ALBERT

Description: Projections of future atmospheric composition change and its impacts on air quality and climate depend heavily on chemistry–climate models that allow us to investigate the effects of changing emissions and meteorology. These models are imperfect as they rely on our understanding of the chemical, physical and dynamical processes governing atmospheric composition, on the approximations needed to represent these numerically, and on the limitations of the observations required to constrain them. Model intercomparison studies show substantial diversity in results that reflect underlying uncertainties, but little progress has been made in explaining the causes of this or in identifying the weaknesses in process understanding or representation that could lead to improved models and to better scientific understanding. Global sensitivity analysis provides a valuable method of identifying and quantifying the main causes of diversity in current models. For the first time, we apply Gaussian process emulation with three independent global chemistry-transport models to quantify the sensitivity of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) to important climate-relevant variables, poorly characterised processes and uncertain emissions. We show a clear sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to atmospheric humidity and precursor emissions which is similar for the models, but find large differences between models for methane lifetime, highlighting substantial differences in the sensitivity of OH to primary and secondary production. This approach allows us to identify key areas where model improvements are required while providing valuable new insight into the processes driving tropospheric composition change.

Description: Direct measurements of NOx, CO and aromatic volatile organic compound (VOC) (benzene, toluene, C2-benzenes and C3-benzenes) flux were made for a central area of Beijing using the eddy-covariance technique. Measurements were made during two intensive field campaigns in central Beijing as part of the Air Pollution and Human Health (APHH) project, the first in November–December 2016 and the second during May–June 2017, to contrast wintertime and summertime emission rates. There was little difference in the magnitude of NOx flux between the two seasons (mean NOx flux was 4.41 mg m−2 h−1 in the winter compared to 3.55 mg m−2 h−1 in the summer). CO showed greater seasonal variation, with mean CO flux in the winter campaign (34.7 mg m−2 h−1) being over twice that of the summer campaign (15.2 mg m−2 h−1). Larger emissions of aromatic VOCs in summer were attributed to increased evaporation due to higher temperatures. The largest fluxes in NOx and CO generally occurred during the morning and evening rush hour periods, indicating a major traffic source with high midday emissions of CO, indicating an additional influence from cooking fuel. Measured NOx and CO fluxes were then compared to the MEIC 2013 emissions inventory, which was found to significantly overestimate emissions for this region, providing evidence that proxy-based emissions inventories have positive biases in urban centres. This first set of pollutant fluxes measured in Beijing provides an important benchmark of emissions from the city which can help to inform and evaluate current emissions inventories.

Description: Abundance-based model evaluations with observations provide critical tests for the simulated mean state in models of intercontinental pollution transport, and under certain conditions may also offer constraints on model responses to emission changes. We compile multiyear measurements of peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) available from five mountaintop sites and apply them in a proof-of-concept approach that exploits an ensemble of global chemical transport models (HTAP1) to identify an observational “emergent constraint”. In April, when the signal from anthropogenic emissions on PAN is strongest, simulated PAN at northern midlatitude mountaintops correlates strongly with PAN source–receptor relationships (the response to 20 % reductions in precursor emissions within northern midlatitude continents; hereafter, SRRs). This finding implies that PAN measurements can provide constraints on PAN SRRs by limiting the SRR range to that spanned by the subset of models simulating PAN within the observed range. In some cases, regional anthropogenic volatile organic compound (AVOC) emissions, tracers of transport from different source regions, and SRRs for ozone also correlate with PAN SRRs. Given the large observed interannual variability in the limited available datasets, establishing strong constraints will require matching meteorology in the models to the PAN measurements. Application of this evaluation approach to the chemistry–climate models used to project changes in atmospheric composition will require routine, long-term mountaintop PAN measurements to discern both the climatological SRR signal and its interannual variability.

