ALBERT

Description: Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4 yr−1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget,

Description: Over the past 10 years (2005–2014), ground-level O3 in Hong Kong has consistently increased in all seasons except winter, despite the yearly reduction of its precursors, i.e. nitrogen oxides (NOx =  NO + NO2), total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs), and carbon monoxide (CO). To explain the contradictory phenomena, an observation-based box model (OBM) coupled with CB05 mechanism was applied in order to understand the influence of both locally produced O3 and regional transport. The simulation of locally produced O3 showed an increasing trend in spring, a decreasing trend in autumn, and no changes in summer and winter. The O3 increase in spring was caused by the net effect of more rapid decrease in NO titration and unchanged TVOC reactivity despite decreased TVOC mixing ratios, while the decreased local O3 formation in autumn was mainly due to the reduction of aromatic VOC mixing ratios and the TVOC reactivity and much slower decrease in NO titration. However, the decreased in situ O3 formation in autumn was overridden by the regional contribution, resulting in elevated O3 observations. Furthermore, the OBM-derived relative incremental reactivity indicated that the O3 formation was VOC-limited in all seasons, and that the long-term O3 formation was more sensitive to VOCs and less to NOx and CO in the past 10 years. In addition, the OBM results found that the contributions of aromatics to O3 formation decreased in all seasons of these years, particularly in autumn, probably due to the effective control of solvent-related sources. In contrast, the contributions of alkenes increased, suggesting a continuing need to reduce traffic emissions. The findings provide updated information on photochemical pollution and its impact in Hong Kong.

Description: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) samples collected at Mount (Mt.) Tai in the North China Plain during summer 2014 were analyzed for dicarboxylic acids and related compounds (oxocarboxylic acids and α-dicarbonyls) (DCRCs). The total concentration of DCRCs was 1050±580 and 1040±490 ng m−3 during the day and night, respectively. Although these concentrations were about 2 times lower than similar measurements in 2006, the concentrations reported here were about 1–13 times higher than previous measurements in other major cities in the world. Molecular distributions of DCRCs revealed that oxalic acid (C2) was the dominant species (50 %), followed by succinic acid (C4) (12 %) and malonic acid (C3) (8 %). WRF modeling revealed that Mt. Tai was mostly in the free troposphere during the campaign and long-range transport was a major factor governing the distributions of the measured compounds at Mt. Tai. A majority of the samples (79 %) had comparable concentrations during the day and night, with their day–night concentration ratios between 0.9 and 1.1. Multi-day transport was considered an important reason for the similar concentrations. Correlation analyses of DCRCs and their gas precursors and between C2 and sulfate indicated precursor emissions and aqueous-phase oxidations during long-range transport also likely play an important role, especially during the night. Source identification indicated that anthropogenic activities followed by photochemical aging accounted for about 60 % of the total variance and were the dominant source at Mt. Tai. However, biomass burning was only important during the first half of the measurement period. Measurements of potassium (K+) and DCRCs were about 2 times higher than those from the second half of the measurement period. The concentration of levoglucosan, a biomass burning tracer, decreased by about 80 % between 2006 and 2014, indicating that biomass burning may have decreased between 2006 and 2014.

Description: Multiple trace-gas instruments were deployed during the fourth Fire Lab at Missoula Experiment (FLAME-4), including the first application of proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-TOFMS) and comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography–time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS) for laboratory biomass burning (BB) measurements. Open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (OP-FTIR) was also deployed, as well as whole-air sampling (WAS) with one-dimensional gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis. This combination of instruments provided an unprecedented level of detection and chemical speciation. The chemical composition and emission factors (EFs) determined by these four analytical techniques were compared for four representative fuels. The results demonstrate that the instruments are highly complementary, with each covering some unique and important ranges of compositional space, thus demonstrating the need for multi-instrument approaches to adequately characterize BB smoke emissions. Emission factors for overlapping compounds generally compared within experimental uncertainty, despite some outliers, including monoterpenes. Data from all measurements were synthesized into a single EF database that includes over 500 non-methane organic gases (NMOGs) to provide a comprehensive picture of speciated, gaseous BB emissions. The identified compounds were assessed as a function of volatility; 6–11 % of the total NMOG EF was associated with intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs). These atmospherically relevant compounds historically have been unresolved in BB smoke measurements and thus are largely missing from emission inventories. Additionally, the identified compounds were screened for published secondary organic aerosol (SOA) yields. Of the total reactive carbon (defined as EF scaled by the OH rate constant and carbon number of each compound) in the BB emissions, 55–77 % was associated with compounds for which SOA yields are unknown or understudied. The best candidates for future smog chamber experiments were identified based on the relative abundance and ubiquity of the understudied compounds, and they included furfural, 2-methyl furan, 2-furan methanol, and 1,3-cyclopentadiene. Laboratory study of these compounds will facilitate future modeling efforts.

