ALBERT

Description: The D/H isotope ratio is used to attribute boundary layer humidity changes to the set of contributing fluxes for a case following a snowstorm in which a snow pack of about 10 cm vanished. Profiles of H2O and CO2 mixing ratio, D/H isotope ratio, and several thermodynamic properties were measured from the surface to 300 m every 15 min during four winter days near Boulder, Colorado. Coeval analysis of the D/H ratios and CO2 concentrations find these two variables to be complementary with the former being sensitive to daytime surface fluxes and the latter particularly indicative of nocturnal surface sources. Together they capture evidence for strong vertical mixing during the day, weaker mixing by turbulent bursts and low level jets within the nocturnal stable boundary layer during the night, and frost formation in the morning. The profiles are generally not well described with a gradient mixing line analysis because D/H ratios of the end members (i.e., surface fluxes and the free troposphere) evolve throughout the day which leads to large uncertainties in the estimate of the D/H ratio of surface water flux. A mass balance model is constructed for the snow pack, and constrained with observations to provide an optimal estimate of the partitioning of the surface water flux into contributions from sublimation, evaporation of melt water in the snow and evaporation from ponds. Results show that while vapor measurements are important in constraining surface fluxes, measurements of the source reservoirs (soil water, snow pack and standing liquid) offer stronger constraint on the surface water balance. Measurements of surface water are therefore essential in developing observational programs that seek to use isotopic data for flux attribution.

Description: The D/H isotope ratio is used to attribute boundary layer humidity changes to the set of contributing fluxes for a case following a snowstorm in which a snow pack of about 10 cm vanished. Profiles of H2O and CO2 mixing ratio, D/H isotope ratio, and several thermodynamic properties were measured from the surface to 300 m every 15 min during four winter days near Boulder, Colorado. Coeval analysis of the D/H ratios and CO2 concentrations find these two variables to be complementary with the former being sensitive to daytime surface fluxes and the latter particularly indicative of nocturnal surface sources. Together they capture evidence for strong vertical mixing during the day, weaker mixing by turbulent bursts and low level jets within the nocturnal stable boundary layer during the night, and frost formation in the morning. The profiles are generally not well described with a gradient mixing line analysis because D/H ratios of the end members (i.e., surface fluxes and the free troposphere) evolve throughout the day which leads to large uncertainties in the estimate of the D/H ratio of surface water flux. A mass balance model is constructed for the snow pack, and constrained with observations to provide an optimal estimate of the partitioning of the surface water flux into contributions from sublimation, evaporation of melt water in the snow and evaporation from ponds. Results show that while vapor measurements are important in constraining surface fluxes, measurements of the source reservoirs (soil water, snow pack and standing liquid) offer stronger constraint on the surface water balance. Measurements of surface water are therefore essential in developing observational programs that seek to use isotopic data for flux attribution.

Description: Glaciar San Rafael in the Northern Patagonian Icefield, with a length of 46 km and an ice area of 722 km2, is the lowest latitude tidewater outlet glacier in the world and one of the fastest and most productive glaciers in southern South America in terms of iceberg flux. In a joint project of the TU Dresden and CECS, spatio-temporal velocity fields in the region of the glacier front were determined in a campaign in austral spring of 2009. Monoscopic terrestrial image sequences were recorded with an intervallometer mode high resolution digital camera over several days. In these image sequences, a large number of glacier surface points were tracked by subpixel accuracy feature tracking techniques. Scaling and georeferencing of the trajectories obtained from image space tracking was performed via a multi-station GPS-supported photogrammetric network. The technique allows for tracking hundreds of glacier surface points at a measurement accuracy in the order of one decimeter and an almost arbitrarily high temporary resolution. The results show velocities of up to 16 m per day. No significant tidal signals could be observed. Our velocities are in agreement with earlier measurements from theodolite and satellite interferometry performed in 1986–1994, suggesting that the current thinning of 3.5 m/y at the front is not due to dynamic thinning but rather by enhanced melting.

Description: Process interactions and chain reactions, the present shift of cryospheric hazard zones due to atmospheric warming, and the potential far reach of glacier disasters make it necessary to apply modern remote sensing techniques for the assessment of glacier and permafrost hazards in high-mountains. Typically, related hazard source areas are situated in remote regions, often difficult to access for physical and/or political reasons. In this contribution we provide an overview of air- and spaceborne remote sensing methods suitable for glacier and permafrost hazard assessment and disaster management. A number of image classification and change detection techniques support high-mountain hazard studies. Digital terrain models (DTMs), derived from optical stereo data, synthetic aperture radar or laserscanning, represent one of the most important data sets for investigating high-mountain processes. Fusion of satellite stereo-derived DTMs with the DTM from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) is a promising way to combine the advantages of both technologies. Large changes in terrain volume such as from avalanche deposits can indeed be measured even by repeat satellite DTMs. Multitemporal data can be used to derive surface displacements on glaciers, permafrost and landslides. Combining DTMs, results from spectral image classification, and multitemporal data from change detection and displacement measurements significantly improves the detection of hazard potentials. Modelling of hazardous processes based on geographic information systems (GIS) complements the remote sensing analyses towards an integrated assessment of glacier and permafrost hazards in mountains. Major present limitations in the application of remote sensing to glacier and permafrost hazards in mountains are, on the one hand, of technical nature (e.g. combination and fusion of different methods and data; improved understanding of microwave backscatter). On the other hand, better dissemination of remote sensing expertise towards institutions involved in high-mountain hazard assessment and management is needed in order to exploit the large potential of remote sensing in this field.

Description: Flood and mass movements originating from glacial environments are particularly devastating in populated mountain regions of the world, but in the remote Mount Cook region of New Zealand's Southern Alps minimal attention has been given to these processes. Glacial environments are characterized by high mass turnover and combined with changing climatic conditions, potential problems and process interactions can evolve rapidly. Remote sensing based terrain mapping, geographic information systems and flow path modelling are integrated here to explore the extent of ice avalanche, debris flow and lake flood hazard potential in the Mount Cook region. Numerous proglacial lakes have formed during recent decades, but well vegetated, low gradient outlet areas suggest catastrophic dam failure and flooding is unlikely. However, potential impacts from incoming mass movements of ice, debris or rock could lead to dam overtopping, particularly where lakes are forming directly beneath steep slopes. Physically based numerical modeling with RAMMS was introduced for local scale analyses of rock avalanche events, and was shown to be a useful tool for establishing accurate flow path dynamics and estimating potential event magnitudes. Potential debris flows originating from steep moraine and talus slopes can reach road and built infrastructure when worst-case runout distances are considered, while potential effects from ice avalanches are limited to walking tracks and alpine huts located in close proximity to initiation zones of steep ice. Further local scale studies of these processes are required, leading towards a full hazard assessment, and changing glacial conditions over coming decades will necessitate ongoing monitoring and reassessment of initiation zones and potential impacts.

Description: Lahars frequently affect the slopes of ice-capped volcanoes. They can be triggered by volcano-ice interactions during eruptions but also by processes such as intense precipitation or by outbursts of glacial water bodies not directly related to eruptive activity. We use remote sensing, GIS and lahar models in combination with ground observations for an initial lahar hazard assessment on Iztaccíhuatl volcano (5230 m a.s.l.), considering also possible future developments of the glaciers on the volcano. Observations of the glacial extent are important for estimations of future hazard scenarios, especially in a rapidly changing tropical glacial environment. In this study, analysis of the glaciers on Iztaccíhuatl shows a dramatic retreat during the last 150 years: the glaciated area in 2007 corresponds to only 4% of the one in 1850 AD and the glaciers are expected to survive no later than the year 2020. Most of the glacial retreat is considered to be related to climate change but in-situ observations suggest also that geo- and hydrothermal heat flow at the summit-crater area can not be ruled out, as emphasized by fumarolic activity documented in a former study. However, development of crater lakes and englacial water reservoirs are supposed to be a more realistic scenario for lahar generation than sudden ice melting by rigorous volcano-ice interaction. Model calculations show that possible outburst floods have to be larger than ~5×105 m3 or to achieve an H/L ratio (Height/runout Length) of 0.2 and lower in order to reach the populated lower flanks. This threshold volume equals 2.4% melted ice of Iztaccíhuatl's total ice volume in 2007, assuming 40% water and 60% volumetric debris content of a potential lahar. The model sensitivity analysis reveals important effects of the generic type of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) used on the results. As a consequence, the predicted affected areas can vary significantly. For such hazard zonation, we therefore suggest the use of different types of DTMs and flow models, followed by a careful comparison and interpretation of the results.

Description: High-mountain areas with glacier and permafrost occurrence are temperature sensitive environments. Climatic changes are, thus, likely to have an effect on slope stability. Several recent events have shown that rock and ice avalanches and related hazards can have severe consequences. For hazard analysis, the processes of slope failure and flow dynamics should therefore be better understood. In this article, recent advances in this field are presented, including high-resolution topographic monitoring of a large Alpine high-mountain flank (Monte Rosa) over the past 50 years and laboratory experiments with rotating drums and numerical modelling. This recent research has revealed important insight into the causes and dynamics of slope instabilities and contributes towards a better understanding of the influence of ice on avalanche dynamics and runout. It is emphasized that high-mountain slope failures need to be viewed from an interdisciplinary perspective, taking a number of process interactions into account.

Description: Recent warming has had enormous impacts on glaciers and high-mountain environments. Hazards have changed or new ones have emerged, including those from glacier lakes that form as glaciers retreat. The Andes of Peru have repeatedly been severely impacted by glacier lake outburst floods in the past. An important recent event occurred in the Cordillera Blanca in 2010 when an ice avalanche impacted a glacier lake and triggered an outburst flood that affected the downstream communities and city of Carhuaz. In this study we evaluate how such complex cascades of mass movement processes can be simulated coupling different physically-based numerical models. We furthermore develop an approach that allows us to elaborate corresponding hazard maps according to existing guidelines for debris flows and based on modelling results and field work.