ALBERT

Description: Large volcanic eruptions and their subsequent climate responses are relatively short-lived perturbations to the climate system. They provide an excellent opportunity to understand the response of the climate system to a global radiative forcing and to assess the ability of our climate models to simulate such large perturbations. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in Philippines in June 1991 was one of the strongest volcanic eruptions in the 20th century and this well observed eruption can serve as an important case study to understand the subsequent weather and climate changes. In this paper, the most comprehensive simulations to date of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption are carried out with prescribed volcanic aerosols including observed SSTs, QBO and volcanically induced ozone anomalies. This is also the first attempt to include all the known factors for the simulation of such an experiment. Here, the climate response is evaluated under different boundary conditions including one at a time, thereby, investigating the radiative and dynamical responses to individual and combined forcings by observed SSTs, QBO and volcanic effects. Two ensembles of ten members each, for unperturbed and volcanically perturbed conditions were carried out using the middle atmosphere configuration of ECHAM5 model. Our results show that the pure aerosol response in lower stratospheric temperature is insensitive to the boundary conditions in the tropics and does not show some observed features which results from the boundary conditions. To simulate realistically the lower stratospheric temperature response, one must include all the known factors. The pure QBO and ocean responses are simulated consistent with earlier studies. The dynamical response manifested as the winter warming pattern is not simulated in the ensemble mean of the experiments. Our analysis also shows that the response to El Niño conditions is very strong in the model and that it partially masks the effects due to volcanic forcing.

Description: The QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. In this paper, the sensitivity of the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the tropics and extratropics to different QBO phases is investigated. Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991 during the easterly phase of the QBO at 30 hPa and the phase change to westerly took place in August 1992. Here, the consequences are analyzed if the eruption had taken place in the opposite QBO phase. Hence, in this study simulations are carried out for two cases – one with the observed QBO phase as discussed in part-I of this paper and the other with the opposite QBO phase. The QBO signature in the lower stratospheric temperature is well captured in the pure QBO responses and in the combined (aerosol+ocean+QBO) responses. Our results also show that a deepening of the polar vortex is not simulated during the first winters, but is seen during the second winters irrespective of the QBO phases in the pure QBO responses. However, a strong polar vortex is observed in the second winter when the QBO is in its westerly phase in the combined (aerosol+ocean+QBO) response in agreement with previous studies.

Description: The sensitivity of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the tropics and extratropics to different QBO phases is investigated. Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991 during the easterly phase of the QBO at 30 hPa and the phase change to westerly took place in August 1992. Here, the consequences are analyzed if the QBO phase had been in the opposite phase during the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Hence, in this study, simulations are carried out using the middle atmosphere configuration of ECHAM5 general circulation model for two cases – one with the observed QBO phase and the other with the opposite QBO phase. The response of temperature and geopotential height in the lower stratosphere is evaluated for the following cases – (1) when only the effects of the QBO are included and (2) when the effects of aerosols, QBO and SSTs (combined response) are included. The tropical QBO signature in the lower stratospheric temperature is well captured in the pure QBO responses and in the combined (aerosol + ocean + QBO) responses. The response of the extratropical atmosphere to the QBO during the second winter after the eruption is captured realistically in the case of the combined forcing showing a strengthening of the polar vortex when the QBO is in its westerly phase and a warm, weak polar vortex in the easterly QBO phase. The vortex is disturbed during the first winter irrespective of the QBO phases in the combined responses and this may be due to the strong influences of El Niño during the first winters after eruption. However, the pure QBO experiments do not realistically reproduce a strengthening of the polar vortex in the westerly QBO phase, even though below normal temperatures in the high latitudes are seen in October-November-December months when the opposite QBO phase is prescribed instead of the December-January-February winter months used here for averaging.