Description: Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Description: The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (~biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (T-D, exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories, and data-driven approaches (B-U, including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by T-D inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range [540–568]). About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range [50–65 %]). B-U approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1 [596–884]) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the T-D budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the B-U approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from T-D emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (~64 % of the global budget,

Description: The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget,

Description: Over the past ten years (2005–2014), ground-level O3 in Hong Kong has consistently increased in all seasons except winter, despite the yearly reduction of its precursors, i.e., nitrogen oxides (NOx = O + NO2), total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs) and carbon monoxide (CO). To explain the contradictory phenomenon, an observation-based box model (OBM) coupled with CB05 mechanism was applied in order to understand the influence of both locally-produced O3 and regional transport. The simulation of locally-produced O3 showed an increasing trend in spring, a decreasing trend in autumn and no changes in summer and winter. The O3 increase in spring was caused by the net effect of more rapid decrease of NO titration and unchanged TVOC reactivity despite decreased TVOC mixing ratios, while the decreased local O3 formation in autumn was mainly due to the reduction of aromatic VOC mixing ratios and the TVOC reactivity and much slower decrease of NO titration. However, the decreased in-situ O3 formation in autumn was overridden by the regional contribution, resulting in elevated O3 observations. Furthermore, the OBM-derived relative incremental reactivity indicated that the O3 formation was VOC-limited in all seasons, and the long-term O3 formation was more sensitive to VOCs and less to NOx and CO in the past 10 years. In addition, the OBM results found that the contributions of aromatics to O3 formation decreased in all seasons of these years, particularly in autumn, likely due to effective control of solvent-related sources. In contrast, the contributions of alkenes increased, suggesting a continuing need to reduce traffic emissions. The findings provided updated information on photochemical pollution and its impact in Hong Kong.

Description: Peat fires in Southeast Asia have become a major annual source of trace gases and particles to the regional-global atmosphere. The assessment of their influence on atmospheric chemistry, climate, air quality, and health has been uncertain partly due to a lack of field measurements of the smoke characteristics. During the strong 2015 El Niño event we deployed a mobile smoke sampling team in the Indonesian province of Central Kalimantan on the island of Borneo and made the first, or rare, field measurements of trace gases, aerosol optical properties, and aerosol mass emissions for authentic peat fires burning at various depths in different peat types. This paper reports the trace gas and aerosol measurements obtained by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, whole air sampling, photoacoustic extinctiometers (405 and 870 nm), and a small subset of the data from analyses of particulate filters. The trace gas measurements provide emission factors (EFs, g compound per kg biomass burned) for CO2, CO, CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons up to C10, 15 oxygenated organic compounds, NH3, HCN, NOx, OCS, HCl, etc.; up to ~90 gases in all. The modified combustion efficiency (MCE) of the smoke sources ranged from 0.693 to 0.835 with an average of 0.772 ± 0.053 (n = 35) indicating essentially pure smoldering combustion and the emissions were not initially strongly lofted. The major trace gas emissions by mass (EF as g/kg) were: carbon dioxide (1564 ± 77), carbon monoxide (291 ± 49), methane (9.51 ± 4.74), hydrogen cyanide (5.75 ± 1.60), acetic acid (3.89 ± 1.65), ammonia (2.86 ± 1.00), methanol (2.14 ± 1.22), ethane (1.52 ± 0.66), dihydrogen (1.22 ± 1.01), propylene (1.07 ± 0.53), propane (0.989 ± 0.644), ethylene (0.961 ± 0.528), benzene (0.954 ± 0.394), formaldehyde (0.867 ± 0.479), hydroxyacetone (0.860 ± 0.433), furan (0.772 ± 0.035), acetaldehyde (0.697 ± 0.460), and acetone (0.691 ± 0.356). These field data support significant revision of the EFs for CO2 (−8 %), CH4 (−55 %), NH3 (−86 %), CO (+39 %) and other gases compared with widely-used recommendations for tropical peat fires based on a lab study of a single sample published in 2003. BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes) are important air toxics and aerosol precursors and were emitted in total at 1.5 ± 0.6 g/kg. Formaldehyde is probably the air toxic gas most likely to cause local exposures that exceed recommended levels. The field results from Kalimantan were in reasonable agreement with recent (2012) lab measurements of smoldering Kalimantan peat for “overlap species,” lending importance to the lab finding that burning peat produces large emissions of acetamide, acrolein, methylglyoxal, etc., which were not measureable in the field with the deployed equipment and implying value in continued similar efforts. The aerosol optical data measured include EFs for the scattering and absorption coefficients (EF Bscat and EF Babs, m2/kg fuel burned) and the single scattering albedo (SSA) at 870 and 405 nm, as well as the absorption Ångstrӧm exponents (AAE). By coupling the absorption and co-located trace gas and filter data we estimated black carbon (BC) EFs (g/kg) and the mass absorption coefficient (MAC, m2/g) for the bulk organic carbon (OC) due to brown carbon (BrC). Consistent with the minimal flaming, the emissions of BC were negligible (0.0055 ± 0.0016 g/kg). Aerosol absorption at 405 nm was ~52 times larger than at 870 nm and BrC contributed ~96 % of the absorption at 405 nm. Average AAE was 4.97 ± 0.65 (range, 4.29–6.23). The average SSA at 405 nm (0.974 ± 0.016) was marginally lower than the average SSA at 870 nm (0.998 ± 0.001). These data facilitate modeling climate-relevant aerosol optical properties across much of the UV/visible spectrum and the high AAE and lower SSA at 405 nm demonstrate the dominance of absorption by the organic aerosol. Comparing the Babs at 405 nm to the simultaneously measured OC mass on filters suggests a low MAC (~0.1) for the bulk OC, as expected for the low BC / OC ratio in the aerosol. The importance of pyrolysis (at lower MCE), as opposed to glowing (at higher MCE), in producing BrC is seen in the increase of AAE with lower MCE (r2 = 0.65).

Description: Following the recent Global Carbon project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling frameworks) and bottom-up models, inventories, and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seems to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the EDGARv4.2 inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. Though the sectorial partitioning of six individual top-down studies out of eight are not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4, the partitioning derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that, the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. Besides, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. The methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) has not been investigated in detail in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes.