether the event is ICME-related or not, where initially a large number of cases (N=98) are considered. This gives a frequence distribution that is far from uniform, confirming earlier studies. This along with the fact that there are many ICME identification-parameters that do not depend on |CA| suggest that, indeed an MC event selection effect may explain at least part of the low ratio of (No. MCs)/(No. ICMEs). We also show that there is an acceptable geometrical and physical consistency in the relationships for both average "normalized" magnetic field intensity change and field direction change vs. |CA| within a MC, suggesting that our estimates of |CA|, BO (magnetic field intensity on the axis), and choice of a proper "cloud coordinate" system (all needed in the analysis) are acceptably accurate. Therefore, the MC fitting model (Lepping et al., 1990) is adequate, on average, for our analysis. However, this selection effect is not likely to completely answer our original question, on the unexpected ratio of MCs to ICMEs, so we must look for other factors, such as peculiarities of CME birth conditions. As a by-product of this analysis, we determine that the first order structural effects within a MC due to its interaction with the solar wind, plus the MC's usual expansion at 1 AU (i.e., the non-force free components of the MC's field) are, on average, weakly dependent on radial distance from the MC's axis; that is, in the outer reaches of a typical MC the non-force free effects show up, but even there they are rather weak. Finally, we show that it is not likely that a MC's size distribution statistically controls the occurrence distribution of the estimated |CA|s.

Description: A fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, MHD interplanetary global model (3D IGM) has been used, for the first time, to study the relationship between different forms of solar activity and transient variations of the north-south component, Bz, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at 1 AU. One form of solar activity, the flare, is simulated by using a pressure pulse at different locations near the solar surface and observing the simulated IMF evolution of Bθ (=–Bz) at 1 AU. Results show that, for a given pressure pulse, the orientation of the corresponding transient variation of Bz has a strong relationship to the location of the pressure pulse and the initial conditions of the IMF. Two initial IMF conditions are considered: a unipolar Archimedean spiral with outward polarity and a flat heliospheric current sheet (HCS) with outward polarity in the northern hemisphere and which gradually reverses polarity in the solar equatorial plane to inward polarity in the southern heliospheric hemisphere. The wave guide effect of the HCS is also demonstrated.

Description: A one-dimensional (1-D), time-dependent, adaptive-grid MHD model with solar wind structure has been used in the past to study the interaction of shocks. In the present study, we wish to study some fundamental processes that may be associated with slow shock genesis and their possible interactions with other discontinuities. This adaptive-grid model, suitable for appropriate spatial and temporal numerical simulations, is used for this purpose because its finer grid sizes in the vicinity of the steep gradients at shocks make it possible to delineate the physical parameters on both sides of the shocks. We found that a perturbation with deceleration of solar wind will generate an ensemble consisting of a forward slow shock, a fast forward wave and a reverse slow shock. On the other hand, a perturbation with an increase in acceleration of solar wind will generate both a slow shock and a fast shock. These two perturbations, although not unique, may be representative of momentum and pressure changes at the solar surface. During the transition of a fast shock overtaking a slow shock from behind, the slow shock might disappear temporarily. Also, during the process of the merging of two slow shocks, a slow shock-like structure is formed first; later, the slow shock-like structure evolves into an intermediate shock-like structure. This intermediate shock-like structure then evolves into an intermediate wave and a slow shock-like structure. Finally, the slow shock-like structure evolves into a slow shock, but the intermediate wave disappears by interacting with the non-uniform solar wind. This complex behavior demonstrates the non-unique nature of the formation of slow shocks, intermediate shocks and their derivative structures. We emphasize the main aim of this work to be both: (a) non-unique input physical parameters to explain the paucity of observed slow shocks, as well as (b) the impossibility of backward tracing to the history of input boundary conditions in view of the present inability to describe unambiguous inputs at the Sun.

Description: A scheme is presented whose purpose is twofold: (1) to enable the automatic identification of an interplanetary magnetic cloud (MC) passing Earth from real-time measurements of solar wind magnetic field and plasma quantities or (2) for on-ground post-data collection MC identification ("detection" mode). In the real-time ("prediction") mode the scheme should be applicable to data from a spacecraft upstream of Earth, such as ACE, or to that of any near real-time field and plasma monitoring platform in the solar wind at/near 1AU. The initial identification of a candidate MC-complex is carried out by examining proton plasma beta, degree of small-scale smoothness of the magnetic field's directional change, duration of a candidate structure, thermal speed, and field strength. In a final stage, there is a test for large-scale B-field smoothness within the candidate regions that were identified in the first stage. The scheme was applied to WIND data over the period 1995 through mid-August of 2003 (i.e. over 8.6 years), in order to determine its effectiveness in identifying MC passages of any type (i.e. NS, SN, all S, all N, etc. types). (NS refers to the B component of the magnetic field going from north (+) to south (-) in GSE coordinates.) The distribution of these MC types for WIND is provided. The results of the scheme are compared to WIND MCs previously identified by visual inspection (called MFI MCs) with relatively good agreement, in the sense of capturing a large percentage of MFI MCs, but at the expense of finding a large percentage of "false positives". The scheme is shown to be able to find some previously ignored MCs among the false positives. It should be effective in helping to identify in real time most NS MCs for magnetic storm forecasting. The NS type of MC is expected to be most prevalent in solar cycle 24, which should start around 2007. The scheme is likely to be applicable to solar wind measurements taken well within 1 AU to well beyond it. Keywords. Interplanetary physics (Interplanetary magnetic fields; Solar wind plasma) – Magnetospheric physics (Solar wind-magnetosphere interactions)

Description: We investigated geomagnetic activity which was induced by interplanetary magnetic clouds during the past four solar cycles, 1965–1998. We have found that the intensity of such geomagnetic storms is more severe in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In addition, we affirm that the average solar wind speed of magnetic clouds is faster in solar maximum than in solar minimum. In this study, we find that solar activity level plays a major role on the intensity of geomagnetic storms. In particular, some new statistical results are found and listed as follows. (1) The intensity of a geomagnetic storm in a solar active period is stronger than in a solar quiet period. (2) The magnitude of negative Bzmin is larger in a solar active period than in a quiet period. (3) Solar wind speed in an active period is faster than in a quiet period. (4) VBsmax in an active period is much larger than in a quiet period. (5) Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, Vmax and VBsmax are correlated well with geomagnetic storm intensity, Dstmin during a solar active period. (6) Solar wind parameters, Bzmin, and VBsmax are not correlated well (very poorly for Vmax) with geomagnetic storm intensity during a solar quiet period. (7) The speed of the solar wind plays a key role in the correlation of solar wind parameters vs. the intensity of a geomagnetic storm. (8) More severe storms with Dstmin≤−100 nT caused by MCs occurred in the solar active period than in the solar quiet period.