Description: The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991 was one of the strongest volcanic eruptions in the 20th century and this well observed eruption can serve as an important case study to understand the subsequent weather and climate changes. In this paper, the most comprehensive simulations to date of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption are carried out with prescribed volcanic aerosols including observed SSTs, QBO and volcanically induced ozone anomalies. This is also the first attempt to include all the known factors for the simulation of such an experiment. Here, the climate response is evaluated under different boundary conditions including one at a time, thereby, investigating the radiative and dynamical responses to individual and combined forcings by observed SSTs, QBO and volcanic effects. Two ensembles of ten members each, for unperturbed and volcanically perturbed conditions were carried out using the middle atmosphere configuration of ECHAM5 general circulation model. Our results show that the simulated climate response that may arise solely from aerosol forcing in lower stratospheric temperature is insensitive to the boundary conditions in the tropics and does not show some observed features such as the temperature signature of the QBO phases. Also, statistically significant positive anomalies in the high latitudes in NH winter of 1991/92 seen in our model simulations with prescribed observed SST and QBO phases as boundary conditions are consistent with the observations. To simulate realistically the lower stratospheric temperature response, one must include all the known factors. The pure QBO and ocean signatures in lower stratospheric temperature are simulated consistently with earlier studies. The indirect effect of the volcanic aerosols manifested as the winter warming pattern is not simulated in the ensemble mean of the experiments. Our analysis also shows that the response to El Niño conditions is very strong in the model and that it partially masks the effects due to volcanic forcing.

Description: Large volcanic eruptions emit huge amounts of sulfur and fine ash into the stratosphere. These products cause an impact on radiative processes, temperature and wind patterns. In simulations with a General Circulation Model including detailed aerosol microphysics, the relation between the impact of sulfur and fine ash is determined for different eruption strengths and locations, one in the tropics and one in high Northern latitudes. Fine ash with effective radii between 1 μm and 15 μm has a lifetime of several days only. Nevertheless, the strong absorption of shortwave and long-wave radiation causes additional heating and cooling of ±20 K/day and impacts the evolution of the volcanic cloud. Depending on the location of the volcanic eruption, transport direction changes due to the presence of fine ash, vortices develop and temperature anomalies at ground increase. The results show substantial impact on the local scale but only minor impact on the evolution of sulfate in the stratosphere in the month after the simulated eruptions.

Description: The chemistry climate model MAECHAM4/ CHEM with interactive and prognostic volcanic aerosol and ozone was used to study the initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a possible Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super eruption. Tropospheric climate anomalies are not analysed since sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. Our experiments show that the global dispersal of a super eruption located at Yellowstone, Wy. is strongly dependent on the season of the eruption. In Northern Hemisphere summer the volcanic cloud is transported westward and preferentially southward, while in Northern Hemisphere winter the cloud is transported eastward and more northward compared to the summer case. Aerosol induced heating leads to a more global spreading with a pronounced cross equatorial transport. For a summer eruption aerosol is transported much further to the Southern Hemisphere than for a winter eruption. In contrast to Pinatubo case studies, strong cooling tendencies appear with maximum peak values of less than −1.6 K/day three months after the eruption in the upper tropical stratosphere. This strong cooling effect weakens with decreasing aerosol density over time and initially prevents the aerosol laden air from further active rising. All-sky net radiative flux changes of less than −32 W/m2 at the surface are about a factor of 6 larger than for the Pinatubo eruption. Large positive flux anomalies of more than 16 W/m2 are found in the first months in the tropics and sub tropics. These strong forcings call for a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/chemistry model to study climate sensitivity to such a super-eruption.

Description: Simulations of tropical volcanic eruptions using a general circulation model with coupled aerosol microphysics are used to assess the influence of season of eruption on the aerosol evolution and radiative impacts at the Earth's surface. This analysis is presented for eruptions with SO2 injection magnitudes of 17 and 700 Tg, the former consistent with estimates of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, the later a near-"super eruption". For each eruption magnitude, simulations are performed with eruptions at 15° N, at four equally spaced times of year. Sensitivity to eruption season of aerosol optical depth (AOD), clear-sky and all-sky shortwave (SW) radiative flux is quantified by first integrating each field for four years after the eruption, then calculating for each cumulative field the absolute or percent difference between the maximum and minimum response from the four eruption seasons. Eruption season has a significant influence on AOD and clear-sky SW radiative flux anomalies for both eruption magnitudes. The sensitivity to eruption season for both fields is generally weak in the tropics, but increases in the mid- and high latitudes, reaching maximum values of ~75 %. Global mean AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies show sensitivity to eruption season on the order of 15–20 %, which results from differences in aerosol effective radius for the different eruption seasons. Smallest aerosol size and largest cumulative impact result from a January eruption for Pinatubo-magnitude eruption, and from a July eruption for the near-super eruption. In contrast to AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies, all-sky SW anomalies are found to be insensitive to season of eruption for the Pinatubo-magnitude eruption experiment, due to the reflection of solar radiation by clouds in the mid- to high latitudes. However, differences in all-sky SW anomalies between eruptions in different seasons are significant for the larger eruption magnitude, and the ~15 % sensitivity to eruption season of the global mean all-sky SW anomalies is comparable to the sensitivity of global mean AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies. Our estimates of sensitivity to eruption season are larger than previously reported estimates: implications regarding volcanic AOD timeseries reconstructions and their use in climate models are discussed.