Description: This study quantifies future changes in tropospheric ozone (O3) using a simple parameterisation of source–receptor relationships based on simulations from a range of models participating in the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF-HTAP) experiments. Surface and tropospheric O3 changes are calculated globally and across 16 regions from perturbations in precursor emissions (NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds – VOCs) and methane (CH4) abundance only, neglecting any impact from climate change. A source attribution is provided for each source region along with an estimate of uncertainty based on the spread of the results from the models. Tests against model simulations using the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 – Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) confirm that the approaches used within the parameterisation perform well for most regions. The O3 response to changes in CH4 abundance is slightly larger in the TF-HTAP Phase 2 than in the TF-HTAP Phase 1 assessment (2010) and provides further evidence that controlling CH4 is important for limiting future O3 concentrations. Different treatments of chemistry and meteorology in models remain one of the largest uncertainties in calculating the O3 response to perturbations in CH4 abundance and precursor emissions, particularly over the Middle East and south Asia regions. Emission changes for the future Evaluating the CLimate and Air Quality ImPacts of Short-livEd Pollutants (ECLIPSE) scenarios and a subset of preliminary Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) indicate that surface O3 concentrations will increase regionally by 1 to 8 ppbv in 2050. Source attribution analysis highlights the growing importance of CH4 in the future under current legislation. A change in the global tropospheric O3 radiative forcing of +0.07 W m−2 from 2010 to 2050 is predicted using the ECLIPSE scenarios and SSPs, based solely on changes in CH4 abundance and tropospheric O3 precursor emissions and neglecting any influence of climate change. Current legislation is shown to be inadequate in limiting the future degradation of surface ozone air quality and enhancement of near-term climate warming. More stringent future emission controls provide a large reduction in both surface O3 concentrations and O3 radiative forcing. The parameterisation provides a simple tool to highlight the different impacts and associated uncertainties of local and hemispheric emission control strategies on both surface air quality and the near-term climate forcing by tropospheric O3.

Description: The Atmospheric Pollution and Human Health in a Chinese Megacity (APHH-Beijing) programme is an international collaborative project focusing on understanding the sources, processes and health effects of air pollution in the Beijing megacity. APHH-Beijing brings together leading China and UK research groups, state-of-the-art infrastructure and air quality models to work on four research themes: (1) sources and emissions of air pollutants; (2) atmospheric processes affecting urban air pollution; (3) air pollution exposure and health impacts; and (4) interventions and solutions. Themes 1 and 2 are closely integrated and support Theme 3, while Themes 1–3 provide scientific data for Theme 4 to develop cost-effective air pollution mitigation solutions. This paper provides an introduction to (i) the rationale of the APHH-Beijing programme and (ii) the measurement and modelling activities performed as part of it. In addition, this paper introduces the meteorology and air quality conditions during two joint intensive field campaigns – a core integration activity in APHH-Beijing. The coordinated campaigns provided observations of the atmospheric chemistry and physics at two sites: (i) the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in central Beijing and (ii) Pinggu in rural Beijing during 10 November–10 December 2016 (winter) and 21 May–22 June 2017 (summer). The campaigns were complemented by numerical modelling and automatic air quality and low-cost sensor observations in the Beijing megacity. In summary, the paper provides background information on the APHH-Beijing programme and sets the scene for more focused papers addressing specific aspects, processes and effects of air pollution in Beijing.

Description: The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry–climate models (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Model time-slice simulations for present-day and end-of-the-21st-century conditions were performed under the Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) climate scenario RCP 8.5. All simulations reveal a strong seasonality in transport, especially over the tropics. The highest CO-tracer mixing ratios aloft occur during boreal winter when strong vertical transport is co-located with biomass burning emission source regions. A consistent and robust decrease in future CO-tracer mixing ratios throughout most of the troposphere, especially in the tropics, and an increase around the tropopause is found across the four CCMs in both winter and summer. Decreases in CO-tracer mixing ratios in the tropical troposphere are associated with reduced convective mass fluxes in this region, which in turn may reflect a weaker Hadley cell circulation in the future climate. Increases in CO-tracer mixing ratios near the tropopause are largely attributable to a rise in tropopause height enabling lofting to higher altitudes, although a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jets may also play a minor role in the extratropical upper troposphere. An increase in CO-tracer mixing ratios also occurs near the Equator, centred over equatorial and Central Africa, extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere. This is most likely related to localised decreases in convection in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), resulting in larger CO-tracer mixing ratios over biomass burning regions and smaller mixing ratios downwind.

Description: Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

Description: Projections of future atmospheric composition change and its impacts on air quality and climate depend heavily on chemistry-climate models that allow us to investigate the effects of changing emissions and meteorology. These models are imperfect as they rely on our understanding of the chemical, physical and dynamical processes governing atmospheric composition, on the approximations needed to represent these numerically, and on the limitations of the observations required to constrain them. Model intercomparison studies show substantial diversity in results that reflect underlying uncertainties, but little progress has been made in explaining the causes of this or in identifying the weaknesses in process understanding or representation that could lead to improved models and to better scientific understanding. Global sensitivity analysis provides a valuable method of identifying and quantifying the main causes of diversity in current models. For the first time, we apply Gaussian process emulation with three independent global chemistry transport models to quantify the sensitivity of ozone and hydroxyl radicals (OH) to important climate-relevant variables, poorly-characterized processes and uncertain emissions. We show a clear sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to atmospheric humidity and precursor emissions which is similar for the models, but find large differences between models for methane lifetime, highlighting substantial differences in the sensitivity of OH to primary and secondary production. This approach allows us to identify key areas where model improvements are required while providing valuable new insight into the processes driving tropospheric composition change.

Description: Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a critical approach in identifying which inputs or parameters of a model most affect model output. This determines which inputs to include when performing model calibration or uncertainty analysis. GSA allows quantification of the sensitivity index (SI) of a particular input – the percentage of the total variability in the output attributed to the changes in that input – by averaging over the other inputs rather than fixing them at specific values. Traditional methods of computing the SIs (e.g. Sobol) involve running a model thousands of times, but this may not be feasible for computationally expensive earth system models. GSA methods that use a statistical emulator in place of the expensive model are popular as they require far fewer model runs. Here, we perform an eight-input GSA on two computationally expensive atmospheric chemistry transport models using emulators that were trained with 80 runs of the models. We consider two methods to further reduce the computational cost of GSA: (1) a dimension reduction approach and (2) an emulator-free approach. When the output of a model is multi-dimensional, it is common practice to build a separate emulator for each dimension of the output space. Here, we use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the output dimension and build an emulator for each of the transformed outputs. We consider the global distribution of the annual column mean lifetime of atmospheric methane, which requires ~ 2000 emulators without PCA, but only 5–40 emulators with PCA. As an alternative, we apply an emulator-free method using a generalised additive model (GAM) to estimate the SIs using only the training runs. Compared to the emulator-only method, the hybrid PCA-emulator and GAM methods are 6 and 30 times quicker, respectively, at computing the SIs for the ~ 2000 methane lifetime outputs. The SIs computed using the two computationally faster methods are almost identical to those computed using the standard emulator-only method.

Description: Rapid economic growth in China over the past 30 years has resulted in significant increases in the concentrations of small particulates (PM2.5) over the city of Beijing. In addition to health problems, high aerosol loading can impact visibility and thus reduce photolysis rates over the city, leading to potential implications for photochemistry. Photolysis rates are highly sensitive not only to the vertical distribution of aerosols but also to their composition, as this can impact how the incoming solar radiation is scattered or absorbed. This study, for the first time, uses aerosol composition measurements and lidar optical depth to drive the Fast-JX photolysis scheme and quantify the photochemical impacts of different aerosol species during the Air Pollution and Human Health (APHH) measurement campaigns in Beijing in November–December 2016 and May–June 2017. This work demonstrates that severe haze pollution events (PM2.5 〉 75 µg m−3) occur during both winter and summer, leading to reductions in O3 photolysis rates of 27 %–34 % (greatest in winter) and reductions in NO2 photolysis of 40 %–66 % (greatest in summer) at the surface. It also shows that in spite of much lower PM2.5 concentrations in the summer months, the absolute changes in photolysis rates are larger for both O3 and NO2. In the winter, absorbing species such as black carbon dominate the photolysis response to aerosols, leading to mean reductions in J[O1D] and J[NO2] in the lowest 1 km of 24 % and 23 %, respectively. In contrast, in the summer, scattering aerosol such as organic matter dominate the response, leading to mean decreases of 2 %–3 % at the surface and increases of 8 %–10 % at higher altitudes (3–4 km). During these haze events in both campaigns, the influence of aerosol on photolysis rates dominates over that from clouds. These large impacts on photochemistry can have significant implications for concentrations of important atmospheric oxidants such as the hydroxyl radical. Idealized photochemical box model studies show that such large impacts on photochemistry could lead to a 12 % reduction in surface O3 (3 % for OH) due to haze pollution. This highlights that PM2.5 mitigation strategies could have important implications for the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere both at the surface and in the free troposphere.