Description: Simulations of tropical volcanic eruptions using a general circulation model with coupled aerosol microphysics are used to assess the influence of season of eruption on the aerosol evolution and radiative impacts at the Earth's surface. This analysis is presented for eruptions with SO2 injection magnitudes of 17 and 700 Tg, the former consistent with estimates of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, the later a near-"super eruption". For each eruption magnitude, simulations are performed with eruptions at 15° N, at four equally spaced times of year, and sensitivity to eruption season is quantified as the difference between the maximum and minimum cumulative anomalies. Eruption season has a significant influence on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and clear-sky shortwave (SW) radiative flux anomalies for both eruption magnitudes. The sensitivity to eruption season for both fields is generally weak in the tropics, but increases in the mid- and high latitudes, reaching maximum values of ~80 %. Global mean AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies show sensitivity to eruption season on the order of 15–20 %, which results from differences in aerosol effective radius for the different eruption seasons. Smallest aerosol size and largest cumulative impact result from a January eruption for the Pinatubo-magnitude, and from a July eruption for the near-super eruption. In contrast to AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies, all-sky SW anomalies are found to be insensitive to season of eruption for the Pinatubo-magnitude eruption experiment, due to the reflection of solar radiation by clouds in the mid- to high latitudes. However, differences in all-sky SW anomalies between eruptions in different seasons are significant for the larger eruption magnitude, and the ~15 % sensitivity to eruption season of the global mean all-sky SW anomalies is comparable to the sensitivity of global mean AOD and clear-sky SW anomalies. Our estimates of sensitivity to eruption season are larger than previously reported estimates: implications regarding volcanic AOD timeseries reconstructions and their use in climate models are discussed.

Description: The decadal evolution of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice following strong volcanic eruptions is investigated in four climate simulation ensembles performed with the COSMOS-Mill version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The ensembles differ in the magnitude of the imposed volcanic perturbations, with sizes representative of historical tropical eruptions (1991 Pinatubo and 1815 Tambora) and of tropical and extra-tropical "supervolcano" eruptions. A post-eruption Arctic sea-ice expansion is robustly detected in all ensembles, while Antarctic sea ice responds only to supervolcano eruptions, undergoing an initial short-lived expansion and a subsequent prolonged contraction phase. Strong volcanic forcing therefore emerges as a potential source of inter-hemispheric interannual-to-decadal climate variability, although the inter-hemispheric signature is weak in the case of eruptions comparable to historical eruptions. The post-eruption inter-hemispheric decadal asymmetry in sea ice is interpreted as a consequence mainly of the different exposure of Arctic and Antarctic regional climates to induced meridional heat transport changes and of dominating local feedbacks that set in within the Antarctic region. Supervolcano experiments help to clarify differences in simulated hemispheric internal dynamics related to imposed negative net radiative imbalances, including the relative importance of the thermal and dynamical components of the sea-ice response. Supervolcano experiments could therefore serve the assessment of climate models' behavior under strong external forcing conditions and, consequently, favor advancements in our understanding of simulated sea-ice dynamics.

Description: We investigate the various methods currently available for distinguishing between the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño (or "El Niño Modoki") and the canonical El Niño by considering 10 different methods and 5 sea surface temperature (SST) datasets from 1880 to 2010. Years which are classified as CP El Niños with the greatest convergence between method and SST dataset are considered to provide a more robust identification of these events. The results identify 13 yr which are classified the most consistently as CP events: 1885/1886, 1914/1915, 1940/1941, 1958/1959, 1963/1964, 1968/1969, 1977/1978, 1986/1987, 1991/1992, 2002/2003, 2003/2004, 2004/2005 and 2009/2010. Our findings also indicate the persistence of CP events throughout the time period investigated, inciting the role of multidecadal natural climate variability in generating CP El Niños.